Bad Moon Rising

Ethiopia is ____________.

2012-01-27T06:59:00.003-07:00

Pick an adjective, any adjective. That's how life is, at one point of the day or another.

Go ahead. "Thrilling"? Sure. "Boring"? Absolutely. "Horrifying"? Definitely. "Beautiful"? Yes. Ethiopia is everything.

Revelations

2012-01-18T12:25:00.003-07:00

Before coming to Addis Ababa, I knew there would be aspects of the experience that I never could have expected or predicted. I read up on the place and the program, pored over the handbook and the cultural orientation guide, conversed with my friend and inspiration Alex, three-time visitor. Still, I knew I’d be stunned by a thing or two.

There have been many mild surprises, of course. The width and breadth of the poverty, for one. The ferocity of the bustle of the city. The sheer scope of giant Addis – much larger than I ever could have imagined. I’ll write about all of these things in future posts. But one largely unexpected thing has dominated life so far here:

Christianity.

I didn’t know it, but I signed up for Camp Jesus.

Alex mentioned that Cherokee had Christian inclinations, more so than they let on, but I never could have expected the Biblical onslaught that has characterized my first week here. God’s will is the reason the other firenjes are here. God’s name comes up every hour of every day and is often the focal point of the conversation or activity we’re engaged in. God’s inspiration created the schools my housemates and I volunteer at. God’s image dominates the streets, schools, stores, and homes of Addis. God’s worship is unquestioned, unswerving, unrelenting.

Ten days ago, the most important religious person in my life was probably Tim Tebow, so this environment has been rather startling.

Friday night I went to this “Small Group” God-praising thing at a nearby house, because a) my alternative option was to stay home and watch “The League” off a zip-drive on my computer and b) there are people staying at this house who I immediately felt a connection to, probably because they seem almost as passionate about games like Settlers of Catan as they do about Jesus. The evening started off with a round-the-circle introductory session where you stated your name, where you were from…and one way in which God had recently touched your life.

Gulp.

Within five seconds, however, I knew what I was going to say. When it got to me, I said I am not a religious person, but I really feel that God brought me here to Ethiopia.

And here’s the thing: it wasn’t bullshit.

I’m 29 years old. I don’t actually like traveling all that much. I live a healthy life in an awesome place. I have plenty of friends and an active social life. And for Godsakes, the NFL playoffs are still going on. Yet here I am in one of the most random places imaginable at one of the most random times possible. Every morning when I step out the gate, smell and hear the city breathing, and watch the people and goats shuffling up the streets of rock, I pause a moment and wonder how in the world I wound up here at this time, what chain of events led me to Addis freaking Ababa, and if I might be dreaming.

There is only one plausible explanation.

God.

Perhaps the word “God” doesn’t quite mean the same thing to me as it does to my housemates. I suppose when I think of the “God” that brought me here, I am just referring to a vague ethereal force that sporadically guides my decisionmaking process. But make no mistake about it – I was brought here. I really can’t connect the dots between “kinda wanting to do something to absolve my guilt about being a mediocre human being” and actually going to Ethiopia by myself for two months. I’m still not sure how that happened. A friend even bet me I wouldn’t get on the plane, then doubled the stakes contingent upon my staying here two weeks. Betting against me was probably the right play, but she didn’t realize she was betting against someone else too.

“God” didn’t just suddenly enter the picture when I stepped onto Ethiopian soil. “God” has been an important part of my life for many years. As long as I can remember, I’ve been a firm believer in things like Virtue, Karma, Judgment, Righteousness and Absolution. I frequently pray, sometimes meditate, often thank the Lord for opportunities. I climb high mountains because they bring me closer to God. I love it when someone says grace before supper. My housemates might think they’re making me uncomfortable doing so before every single meal; little do they know how much I appreciate it.

I am a religious person; I just have never defined myself as one, organized my beliefs into any sort of paradigm, or practiced them in a communal setting. My relationship with God has not been delineated and perhaps never will be. It is only here, in this pious land, amongst these zealous Christians, that I ever gave it much thought.

When I told my mom I was going to Ethiopia this winter, she gave me this book Cutting For Stone, a novel about medicine, Ethiopia, India, family, relationships, and of course, God. Recently, I was struck by a passage from the wise Matron of the Mission Hospital regarding the denominational differences between the Ethiopian masses and the Houston Baptists sponsoring the hospital, a quote that wholely encapsulates my perspective on religion in twenty-six words:

“God will judge us by what we did to relieve the suffering of our fellow human beings. I don’t think God cares what doctrine we embrace.”

The Last Frontier

2012-01-11T08:10:00.006-07:00

I am now in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where I will work 2-3 months at a school for impoverished elementary school students. The program is run through Cherokee Gives Back, the nonprofit arm of a company that attempts to buy, repair, and then sell broken lands throughout the world. I will be working at the Kechene School in one of the poorest neighborhoods in town Monday through Friday, teaching English and other subjects along with some other basic service tasks.

Most people that I have told about the voyage are congratulatory, lauding me for choosing to spend my time helping others. Those who know me best, however, have been more questioning. They know that I am a self-centered person and that I perform no action without first carefully considering its effect on my own disposition. I am excited about the prospect of improving the lives of others, but more intrigued by how this experience can upgrade my own life.

For many years I have felt dissatisfied with my place in the universe. Generally I have blamed this frustration on failure in the two foci of my twenties: my career and my love life. Neither has brought any sort of long-term satisfaction, and I habitually blamed my discontent on the incompletion of these two quests. But the more time has passed, the more experience, aggravation, and triumph I’ve had in these pursuits, the more I’ve realized that it isn’t the alleged “failure” that’s made me disgruntled, it’s my own core soul that disgusts me.

I have plenty of regrets about my career in poker, but the greatest one is that I wasn’t able to fully comprehend and enjoy the considerable and consistent success that I had playing the game. It sickens me that I wasn’t able to appreciate the way I dominated the game for several years, simply because a few other guys out there were dominating it just a little harder. Now, separated from the game by circumstance, choice, and aptitude, it seems ridiculous that I couldn’t continuously smell the roses, that I managed to deceive myself into the belief that my performance was unacceptable merely because I never won a million bucks in one day. Now twelve years since I first started playing, I have observed poker from every vantage point. I understand how exceptional my skills were at the height of my powers, at the moment when the poker boom and my own passion for the game simultaneously, fortuitously climaxed together. I just wish I would have cherished it a little more, because satisfaction is so fleeting in this life.

I have not been in a ton of relationships, but feel like I have accumulated more relationship experience than I’d like to accrue in this lifetime. I’ve been in good relationships and bad ones, great relationships and terrible ones, casual and intimate, oppressor and oppressed, user and used, teacher and student. With all the time I’ve spent considering and acting out relationships, I am still miserably incompetent at them. In truth, “executing” relationships start to finish could be the thing I am worst at in this world. But every time I feel sorry for myself, every time I think of how much pain I’ve endured, I have to remind myself that I have inflicted just as much.

I am no closer to solving the riddles of my future than I was after that fateful week in April when I went from stable and comfortable to single and unemployed. Since then I have flirted with half a dozen different careers – writing, distilling, business, and game design, to name a few – while expending even more effort in the endless search for female companionship.

In 2011 I lost my identity. I had a hard time explaining to myself and others who I was and what I was doing with my life. Not only did that affect my perception in the eyes of others, but as the year wore on and the identity crisis deepened, it ultimately dismembered my self-perception as well. I slipped deeper and deeper into a confusing hole of darkness, surrounded by ghostly skeletons of past, present, and future. In the past I could at least fall back on my craft or my sovereignty; this year, I found myself clutching at shadows. Regaining that identity has to be my primary goal of 2012. Simply put, I need to figure out WTF I want to do with the rest of my life.

In June in Las Vegas my friend and fantasy football rival Alex Case, a veteran of the CGB program and the Kechene School, first told me about his experience in Ethiopia. Right away it sounded like the perfect scenario for me – warm, English-speaking, high-altitude, with little violent crime and the opportunity to teach elementary school. I knew right away I would soon be traveling to Ethiopia, if for no other reason than temporarily beating back the built-up angst I’ve accumulated on the poker circuit. I don’t believe poker is an ignoble profession, but there are many more humane things I could have done with the time.

I feel like this could be the last frontier in the journey to happiness. Lord knows I’ve tried everything else. I don’t expect Ethiopia to make me a happier person, but perhaps time here could provide the attitudinal adjustment necessary to a more contented future. At the very least, I should be able to find out if I want to pursue a career in teaching or social service.

More than anything else, though, I am hoping to escape my own self-obsession. Simply put, I am sick of thinking about ways to make myself happier, weary of considering relationships, tired of endlessly evaluating and writing about myself. It sure would be nice to think about something else for a while.

December Top 15

2012-01-08T23:46:00.006-07:00

15. Jeff Brinkman - Hope's Bench
14. Stereophonics - Roll Up And Shine
13. Queens of the Stone Age - Turnin' On The Screw
12. The Long Winters - Stupid
11. Chris Isaak - Heart Shaped World

10. The Verve - History
9. The Naked And Famous - Girls Like You
8. Collective Soul - December
7. The Raveonettes - The Christmas Song
6. Joy Division - Love Will Tear Us Apart

5. Glen Hansard - All The Way Down
4. Chris Isaak - Kings Of The Highway
3. The Black Keys - Lonely Boy
2. The Black Keys - Little Black Submarines

Song of the Month: Chris Isaak - Wicked Game

Wildcard Picks

2012-01-06T17:07:00.003-07:00

Like:

Lions +10.5 over SAINTS

If forced to choose:

Falcons +3 over GIANTS
TEXANS -4 over Bengals
BRONCOS +8 over Steelers

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 5-4
Like season record: 28-30-2
If forced to choose season record: 95-90-2
All games season record: 128-124-4

2011 Song of the Year

2012-01-05T00:29:00.003-07:00

5. Adele - Rolling In The Deep

4. Steve Earle - Feel Alright

3. Beach House - Zebra

2. Ryan Adams - Lucky Now

1. Nine Inch Nails - All The Love In The World

Postseason Power Rankings

2012-01-03T12:01:00.003-07:00

The Contenders
1. Green Bay (1)
2. New Orleans (2)
3. New England (3)
4. Baltimore (4)
5. Pittsburgh (5)
6. San Francisco (6)

The Sub-Contenders
7. Atlanta (9)
8. New York Giants (7)
9. Detroit (10)

Too Little Too Late
10. Philadelphia (11)
11. San Diego (12)
12. Dallas (8)
13. New York Jets (13)
14. Miami (16)

The Backdoor Dogs
15. Houston (15)
16. Cincinnati (14)

Meh
17. Carolina (17)
18. Tennessee (18)
19. Seattle (19)
20. Oakland (20)
21. Kansas City (22)

The Anomaly
22. Denver (21)

The Best of the Bad
23. Buffalo (24)
24. Washington (23)
25. Arizona (25)
26. Chicago (26)
27. Minnesota (27)

The Really Bad
28. Jacksonville (28)
29. Cleveland (31)
30. Tampa Bay (29)
31. Indianapolis (31)
32. St. Louis (32)

Week Seventeen Picks

2011-12-30T11:13:00.002-07:00

Really Like:
Lions -3 over PACKERS

Like:
TEXANS +1.5 over Titans
Steelers -6.5 over BROWNS
Seahawks +2.5 over CARDINALS

If forced to choose:

Jets +3 over DOLPHINS
VIKINGS -1.5 over Bears
Chiefs +3.5 over BRONCOS
BENGALS +1.5 over Ravens
Colts +3.5 over JAGUARS
Chargers +3 over RAIDERS
Redskins +7.5 over EAGLES
SAINTS -7.5 over Panthers
PATRIOTS -10 over Bills
GIANTS -3 over Cowboys
RAMS +10.5 over Niners
Bucs +11 over FALCONS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 5-3
Like season record: 27-28-2
If forced to choose season record: 89-84-2
All games season record: 121-115-4

Week Seventeen Power Rankings

2011-12-29T23:35:00.002-07:00

The Contenders
1. Green Bay (1)
2. New Orleans (2)
3. New England (3)
4. Baltimore (4)
5. Pittsburgh (5)
6. San Francisco (6)

The Sub-Contenders
7. New York Giants (9)
8. Dallas (8)
9. Atlanta (10)
10. Detroit (13)

Too Little Too Late
11. Philadelphia (10)
12. San Diego (7)
13. New York Jets (12)

Meh
14. Cincinnati (15)
15. Houston (14)
16. Miami (16)
17. Carolina (21)
18. Tennessee (17)
19. Seattle (20)
20. Oakland (19)
21. Denver (18)

The Best of the Bad
22. Kansas City (22)
23. Washington (23)
24. Buffalo (24)
25. Arizona (24)
26. Chicago (25)
27. Minnesota (28)

The Really Bad
28. Jacksonville (29)
29. Tampa Bay (28)
30. Indianapolis (31)
31. Cleveland (30)
32. St. Louis (32)

Two Weeks of Goodness: Day Fourteen

2011-12-27T15:05:00.001-07:00

Santa was always extremely generous while my brother, sister and I were growing up. Year after year, he went all-out. I really never understood how lucky we were until I got a little older.

It's harder to get a ton of stuff for us now that we're adults. Santa now feels sheepish if he doesn't live up to the extravagant standards he set when we were kids. So he wound up giving each of us some cold, hard cash this Christmas, which I then donated to Nothing But Nets.

Four years ago I ran my first experiment in faux altruism and an anonymous commenter recommended I donate to Nothing But Nets. After that NBN became my favorite charity, in large part because they are often able to find donors who will match every contribution made. They currently have a matching donor through the end of the year, so now is a great time to make a donation.

Two Weeks of Goodness: Day Thirteen

2011-12-25T00:22:00.002-07:00

I left the NFL early in the second half of the afternoon games to help with some family stuff surrounding our Christmas Eve gathering. I could have avoided it if I tried, and anyone who reads this blog knows how much an NFL Sunday - or Saturday - means to me.

Week Sixteen Power Rankings & Picks

2011-12-24T01:52:00.004-07:00

Power Rankings

The Contenders
1. Green Bay (1)
2. New Orleans (3)
3. New England (5)
4. Baltimore (2)
5. Pittsburgh (4)
6. San Francisco (6)

The Team Nobody Wants To Play
7. San Diego (13)

The Sub-Contenders
8. Dallas (10)
9. New York Giants (7)
10. Atlanta (11) 1
11. Philadelphia (16)
12. New York Jets (9)
13. Detroit (12)

Meh
14. Houston (8)
15. Cincinnati (14)
16. Miami (17)
17. Tennessee (15)
18. Denver (18)
19. Oakland (19)
20. Seattle (21)

The Best of the Bad
21. Carolina (23)
22. Kansas City (29)
23. Washington (25)
24. Buffalo (22)
25. Chicago (20)
26. Arizona (24)
27. Minnesota (26)

The Really Bad
28. Tampa Bay (27)
29. Jacksonville (28)
30. Cleveland (30)

The Andrew Luck Tankapalooza
31. Indianapolis (32)
32. St. Louis (31)

Week Sixteen Picks

Really Like:

COWBOYS -1 over Eagles
Vikings +7 over REDSKINS
BILLS +3 over Broncos

Like:

BENGALS -4.5 over Cardinals
Raiders +2.5 over CHIEFS
Giants +3 over JETS
TITANS -7 over Jaguars
Chargers +2.5 over LIONS

If forced to choose:

Bucs +7.5 over PANTHERS
SAINTS -7 over Falcons
Niners -1 over SEAHAWKS
Rams +12 over STEELERS
Bears +12 over PACKERS
Texans -7 over COLTS X
PATRIOTS -9 over Dolphins
Browns +12 over RAVENS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 3-2
Like season record: 24-26-2
If forced to choose season record: 86-79-2
All games season record: 113-107-4

Two Weeks of Goodness: Day Twelve

2011-12-23T22:49:00.002-07:00

I surprised my parents by coming over and cleaning the house for a couple hours in preparation for the annual extended family Christmas Eve congregation. I bring little to the table when it comes to carpentry and cooking, but I do have some secret cleaning skills.

Two Weeks of Goodness: Day Eleven

2011-12-23T00:04:00.003-07:00

Today I shoveled a ton of snow off covered sidewalks, stairs, and cars in my neighborhood. It was a thoroughly enjoyable experience, getting some well-rounded exercise while listening to a podcast and watching a gorgeous sunset. I could absolutely work a purely physical job - and wholeheartedly enjoy it - if it did good for the world...and I could listen to podcasts.

Two Weeks of Goodness: Day Ten

2011-12-22T00:31:00.002-07:00

I have been in the market for a nice winter coat for years. A couple years ago, I bought this unsightly blue coat as a stopgap while I searched for The Jacket. I bought it knowing it was hideous, but warm.

A month ago, I decided to stop screwing around and buy a decent jacket. I hunted for a bit and came up with something plausible. I was about to buy it when a special friend stepped in and suggested a better one.

The new jacket is absolutely killing it. It gets favorable comments from everyone I know and many people I don't know. It reminds me of the Gogol story "The Overcoat" that we read in tenth grade English class. I do sort of feel like a different person wearing it, and it's really gotten me thinking. If there was this one aspect of my life that could have been improved that much, there must be others. There are probably a hundred different things I could be doing better; I'm just not aware of most of them.

Self-improvement walks a fine line. Obsessively trying to transform everything about you is a pretentious, circular, and ultimately fruitless quest. For a guy like me, people will quickly recognize those pretenses and disdain overzealous efforts. It's ridiculous to adjust your actual personality. The best way to make changes is to do so organically whenever possible. These are my theories. Consistently implementing them has always been a challenge, even when I recognize my shortcomings.

I dropped the blue jacket off at Coats for Colorado (now at First Presbyterian Church at Walnut & 15th) last night, in large part so I'd have an excuse to wear the new jacket even more.

Two Weeks of Goodness: Day Nine

2011-12-21T13:48:00.002-07:00

I gave a special friend the gift of fostering an orphaned elephant through the David Sheldrick Wildlife Trust. Check it out, it's a really cool program.

Two Weeks of Goodness: Day Eight

2011-12-20T00:05:00.001-07:00

Again, I can't say what I did today because it involved doing something nice for someone who might read this blog.

The Quarterback Rankings

2011-12-19T12:08:00.001-07:00

My full all-encompassing QB rankings, 1-49, for Football Nation.

The Seven Days of Goodness: Day Seven

2011-12-19T00:17:00.003-07:00

On Sundays a bunch of special friends come over to my house to watch football. I've hosted all season, and I do a nice job. In the past, I've been sort of a callous host for my friends. But I've really stepped it up recently. Does being a gracious host count as a good deed? Hard to say. In any case, I've decided to extend the whole project for another week. There are a lot of ideas I haven't executed yet, and I'm enjoying the whole thing more than expected. So I'm counting that as today's good deed, assuming watching football and Survivor all day doesn't count.

The Seven Days of Goodness: Day Six

2011-12-18T02:49:00.003-07:00

I can't publicly post what I did today because the recipient of this good deed could read about it here and it's more righteous if they don't know who did it.

Week Fifteen Picks

2011-12-17T12:51:00.003-07:00

Like:

Bengals -7 over RAMS
BUCS +7 over Cowboys

If forced to choose:

Patriots -7.5 over BRONCOS
CHARGERS +2.5 over Ravens
EAGLES -2.5 over Jets
Steelers +3 over NINERS
Lions PK over RAIDERS
CHIEFS +13.5 over Packers
COLTS +6.5 over Titans
CARDINALS -6.5 over Browns
Jaguars +14 over FALCONS X
GIANTS -6 over Redskins
BILLS -2 over Dolphins
Panthers +6 over TEXANS
VIKINGS +8 over Saints
BEARS -3.5 over Seahawks

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 3-2
Like season record: 24-25-1
If forced to choose season record: 79-72-2
All games season record: 106-99-3

The Seven Days of Goodness: Day Five

2011-12-17T02:08:00.002-07:00

This evening I stopped by Boulder's Sunflower Market to grab a couple things on the way home. I had really forgotten what an awesome grocery store Sunflower is and was pleasantly reminded of their selection (ideal for chefs of every skill level, including the incompetent), prices (signifcantly lower than the average Boulder boutique supermarket), and generally jolly ambience. They have a neat holiday donation a special friend told me about where you can buy a bag of food for the food bank, so I did that.

I had some good ideas for the second deed involving a few different special friends and tried to implement a couple of them, but was sort of stymied. I'll have to get to those later. Instead, I ended up giving some money to the Volunteers of America to battle homelessness.

So far my deeds have been weighted towards cash donations, which certainly wasn't the impetus of the project. It's harder to find service-based donations on short notice than financial ones, but that's the long term goal: a consistent, mutually beneficial, service-based situation where the altruism won't be forced, where the giving will feel like receiving.

The Seven Days of Goodness: Day Four

2011-12-16T02:29:00.004-07:00

This evening I went up to Black Hawk with two special friends and donated a bunch of cash to the locals in the 1-2 no limit hold em game! It was wonderful!

I had planned to donate my winnings to my favorite charity (more on them in a future post) but I had no winnings to speak of so I am going to have to double up on the goodness tomorrow.

Week Fourteen Observations

2011-12-15T17:39:00.001-07:00

My observations on the most exciting week of the NFL season for Football Nation

The Seven Days of Goodness: Day Three

2011-12-15T01:13:00.002-07:00

Today I went to Bonfils and donated blood. My blood is extra special AB+, making me a universal plasma donor, so I simultaneously donate platelets and plasma.

I started giving blood earlier this year. The second time I went in, they had a hard time pinning the vein down and basically stabbed the crap out of both my arms until they finally made a clean connection. After that I horribly dreaded returning, but Bonfils hounded me like Von Miller coming off the edge, and I reluctantly agreed to go back in.

It gets better every time. Today was the smoothest so far. Donating platelets is the ultimate activity for the lazy philanthropist. You basically lie there for two hours clutching a comforting bag of warm water, watching movies (I've been watching The Lord of the Rings movies at Bonfils and am now halfway through The Two Towers), drinking juice, eating goldfish and being pampered. It hurts at about a 2/10, more a vague unpleasantness than any real pain. After that you get to hang out in the cantina drinking and eating (ice cream sandwiches in the summer!) and feeling good about yourself. And today someone told me that when they tell you not to drink alcohol afterwards until you've eaten a full meal, that really means "one drink will get you hammered, try it out." I'm telling you guys, it's a dream scenario for the faux altruist.

The Seven Days of Goodness: Day Two

2011-12-14T01:51:00.003-07:00

I delivered ibuprofen, lotion, q-tips, disposable razors, shaving cream, deodorant, toothbrushes and toothpaste to the Boulder Shelter for the Homeless on north Broadway. I had never been there before, and was struck by its urbane environment. It seemed like the kind of place I could spend some time volunteering - in the idyllic vision I have for the Future Life. It's a vision I've had for a while, but most of the time, it's been merely a vision.

If I was truly altruistic, I would naturally volunteer at places like the homeless shelter and I would have been doing so for years. And I certainly wouldn't feel the need to blog for a week about what great stuff I was doing. I'm not that person and never have been.

But I want to be that person. I don't have a clue what I'm doing. If not for the ingenuity and guidance of a special friend whose knowledge and experience in the altruistic dwarfs mine, I wouldn't even be able to come up with seven different things to do this week. I really do want to make the world a better place. Whether that's legitimate altruism or the unsatiated frustration of my own parasitic tendencies is up for debate. In any case, I want to learn. That's the premise of this stunt - learning to be better, even if the method isn't organic. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

Frankenstein's Monster Lives

2011-12-13T11:46:00.001-07:00

My thoughts on the flickering playoff hopes of the Philadelphia Eagles

The Seven Days of Goodness

2011-12-13T00:30:00.004-07:00

Zack & I had grand plans to do some good for the world Saturday night, but were so inept that our best intentions turned into Old Speckled Hens and Boddingtons at The Hungry Toad within forty five minutes. There, we discussed our fail and made an agreement to atone for it by performing a good deed every day this week - "good deed" defined as something we wouldn't carry out in normal everyday life. Zack also had the bright idea I could blog the event, to breathe some life into its moribund, pigskin-encrusted annals and make us look like gracious, non-degenerate members of society.

For the first day, I donated a few items to the Boulder Humane Society from their wishlist on Amazon. I went to the Humane Society seven times (and scanned their website every day for six weeks) before emerging with Bailey, so I've always felt indebted. That's not to mention how that seventh trip forever changed my life for the better.

Here's to the Humane Society and all the wonderful people who work and volunteer there.

The Mile High Messiah

2011-12-11T22:16:00.001-07:00

There comes a point where you know you shouldn't believe anymore. But you do still believe. And then it happens. And your faith deepens.

Week Fourteen Picks

2011-12-09T13:06:00.003-07:00

Like:

BRONCOS -3.5 over Bears
Giants +4.5 over COWBOYS
Colts +16.5 over RAVENS
BENGALS -2.5 over Texans
TITANS +3.5 over Saints

If forced to choose:

Bucs -3 over JAGUARS
Niners -4 over CARDINALS
Falcons -3 over PANTHERS
LIONS -10 over Vikings
Bills +7 over CHARGERS
Patriots -7.5 over REDSKINS
Eagles +3 over DOLPHINS
SEAHAWKS -10.5 over Rams
Raiders +11.5 over PACKERS
JETS -10.5 over Chiefs
Browns +14 over STEELERS $

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 3-2
Like season record: 22-22-1
If forced to choose season record: 74-66-2
All games season record: 99-90-2

Week Thirteen Observations

2011-12-09T11:52:00.002-07:00

My Week Thirteen Observations for Football Nation, including a surprise Coach of the Year candidate and the weekly power rankings.

Lessons Learned From Hidden Immunity Idols

2011-12-06T23:19:00.005-07:00

Survivor first introduced the hidden immunity idol in its eleventh season. The hidden immunity idol is a talisman hidden near the camp which provides a one-time antidote from being voted out if revealed immediately after the fatal vote. When used properly, it's an extra life in a game of survival, the most powerful tool one can attain in the quest for a million dollars.

The logical thing to do after finding the hidden immunity idol is to hide it, shut your mouth, wait until you are on the chopping block, then play the idol to simultaneously save yourself and off your nemesis.

Almost without fail, however, the castaway who discovers the hidden immunity idol ends up spilling the beans to his tribemates. The usual pattern: one castaway finds the hidden immunity idol up in a tree or under a rock, celebrates gleefully with the cameraman, gives an emotional interview about the power of the idol and her newfound position in the game, sits on it contentedly for a day or two, then reveals it to multiple competitors under the pretense of currying favor and building alliances.

There are many fascinating aspects to Survivor, but perhaps the most compelling is watching how people deal with the extreme but extremely finite desolation. All the castaways are thrust into a physically, mentally, and socially exhausting crucible without any relationship to their teammates/adversaries, without a friend in the world. There is a million dollar prize at the finish line, but 90% of contestants lose sight of that goal and make decisions to placate temporary human relationships that will be irrelevant within a week or two. The choices they make will affect the rest of their lives, yet they often make the ones that will only benefit them for a few days. Loneliness, even in its most temporary form, is just too hard for most people to face. Consciously or subconsciously, they'll make any sacrifice for companionship, however fleeting it may be. Even the diabolical Russell Hantz couldn't keep his idols to himself.

The notable exception came last season, when Boston Rob Mariano found the idol early on and hid it until the last moment it was playable. Rob credited his performance, the most dominant start-to-finish run in Survivor's 23 seasons, to the strength his family gave him while cast away. Rob played the most heartlessly efficient, singularly focused game in Survivor history, but only because he never felt alone.

November Top 15

2011-12-05T09:43:00.007-07:00

15. Rodney Crowell - Still Learning How To Fly
14. Ryan Adams - Chains of Love
13. U2 - With Or Without You
12. Fountains of Wayne - The Summer Place
11. The Naked And Famous - Girls Like You

10. The Rolling Stones - Play With Fire
9. Augustana - Steal Your Heart
8. Augustana - Borrowed Time
7. Rogue Wave - Bird on a Wire
6. The Rolling Stones - You Can't Always Get What You Want

5. Ryan Adams - Lucky Now
4. Travis - Somewhere Else
3. Liars - The Other Side of Mt. Heart Attack
2. Augustana - Shot In The Dark

Song of the Month: Bee Gees - To Love Somebody

Week Thirteen Picks

2011-12-02T11:33:00.003-07:00

Really Like:

Ravens -6.5 over BROWNS

Like:

BUCS -3 over Panthers
GIANTS +6.5 over Packers
Raiders +3 over DOLPHINS
Broncos +2 over VIKINGS
Cowboys -4 over CARDINALS

If forced to choose:

JAGUARS +3 over Chargers
SEAHAWKS +3 over Eagles $
Lions +8.5 over SAINTS
TEXANS +2.5 over Falcons
Jets -2.5 over REDSKINS
BILLS -2 over Titans
Bengals +7 over STEELERS
Colts +20 over PATRIOTS
BEARS -7 over Chiefs
Rams +13.5 over NINERS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 2-2
Like season record: 20-19-1
If forced to choose season record: 70-60-2
All games season record: 92-81-3

Week Twelve Observations

2011-12-01T10:10:00.002-07:00

31 observations on the twelfth week of the NFL season for Football Nation, plus the weekly power rankings.

The Wide Receiver Rankings

2011-11-28T12:37:00.002-07:00

Here are my NFL wide receiver rankings, 1-100, that I wrote up for Football Nation a couple weeks ago.

Week Twelve Picks

2011-11-26T18:01:00.004-07:00

Like:

BENGALS -7 over Browns

If forced to choose:

Cardinals +2.5 over RAMS
Broncos +5.5 over CHARGERS
COLTS +3.5 over Panthers
Giants +7.5 over SAINTS
Texans -6 over JAGUARS
FALCONS -9.5 over Vikings
Redskins +3 over SEAHAWKS
CHIEFS +10.5 over Steelers
TITANS -3 over Bucs
LIONS +6.5 over Packers X
Bills +9.5 over JETS
Bears +3 over RAIDERS
Dolphins +6.5 over COWBOYS $
Patriots -3 over EAGLES
Niners +3.5 over RAVENS X

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 2-2
Like season record: 20-18-1
If forced to choose season record: 60-55-2
All games season record: 82-75-3

Week Eleven Observations

2011-11-23T01:16:00.003-07:00

Here are my Week Eleven Observations for Football Nation. I'm having a hard time distinguishing amongst the second tier of teams in the power rankings.

The Ugly Girl

2011-11-21T18:04:00.002-07:00

Here's a column I wrote last week for Football Nation on the Denver Broncos. It's the best thing I've written in a while, so check it out.

Week Eleven Picks

2011-11-18T18:43:00.004-07:00

Like:

Eagles +5 over GIANTS

If forced to choose:

LIONS -6.5 over Panthers
REDSKINS +7 over Cowboys
Bills +2 over DOLPHINS
BEARS -3.5 over Chargers
PATRIOTS -14.5 over Chiefs
BROWNS -1 over Jaguars
Titans +6 over FALCONS
Cardinals +10 over NINERS
BRONCOS +6 over Jets $
Bucs +14 over PACKERS
RAMS -3 over Seahawks
RAVENS -6.5 over Bengals
Raiders +1.5 over VIKINGS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 2-2
Like season record: 19-18-1
If forced to choose season record: 51-52-1
All games season record: 72-72-2

Week Ten Observations

2011-11-17T09:21:00.001-07:00

Observations from a dynamic Week Ten in the NFL for Football Nation

Wise Words From Coach

2011-11-17T00:05:00.002-07:00

"I've been made fun of my whole life, dude, okay? I might be the Dragonslayer now, but I know what it feels like to be superior, in one way, to people - and they know it, so they find ways that you're inferior to cut you down. I know what that feels like, man. But you have a chance to change the game for yourself."

Week Ten Picks

2011-11-12T08:59:00.003-07:00

Really Like:

Rams +2.5 over BROWNS
COLTS +3 over Jaguars

Like:

CHIEFS -3 over Broncos
Patriots +2.5 over JETS

If forced to choose:

Titans +3.5 over PANTHERS
CHARGERS -7 over Raiders X
SEAHAWKS +6.5 over Ravens
Giants +4 over NINERS
Texans -3.5 over BUCS
Cardinals +13.5 over EAGLES
Lions +2.5 over BEARS
Saints +1 over FALCONS
Vikings +13 over Packers
Steelers -4 over BENGALS
Redskins +4 over DOLPHINS
COWBOYS -5.5 over Bills

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 1-1
Like season record: 18-17-1
If forced to choose season record: 44-47-1
All games season record: 63-65-2

Week Nine Observations

2011-11-10T09:53:00.002-07:00

My week nine observations on the NFL for Football Nation, including a murky mess of power rankings.

October Top 15

2011-11-09T13:27:00.004-07:00

15. The Modern Lovers - Hospital
14. Graham Parker & The Rumour - Don't Ask Me Questions
13. The Rolling Stones - Satisfaction
12. Duck Sauce - Barbra Streisand
11. Saves The Day - Deranged & Desperate

10. Ryan Adams - Dirty Rain
9. College feat. Electric Youth - A Real Hero
8. Alice in Chains - No Excuses
7. Adele - Rumor Has It
6. Madonna - Material Girl

5. Ryan Adams - Lucky Now
4. Adele - I'll Be Waiting
3. Cracker - Low
2. Ryan Adams - Ashes & Fire

Song of the Month: Adele - Someone Like You

Week Nine Power Rankings & Picks

2011-11-04T15:53:00.005-06:00

Power Rankings

The Juggernaut
1. Green Bay (1)

The Contenders
2. New England (2)
3. Pittsburgh (4)
4. New Orleans (3)
5. Philadelphia (6)
6. Baltimore (8)

Everyone Else
7. San Francisco (9)
8. Buffalo (11)
9. Detroit (12)
10. San Diego (5)
11. Houston (10)
12. Dallas (7)
13. New York Giants (15)
14. New York Jets (13)
15. Atlanta (14)

Offensively Offensive
16. Chicago (16)
17. Tampa Bay (17)
18. Cincinnati (19)
19. Tennessee (18)
20. Oakland (21)

Hearts On Fire
21. Kansas City (22)

The Best of the Bad
22. Carolina (21)
23. Minnesota (24)
24. Washington (23)
25. Miami (25)
26. St. Louis (28)
27. Arizona (26)

The Andrew Luck Tankapalooza
28. Denver (27)
29. Seattle (29)
30. Jacksonville (31)
31. Cleveland (30)
32. Indianapolis (32)

Week Nine Picks

Like:

STEELERS -3.5 over Ravens
PATRIOTS -9 over Giants
EAGLES -7.5 over Bears
SAINTS -8.5 over Bucs

If forced to choose:

TITANS -2.5 over Bengals
Broncos +7 over RAIDERS
Rams +2.5 over CARDINALS
CHARGERS +5.5 over Packers
Falcons -6.5 over COLTS
REDSKINS +4 over Niners
Dolphins +4 over CHIEFS
Seahawks +11 over COWBOYS
BILLS -2.5 over Jets
TEXANS -10.5 over Browns

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 1-1
Like season record: 17-14-1
If forced to choose season record: 39-42-1
All games season record: 57-57-2

Book Update

2011-11-03T01:53:00.001-06:00

The fourth draft of my book is finished and I am now on the hunt for a literary agent. Any contacts and or recommendations would be greatly appreciated.

Week Eight Picks

2011-10-28T19:07:00.002-06:00

Like:

NINERS -8.5 over Browns
RAMS +13.5 over Saints

If forced to choose:

Chargers -3.5 over CHIEFS
Patriots -2 over STEELERS
BRONCOS +2 over Lions
Redskins + 4.5 over BILLS
Dolphins +9 over GIANTS
Cardinals +12 over RAVENS
Vikings +3.5 over PANTHERS
Colts +8.5 over TITANS
Jaguars +9 over TEXANS
EAGLES -3 over Cowboys
SEAHAWKS +2 over Bengals

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 1-1
Like season record: 15-14-1
If forced to choose season record: 35-35-1
All games season record: 51-50-2

The Running Back Rankings

2011-10-27T09:04:00.001-06:00

My comprehensive rankings of all the relevant NFL running backs of 2011.

Week Eight Power Rankings

2011-10-25T01:05:00.004-06:00

The Juggernaut
1. Green Bay (1)

The Contenders
2. New England (2)
3. New Orleans (3)

The Sub-Contenders
4. Pittsburgh (6)
5. San Diego (4)

The Sneakers
6. Philadelphia (7)
7. Dallas (8)

The Undefined
8. Baltimore (5)
9. San Francisco (12)
10. Houston (15)
11. Buffalo (10)
12. Detroit (9)
13. New York Jets (13)
14. Atlanta (14)
15. New York Giants (11)

Offensively Offensive
16. Chicago (18)
17. Tampa Bay (17)
18. Tennessee (16)
19. Cincinnati (21)
20. Oakland (23)

The Best of the Bad
21. Carolina (22)
22. Kansas City (25)
23. Washington (19)
24. Minnesota (24)

Sucky
25. Miami (20)
26. Arizona (26)
27. Denver (27)
28. St. Louis (28)
29. Seattle (29)
30. Cleveland (30)
31. Jacksonville (31)

Lucky
32. Indianapolis (32)

Week Seven Picks

2011-10-21T14:28:00.003-06:00

Like:

DOLPHINS -1 over Broncos
Ravens -7.5 over JAGUARS
Seahawks +3 over BROWNS
Chiefs +4 over RAIDERS
Rams +13.5 over COWBOYS

If forced to choose:

Steelers -4 over CARDINALS
JETS +2 over Chargers
Packers -9 over VIKINGS
SAINTS -13.5 over Colts
Texans +3 over TITANS
Bucs +1 over Bears
PANTHERS -2.5 over Redskins
LIONS -3.5 over Falcons

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 1-1
Like season record: 14-11
If forced to choose season record: 30-32-1
All games season record: 45-44-1

Week Six Observations

2011-10-19T21:54:00.002-06:00

Week Six Observations, including "Vegas Style" power rankings no one wants to admit but wouldn't challenge with their money.

Thoughts on Taking a Piss

2011-10-17T22:40:00.008-06:00

I have been thinking a lot lately about urination. Most of the time you go to the bathroom it is a thoroughly neutral, unmemorable act. Your body tells you it's time to pee. It starts as a faint feeling in your lower abdomen. Usually you just go find somewhere to potty and that's the end of it. You let it out, perhaps while playing Words With Friends, texting, or reading a book. Then you move on with life.

Every once in a while, you find yourself in a situation where you can't just go. The memorable situation for me was on the bus to cross-country meets in high school. We'd hydrate all day, then get on a 90-minute bus ride to Eaglecrest or Cherry Creek or wherever. The end of the ride was misery.

But the payoff was glorious. When you finally get to unleash after stewing about it for an hour or more, grimacing over it, sucking it up into your teeth, feeling that horrific burning/stabbing/throbbing in your bag, it feels marvelous. I can't remember 99.9% of the pees I've taken but I could write books about the 0.1% most desperate defecations of my life.

And that's how it is. All the best things in life are better when you have to earn them, when you go through Hell to get to them, when there's pain before the payoff. The sweet just isn't as sweet without the bitter. If I've learned anything over the last couple years, it's that mobility to the same place is a hundred times better than stagnation at the same place.
___

For those keeping score at home, we've now tackled pooping, vomiting, and peeing in the last couple months. Stay tuned for the bloodletting blog.

Week Six Picks

2011-10-13T23:51:00.003-06:00

Like:

Eagles -2.5 over REDSKINS
Rams +14 over PACKERS

If forced to choose:

BEARS -2.5 over Vikings
LIONS -4 over Niners
Colts +7 over BENGALS
BUCS +4.5 over Saints
Dolphins +6.5 over JETS
STEELERS -12 over Jaguars
Panthers +4.5 over FALCONS
Cowboys +6 over PATRIOTS
Browns +6.5 over RAIDERS
GIANTS -3.5 over Bills
Texans +7.5 over RAVENS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 1-1
Like season record: 13-10
If forced to choose season record: 27-24-1
All games season record: 41-35-1

Week Five Observations

2011-10-13T21:44:00.002-06:00

My Week Five Observations, including power rankings with a newly svelte bottom tier.

Nosedives

2011-10-12T10:07:00.002-06:00

My thoughts on the plights of the Eagles & Colts for Football Nation.

Tim Tebow Returns

2011-10-11T09:46:00.002-06:00

My thoughts on the redawning of the Tim Tebow Era in Denver for Football Nation.

Week Five Picks

2011-10-08T01:34:00.003-06:00

Like:

STEELERS -3.5 over Titans
VIKINGS -3 over Cardinals
Eagles -3 over BILLS
Chiefs +2.5 over COLTS
Bengals +2 over JAGUARS
Chargers -3.5 over BRONCOS
LIONS -5 over Bears

If forced to choose:

TEXANS -4.5 over Raiders
Bucs +3 over NINERS
PANTHERS +6.5 over Saints
FALCONS +5.5 over Packers
Seahawks +9.5 over GIANTS
PATRIOTS -7 over Jets

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 1-1
Like season record: 8-8
If forced to choose season record: 24-21-1
All games season record: 33-30-1

Week Four Observations

2011-10-06T11:15:00.003-06:00

NFL Week Four Observations, with some fantasy advice and power rankings. I shifted to volleyball for the analogy of the week. Hard to say how permanent that will be.

September Top 15

2011-10-05T15:15:00.009-06:00

15. Oasis - Waiting For the Rapture
14. Whiskeytown - Yesterday's News
13. Ryan Adams - Lucky Now
12. The Head and the Heart - Lost in My Mind
11. Whiskeytown - 16 Days

10. Brendan Benson - Folk Singer
9. Brendan Benson - Tiny Spark
8. The Alternate Routes - All That I See
7. Matchbox Twenty - The Difference
6. The Head and the Heart - Down in the Valley

5. Rich Price - Turn Off My Heart
4. The Raveonettes - The Christmas Song
3. Whiskeytown - Excuse Me While I Break My Own Heart Tonight
2. Brendan Benson - Jet Lag

Song of the Month: Whiskeytown - Dancing With the Women at the Bar

Week Four Picks

2011-09-30T00:45:00.003-06:00

Like:

Saints -7 over JAGUARS
RAVENS -3.5 over Jets

If forced to choose:

Steelers +3.5 over TEXANS
Patriots -4.5 over RAIDERS
BUCS -10 over Colts
CHIEFS +2.5 over Vikings
Panthers +6 over BEARS
Falcons -4.5 over SEAHAWKS
RAMS +2.5 over Redskins
Titans PK over BROWNS
BENGALS +3 over Bills
Niners +8 over EAGLES
Giants -1 over CARDINALS
Dolphins +7 over CHARGERS
Lions +2 over COWBOYS
PACKERS -12 over Broncos

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 1-1
Like season record: 6-8
If forced to choose season record: 15-16-1
All games season record: 22-25-1

Week Three Observations

2011-09-28T23:43:00.001-06:00

Fifty observations on Week Three of the NFL season

Week Four Power Rankings

2011-09-26T23:46:00.004-06:00

The Contenders
1. New England (1)
2. Green Bay (2)
3. New Orleans (3)

Issues
4. San Diego (6)
5. Pittsburgh (5)
6. Houston (7)
7. Baltimore (9)
8. Philadelphia (4)
9. Detroit (8)
10. New York Jets (10)

Excitable Boys
11. Tampa Bay (16)
12. New York Giants (19)
13. Dallas (13)
14. Atlanta (11)
15. Buffalo (17)
16. Oakland (18)

Offensively Offensive
17. Chicago (15)
18. Miami (14)
19. Washington (12)

The Best of the Bad
20. Tennessee (20)
21. Minnesota (24)
22. Carolina (27)

The NFC West
23. San Francisco (23)
24. Arizona (21)
25. St. Louis (22)

The Andrew Luck Tankapalooza
26. Denver (26)
27. Cincinnati (28)
28. Cleveland (24)
29. Kansas City (30)
30. Jacksonville (29)
31. Seattle (31)
32. Indianapolis (32)

Week Three Power Rankings And Picks

2011-09-24T11:03:00.004-06:00

Power Rankings

The Juggernaut
1. New England (1)

The Contenders
2. Green Bay (2)
3. New Orleans (3)
4. Philadelphia (4)
5. Pittsburgh (5)
6. San Diego (6)

Playoff Aspirations
7. Houston (12)
8. Detroit (8)
9. Baltimore (7)
10. New York Jets (13)
11. Atlanta (10)

The Jury's Out
12. Washington (15)
13. Dallas (11)
14. Miami (9)
15. Chicago (14)
16. Tampa Bay (16)
17. Buffalo (20)
18. Oakland (22)
19. New York Giants (17)
20. Tennessee (30)

The NFC West
21. Arizona (23)
22. St. Louis (18)
23. San Francisco (24)

The Andrew Luck Tankapalooza
24. Cleveland (19)
25. Minnesota (28)
26. Denver (27)
27. Carolina (25)
28. Cincinnati (26)
29. Jacksonville (21)
30. Kansas City (29)
31. Seattle (31)
32. Indianapolis (32)

Week Three Picks

Really Like:

Dolphins +2.5 over BROWNS

Like:

Patriots -7.5 over BILLS
Redskins +5 over COWBOYS
BENGALS -2.5 over Niners

If forced to choose:

Broncos +7 over TITANS
RAIDERS +3 over Jets
PANTHERS -3.5 over Jaguars
SAINTS -4 over Texans
Chiefs +14.5 over CHARGERS
VIKINGS +3.5 over Lions
Packers -3.5 over BEARS
Steelers -10 over COLTS
Giants +8 over EAGLES
SEAHAWKS +3.5 over Cardinals
RAMS +4 over Ravens
Falcons +2 over BUCS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 0-1
Like season record: 5-6
If forced to choose season record: 6-13-1
All games season record: 11-20-1

Week Two Observations

2011-09-22T17:13:00.001-06:00

The Observations are back, complete with a little fantasy advice and softball analogy of the week.

Week Two Power Rankings And Picks

2011-09-18T00:51:00.004-06:00

Power Rankings

THE JUGGERNAUT
1. New England (1)

THE CONTENDERS
2. Green Bay (3)
3. New Orleans (2)
4. Philadelphia (5)
5. Pittsburgh (4)
6. San Diego (6)
7. Baltimore (9)

THE FAN FAVORITES
8. Detroit (13)

NOBODY IS PANICKING. NOBODY IS PANICKING!
9. Miami (8)
10. Atlanta (7)
11. Dallas (12)

THE PAPER TIGERS
12. Houston (11)
13. New York Jets (10)
14. Chicago (19)
15. Washington (20)

ACTUALLY PANICKING
16. Tampa Bay (16)
17. New York Giants (18)
18. St. Louis (14)
19. Cleveland (15)

THERE'S A PULSE
20. Buffalo (29)
21. Jacksonville (22)
22. Oakland (27)
23. Arizona (25)
24. San Francisco (24)
25. Carolina (23)
26. Cincinnati (31)

THE ANDREW LUCK TANKAPALOOZA
27. Denver (21)
28. Minnesota (26)
29. Kansas City (17)
30. Tennessee (28)
31. Seattle (30)
32. Indianapolis (32)

Week Two Picks

Really Like:

DOLPHINS +3 over Texans

Like:

BILLS -4 over Raiders
Bucs +2.5 over VIKINGS
Jaguars +9 over JETS
PANTHERS +10 over Packers
REDSKINS -3.5 over Cardinals

If forced to choose:

Cowboys -3 over NINERS
Seahawks +14 over STEELERS
Chiefs +7.5 over LIONS
PATRIOTS -7 over Chargers
SAINTS -6.5 over Bears
TITANS +6 over Ravens
Eagles -2.5 over FALCONS
BRONCOS -3.5 over Bengals
Rams +6 over GIANTS
COLTS +2.5 over Browns

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 0-0
Like season record: 3-3
If forced to choose season record: 3-7
All games season record: 6-10

The Kyle Orton Volleyball Theory

2011-09-15T09:26:00.000-06:00

Would you pick Kyle Orton to be on your volleyball team?

Comprehensive NFL Preview

2011-09-11T20:39:00.001-06:00

Some are looking for Lombardi; some are looking for a little Luck.

Week One Picks

2011-09-10T20:17:00.004-06:00

My comprehensive NFL preview has been completed and should be up on Football Nation sometime soon.

Like:

JAGUARS -1 over Titans
REDSKINS +2.5 over Giants
BRONCOS -3 over Raiders
Steelers +1.5 over RAVENS
Saints +4.5 over PACKERS (X)
Cowboys +6 over JETS

If forced to choose:

BROWNS -6.5 over Bengals
BUCS -1.5 over Lions
TEXANS -9 over Colts
Falcons -1.5 over BEARS
NINERS -5 over Seahawks
CHIEFS -5 over Bills
RAMS +3.5 over Eagles
DOLPHINS +6.5 over Patriots
Vikings +9 over CHARGERS
Panthers +6.5 over CARDINALS

Lock career record: 5-3 (62.5%)
Really like career record: 19-16-2 (54.3%)
Like career record: 121-105-4 (53.5%)
If forced to choose career record: 260-248-8 (51.2%)
All games career record: 405-372-14 (52.1%)

2011 NFL Futures

2011-09-10T20:08:00.002-06:00

Here are the over/under win totals I bet on going into this NFL season, in order of confidence:

Panthers over 4.5 wins (-115)
Dolphins over 7.5 wins (+120)
Steelers over 10.5 wins (-115)
Ravens under 10 wins (+105)
Ravens under 9.5 wins (+154)
Titans under 6.5 wins (+120)
Browns over 7 wins (-110)
New York Jets under 9.5 wins (+130)

An Opening Masterpiece

2011-09-09T09:42:00.003-06:00

Here is my third article on the 2011 season for Football Nation, a recap of last night's gorgeous opener between the Saints and Packers. This one is better than the first two, so check it out.

August Top 15

2011-09-06T10:05:00.003-06:00

15. Sublime - What I Got (Reprise)
14. Billy Squier - Lonely Is the Night
13. Red Hot Chili Peppers - The Adventures of Rain Dance Maggie
12. The Hollies - Long Cool Woman (In a Black Dress)
11. Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros - Om Nashi Me

10. Alanis Morissette - Hand In My Pocket
9. Dusty Springfield - So Much Love
8. Ray LaMontagne - For The Summer
7. Sublime - Caress Me Down
6. Foster the People - Pumped Up Kicks

5. Loudon Wainwright III - Daughter
4. Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros - Home
3. Adam Sandler - Real Love
2. Ryan Adams - Lucky Now

Song of the Month: Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros - 40 Day Dream

The Steel Pole Club

2011-09-01T10:50:00.001-06:00

Ten players I wouldn't touch with a nine-foot steel pole in fantasy this season

NFL 2011

2011-08-29T09:23:00.003-06:00

For the 2011 season my content will be published at Football Nation. My first article, which would be known on this blog as NFL Preview Part One: The Fantasy Value Theory, can be found here. There are incentives for article views and comments, so help me out if you like what you see.

Too Much

2011-08-23T00:09:00.003-06:00

A few weeks ago I was at a strip club as part of a friend's bachelor party. At some point I got bored and went to the bathroom to take a crap. I was thinking about how much time I've spent in strip clubs the last few years, even though I've never once wanted to go to a strip club. It got me thinking about all the things I've spent too much time doing in recent years. I jotted down as many things as I could while sitting in the stall. Here is that list, unedited:

Strip clubs
Stroking the one eyed monkey
S loop
Dominion.isotropic.org
Dr. Mario
DMV
Fishing
Thursday Night Football
China Men
Pursuing hot chicks
Chewing
Lat pulldown
Facebook
Waiting for encores
Resetting the wireless router
Looking for WSOP lodging
Putting the blankets on the couch
Questioning my social skills
Target fitting room
Words With Friends
School
Vomiting
Hearing "Don't Stop Believing"
Evaluating my looks
Poker
Short Cuts
Cleaning contact lens cases with q-tips
Chasing unattainable girls
The Colorado Buffaloes Men's Basketball Team
Black Hawk, CO
MTV
MTV2
Giving Dave Matthews second, third, & fourth chances
Snowboarding
Sleeping
Thinking about myself
Driving the I-15
Ex-girlfriends
Infomercials
Making lists
Driving up and down Lehigh St
Fantasizing
Second base
Tagging mp3s
Wearing old socks
Scraping snow off the windshield
Complaining
Waiting for the fly machine to open up at 24 hr fitness
Driving to 24 hr fitness

Throwing Up

2011-08-14T22:14:00.003-06:00

The period after the WSOP is always one of the worst times of the year, a listless, godforsaken chunk of time best traversed as quickly as possible. It's impossible not to feel hungover from the WSOP, impossible to reproduce the same drive, purpose, and enthusiasm for life without those million dollar carrots dangling in your peripherals. This year's late summer has been particularly difficult, thrust directly into the harsh reality of Life without any more illusions it might be avoided.

Though there have been some nice times, there have only been four things I have consistently enjoyed since the WSOP:

The smell of rain
Exercise
Funny People
This youtube clip

Just a few months ago I was cruising along in a fairly pleasant but unsustainable situation. I decided to cut my own arms off in hopes of climbing to a higher place, even knowing how miserable the gaping, bleeding holes from those cuts were going to be and how hard the climb was going to be without those arms. At some point I may have become addicted to putting myself into deep dark holes just to see if I could dig out of them. Digging out of the last one was so rewarding and exhilarating sometimes I wonder if I was secretly hoping to fall back in. Like Aron Ralston or Shaniac in November 2010, I know that I put myself in this position voluntarily, though perhaps not consciously.

Now I do everything I can to get out of the hole. I'm going nowhere fast but I try. Every morning I wake up early and get out of bed. Even if I want to sleep late, I can't past 9. I work hard during the days on my book and other vague ventures. I'm still not sure what I will do if I can't be a writer, but intriguing possibilities are emerging. I do something athletic every day. I think I am past my athletic peak. But my body looks better than ever. At night I find myself in random social experiences. I never say no. I have to learn to get better. Rarely are these experiences relaxing. But they're not supposed to be. Now is not the time for relaxation. Men, children, and animals seem to be slightly magnetized by my presence. Women seem to be slightly repulsed by it. I get to spend a few minutes with the best dog in the world before bed. I fall asleep right away.

This is the hardest part of my adult life, so far - but, so far, it has not been the worst. I have been experiencing consistent and unprecedented rejection in all aspects of life over the last month but have not seen much of a drop in my disposition or self-esteem. I have been trying so hard in so many different areas and just keep failing, but it hasn't made me want to stop trying. I feel like I am walking a tightrope above an abyss of depression but despite several shoves I haven't lost my footing. I really have no idea what is going on for me emotionally. Maybe I have dug out of so many holes digging out of this one is automatic. Maybe I finally realized how silly it was to feel sorry for myself. Maybe it's the Vitamin D.

Vomiting is the most abhorrent of bodily functions. Everyone is terrified of it. It's horribly unpleasant, disgusting, painful. But vomiting is actually a wonderful thing, one of the best things a human can do. Vomiting gets the poison out, resets the system. Sometimes vomiting is a necessary action for a healthy mind and body. I'm puking my guts out right now. It's not so bad.

WSOP Recap Part Two: Grades

2011-08-08T13:31:00.009-06:00

Bon Iver: B+

Bon Iver’s Bon Iver is a canoe ride / rocket ship of contradiction. Half of it is cutting-edge indie, half seems to have been unearthed from a time capsule from 1985. A sparse indie rock record populated with horns. Music for the dead of winter cut loose in the heat of the summer (which is why I am saving the new Fleet Foxes for November at the earliest). A deeply emotional and affecting album with incomprehensible lyrics, a timeless relic of unquestionable modernity.

Bridesmaids: D+

Sex and the City, the worst show in the history of television, began this inane crusade. Apparently treating men like shit is part of being a powerful woman. This is the opposite of feminism. How did this happen? How is it socially accepted? The perpetuation of protagonists like Kristen Wiig’s Annie - selfish, man-hating bitches who destroy men to inflate their flagging egos - is one of the most sickening developments in recent American pop-culture.

Cake: C

Showroom of Compassion, while still passable Vegas summertime music, is the weakest Cake effort in seventeen years.

Cosmopolitan: B+

The prototype for the future of the Vegas casino/hotel/resort/experience – classic and modern, voluminous yet sleek, contemporary but comprehensive.

Dallas Mavericks: A

Sometimes good does triumph over evil, sometimes years of pain and sacrifice do end in glory, sometimes teams do beat individuals, sometimes experience trumps talent, sometimes hard work does pay off, sometimes dreams really do come true.

Dr. Mario: B

It is amazing how much time and energy adult humans can spend repetitively pushing left, right, down, A, and B buttons, with nothing tangible or memorial to show for it.

ESPN WSOP Coverage: A

The live coverage of the WSOP Main Event on the ESPNs was the most entertaining and insightful poker programming ever made. The canvas was so broad, the analysis so sharp – this was the single most illuminating learning tool the game has ever seen. Olivier Busquet’s analysis was dumbfoundingly delicious, Antonio Esfandiari’s was nearly as sharp, and even Phil Hellmuth leant a cinematic air of excitement and immediacy to the broadcasts. It was such a pleasure to watch the final nine navigate their way to November, to see just how they were able to traverse that impossible voyage – and to see why and how the others fell by the wayside.

Game of Thrones: A-

There was genuine sadness at the conclusion of the compelling first season, facing ten months without George R.R. Martin’s mesmerizing Westeros, ten months without Starks, Lannisters, and Targaryens, ten months without Valyrian Steel or the Knight’s Watch. Only the most exceptional entertainment can create that sadness, that feeling like a small part of life is lost without it. As intricate and rewarding as the books are, A Song of Ice and Fire may have found its ceiling adapted into the most expensive television show ever made.

The Hangover Part II: C-

The punchless retread it was doomed to be from the start, lazy, languid, and uninspired. Special demerit for cutting corners on the Thai-American characters – the simple Asian bride, the overbearing Asian father, and the cello prodigy Asian kid brother, who somehow emerges from the night happy with the fact he just lost a finger and spent 24 hrs roasting in an elevator shaft.

Harrah’s, LLC: C

They seem to run this monstrosity more efficiently every year. The flaws are shrinking every year, the complaints becoming more and more peripheral. The Harrah’s version of the WSOP will always taste sterile, but it goes down the gullet without incident.

House of Tame: B

Three final tables, a bracelet, two Main Event cashes, three Dr. Mario tie-game photo finishes, a dozen morning house runs on the blacktop, thirty some odd bags of recycled containers, zero foreclosed houses, zero punches to the face. Overall, a successful sojourn for one of the longest-running groups in WSOP house-renting history.

Las Vegas: C+

A full letter grade docked here due to the omnipresent, maladroit, static road construction found all over the city. None of this construction ever seems to get done – the signs, the cones, the delays just seem to grow without anyone or anything ever actually appearing on site. It all climaxes in the I-15, AKA The Highway To Hell, a racing video game level rife with wrecks, maniacs, drunks, speeders, motorbikes, unpredictable and unmarked construction and treacherous exits built right through incoming merges.

Lotus of Siam: B+

Spoiled by one inexplicably arduous meal near the tail end of the WSOP. Still atop Moon’s Vegas Restaurant Power Rankings (especially with the saddening departure of Rosemary’s), but teetering.

MrBigQueso: A-

MrBigQueso AKA Jim Collopy did not have a strong WSOP, cashing just once. But his enormous, ever-present smile never left his face. Every time you see the kid, he’s laughing and giggling. MrBigQueso was a constant reminder of how we should all view the WSOP: the best summer camp ever, a seven-week haven amongst the only people in the world who won’t judge you for being yourself.

My Play: B+

Typically Moonish, with few big mistakes or outstanding moves.

Super 8: C

Having missed the first five minutes and looking to plug the plot gaps, post-viewing research of Super 8 discovered its lead actress, Elle Fanning, is thirteen years old. Thirteen. Amazingly, this was only the second-most shocking age revelation of the summer after learning that housemate Big Eric Schwartz was forty.

Words With Friends: C

“Bugs With Friends” might just be the most awful line of coding ever written, but the iPhone is the perfect vessel for Scrabble, much like HBO television is the perfect medium for A Song of Ice and Fire, 2011 was the right time for the Dallas Mavericks, and Vegas is the only locale for the World Series of Poker.

My Main Event - Day Four

2011-08-02T15:11:00.004-06:00

I had reached the fourth day of a poker tournament just twice before: In 2007 at the EPT in Baden, which was the most important and exciting day of my poker career, and two Februaries ago at the NAPT Venetian where we played down to the final table of eight. Both of those tournaments were deep into the money, whereas in this one, we hadn’t even reached it. 852 players remained with the $19k bubble bursting at 693. As nervous as I was the day before about busting and embarking on a dangerous trip up Mount Rainier, day four was even more nervewracking. After bubbling so many big events in 2010 that I considered naming my book “Life on the Bubble”, it felt like that’s exactly where I was headed once again. The grossest part of it was that I was in exactly the situation I didn’t want to be in heading into day four, beginning the day with an uncomfortable stack of 142k with the blinds at 2000-4000-500.

The second hand of the day I raised AQ under the gun to 9500 and was met by a 3-bet to 25kish from the 850k stack on the button. I had done a little research on this young player, Dan Retallick, who appeared to be an aggressive online player who probably wouldn’t be making any big folds. I ended up folding this hand reluctantly, knowing he could be making a play but not really expecting it two minutes into the day vs a UTG raise.

I have been carefully considering this hand since it went down. Shortly after it happened I was reading Retallick’s twitter and saw that he had nothing that hand, and I was upset at myself for folding. After his 3-bet there is

9 X 500 = 4500 (antes) +

2000 + 4000 = 6000 (blinds) +

9500 (my raise) +

25200 (his reraise) = 45,200 in the pot

If I fold I have 132k, 33 BB, which is fine, but if I shove and he folds I have 177k which sure makes a lot of difference at this point in the tournament. When you factor in his position, his age, his stack, and how often AQ does win against AK, KK, JJ, I convinced myself that folding this hand was a mistake and I should have just taken a risk and piled it.

But then I was reading his twitter a couple days later and realized I misread, that he actually had AK in that hand, and I went back to questioning the whole thing, and really I have no idea what I should have done, though I do think calling the raise is the worst play of the three.

A few hands after that everyone folded to a different kid with a big stack on the button who raised and was called by the older guy in the big blind, who had a ton of chips organized into stacks of ten.

The flop came 744r and the older guy led out. The kid quickly called. The turn was a jack and the older guy checked, then made a 3x raise when the kid bet. Again, he was quickly called. The river was a 9 and the older guy checked again. The kid made a small bet and then, to everyone’s shock, the older guy raised again! The kid quickly called with T4o while the older guy turned over A9o. What a wild hand to see early on Day Four of the Main Event! I think everyone at that moment wondered how in the world that guy had gotten to this point, with a handsome stack to boot.

A few hands later I raised KQo to 9k UTG. When it got to that older guy in late position, he said “raise” and put in 9k, likely never having seen me open the pot. The old guy was forced to make a min-raise to 14k and everyone folded back to me. With 115k in chips I considered shoving but figured he would call spitefully with a lot of weak hands and saw no reason to jeopardize the stack preflop, so I called. The flop came Q74 and I checked it over to the guy, who bet like 18k or something. I tried to look as weak as I could knowing top pair was going to be unfoldable to this guy and then called. The turn was a ten and I checked. The old guy quickly announced all-in, covering me. I called after about fifteen seconds and almost burst out laughing when he turned over the A5 of hearts. Though my tournament could be one card away from coming to a tragic ending, I really found it amusing that this guy had run such a ridiculous all-in bluff with the A5 of hearts on that board just moments after blowing a pile on another comical bluff. No ace on the river and I doubled up to 245k.

The table broke and I was sent to a new table which was filled with young dudes who looked like pros, though I only recognized Justin Zaki a few slots to my left. Most of the players had reship stacks while only Zaki, the young guy to my right, the older guy to his right, and one other Minnesotan across the table had “comfort” stacks as we approached the bubble.

I raised one hand with pocket fours and couldn’t call the BB’s shove.

I raised another hand with pocket sixes from MP and Zaki reraised on the button. Right away I knew three things:

His range was extremely wide
Four-betting was out of the question since it would be so easy for him to 5-bet shove his covering stack and I certainly wasn’t gonna be calling it off with a pair of sixes at this stage.
If I was to flop a set I thought I had a great shot at a double-up. I already had my line planned out: check-call, check-call, check-call. I felt like Zaki would likely keep firing with nothing or a hand he thought was best because of the bubble.

So I called. The flop came A54 and he checked it back, which meant he had something. This hand only would have been interesting if he bet the flop, which would have been more likely to be a bluff.

The turn was a 2 and again it went check-check. I checked the X river to him and he made a bet, which instantly sent my cards into the muck.

The last hand of the level, I raised AK under the gun. Everyone folded to the big stacked young guy in the BB, who called. The flop was 973 and he checked. I made a bet, he raised, and I folded. Since everyone had left the table, he decided to show me he’d flopped a set of sevens.

If I ever had a hand like an overpair in that spot, I would always check back the flop - to avoid busting on the bubble if he did outflop me, and to let him bluff off some chips thinking I had overs.

The bubble was not a pleasant experience. My stack was such that folding every hand would ensure a spot in the money, but also a pretty short stack once there. There wasn’t a whole lot to be done other than sitting back and waiting for it to be over. I did manage to steal one pot raising the 54s in early position but also lost an open on the literal bubble with a random ace when Zaki reraised me. This was basically a pure bubble hand where (once the guy to my right folded UTG) I knew that no one would mess with me EXCEPT for Zaki, who would be smart to reraise me with ATC, so the question was, would he? I thought that he might fold rags so I gave it a shot, and he did show an ace after I showed an ace and folded. That hand inspired some discussion about what hands I should be shoving with after that raise, and what hands he should be calling with – I eventually decided I should be shoving only pocket aces, which means he should only be calling the shove with aces – though you couldn’t fault him for calling with kings.

Right on the bubble the short-stacked but active guy to my left raised UTG and then to everyone’s shock the young and even shorter-stacked player to his left went all-in and then even more shockingly the first guy quickly called. They both turned over pocket kings, then had to wait two minutes for the cameras to come over. Sure enough, the covering stack flopped a backdoor flush draw, but the turn ended the suspense. Personally I thought the first guy should have folded pocket kings since I didn’t see the other guy shoving with worse than kings.

When the bubble finally ended I was down to 112k. Arrangements had been made for shots for the table, which everyone gratefully took once we hit the cash. In the maelstrom that followed, I folded most hands but picked up pocket kings in back to back hands: shoving the first over Zaki’s EP open from the SB (folds), and shoving the second over Zaki’s UTG raise and a call from an older guy in LP. This time the older guy (who had been very active) considered for a minute before laying down.

Shortly after dinner Zaki raised early to something like 14k and the same older guy called. Déjà vu struck as I found pocket kings once again in the small blind and shoved in for 100k more. Zaki folded but the older guy muttered that he was “so tired of it” and called with queen-ten suited! Nothing scary hit the board and I doubled back to 240k.

Less than an orbit later I raised ATs to 14k in early position. The vampiric Max Heinzelmann, who had recently shown up with over a million chips, called from late position. The older guy who had just doubled me up with the QTs called from the BB, but not before some hesitation which hinted that he didn’t have much. The flop came ten-high with two babies and the older guy led for something like 16k. I made it 45k pretty sure I was calling a shove, Heinzelmann folded, and the older guy called. The turn was a 9 and we both checked. The river card was something low and the older guy checked. I fired something like 78k and got looked up by “a worse kicker.” I felt like the really close decision on this hand was whether or not to bet the turn to set up an all-in river bet. There is some chance the ace-ten is no good (especially with the 9 coming on the turn). Checking the turn back ensures I won’t go broke on the hand and also increases the chances I get one more good street of value in. But I really didn’t think I was beat because of the preflop tell, and also thought this guy was tilting and might feel like doubling me up again. All things considered I think I should have bet like 64k on the turn and shoved the river if called again.

The very next hand I raised AK UTG with the guy to my left along with Heinzelmann calling. The kid on the button decided this was a good squeeze spot for some strange reason and did so, but small. I made sure the kid didn’t have me covered and then jammed, and everyone quickly folded. God that is so annoying when you flat a raise with something speculative and then some dumbass behind you ruins the party with an idiotic squeeze that obviously gets shoved on.

Just like that I was up to 430k and the Oasis song “Lyla” which I’ve been listening to at the WSOP since 2005 was going off in my head – “I waited for a thousand years for you to come and blow me out my mind…” My hands were shaking as I stacked the chips.

The old guy who had been my lifeline tilted off the rest of his stack and was replaced by another older guy named Thomas Grey who looked pretty straightforward. He raised a hand from early position and I called a couple behind him with AK. I think Heinzelmann or someone may have called as well. The flop came AK9 rainbow. For the second time and the first since day one I had flopped more than one pair. Grey led out for 20k and I felt like he had a piece. I raised it up to 52k which prompted a fold from the third party and a quick call from Grey. I felt like he probably had AQ or AJ and was looking forward to adding another wing to my growing castle of chips. The turn came a six and I bet 68k after Grey checked. He then raised to 200k and I threw up in my mouth. Suddenly it didn’t feel as much like AQ or AJ. He had another 100k behind which I moved in after a short tank and he called with a matching AK.

Another hand involving Grey came with Andrew Brokos raising early and Grey calling in late position, then calling down three big barrels on a Q55xx board and showing AQ after Brokos collected the pot with KK.

Grey busted my friend Joe calling a raise with Q6o big blind vs small, calling a bet on an 854 flop, then raising the 7 turn and getting it in vs Joe’s J4. I tell that story not to embarrass Joe, a skilled and manipulative player, but to provide context for the hand that ends this long story.

Incredibly my friend Chris Moore was moved in to the seat Joe vacated. Chris (Toph) and I were texting back and forth about the players when it occurred to me that Toph had about the same stack and we could swap some action. Although I generally try to swap a lot of action in the WSOP, I hadn’t asked Toph to swap before the tournament because he is such an incredible player that I believe asking him to swap is simply unfair, especially since he’s such a nice guy he might say yes. But at this point it seemed reasonable, so I asked him how many chips he had and he quickly proposed a 2% swap with more possibly at the end of the day.

I had folded about an hour’s worth of garbage and anted down to 360k when Heinzelmann raised a pot to 18k with Grey calling from the cutoff. I called with 22 from the SB and the BB folded. The door card was a deuce with offsuit 6 and 3 coming behind it. I checked, Heinzelmann checked, and Grey snap-checked. The turn was a ten, a second diamond. Again I checked, Heinzelmann now bet 35k, and Grey immediately slid in a twenty-stack of orange 5k chips making it 100k. I winced and stared at Grey (who had never given off anything physically perceptible), which is something I sometimes do when I have a strong hand but am genuinely concerned. I thought for a while and then shoved about 340k, Heinzelmann quickly folded, Grey called with a set of sixes, and I busted in 408^th place for $30,974.

When you bust the Main Event putting the money in behind, inevitably you are going to torment yourself over the fatal hand, wondering if it could have been played any better. I’ve agonized over this one and concluded that my best play on the turn, once I checked it and Grey raised Heinzelmann’s bet, was to fold the hand. My second best option was to call the 100k and see what happened on the river. It was certainly a cooler hand and I would never have been able to get away from it had someone bet the flop, but as played, it was foldable.

Grey is not going to show up with an overpair or two pair in that situation. There are two hands that I wonder about: a flush draw (possibly with a gutshot, possibly with two overs), and a ten. I do not know for certain how he would play a strong flush draw, but my guess is that he would have called. It should also be noted that he instantly raised the bet.

To this day I wonder how he would have played a ten. I truly do not know, but I think there’s around 65% chance he would have just called (the AQ hand vs Brokos suggests this as well) with most tens and maybe even ace-ten. Having done this autopsy, I think a fold was certainly in order. The hands Grey is most likely to have will always call the shove and have me drawing to one out with one to come.

That hand obviously wasn’t the way I wanted my career as a professional poker player to end, but it was a wonderful and thrilling experience to finally make a run in the Main Event – and I will be back to play it again, hopefully every year for the rest of my life.

July Top 15

2011-08-01T14:22:00.004-06:00

15. Bon Iver - Minnesota, WI
14. Pink Floyd - Welcome to the Machine
13. Bon Iver - Perth
12. The Naked and Famous - Young Blood
11. Cake - End of the Movie

10. Red Hot Chili Peppers - Under the Bridge
9. Bon Iver - Holocene
8. Loreena McKennitt - The Mummer's Dance
7. Loreena McKennitt - Skellig
6. Wilco - You Never Know

5. Griffin House - Lonely One
4. Green Day - J.A.R.
3. Red Hot Chili Peppers - The Adventures of Rain Dance Maggie
2. Metallica - The Unforgiven III

Song of the Month: Mark Knopfler - Border Reiver

My Main Event - Day Three

2011-07-29T15:09:00.007-06:00

Badih Bounahra, who would go on to the final table, was seated on my direct left for the duration of the day. You couldn’t ask for better. Bounahra played very few hands and, from what I could tell, never made any moves. He was a stone cold rock. Of all the players I played with during this tournament, there were at least thirty I would have deemed more likely to reach the final table. I kept reading about his double-ups on pokernews, which typically came about with players misjusdging his range and going with hands they should against random pros on the internet. If the guy folds three straight buttons, he’s probably not raising garbage on the fourth. Give him credit and fold your king-nine offsuit. I was absolutely stunned by the call which essentially set the final table, with shortish stack John Hewitt raising early and then calling Bounahra’s sizable reship with KQo. After playing a day with Bounahra, I can tell you the calling range in this scenario was pocket queens, kings, and aces. Ace-queen suited was an easy fold, with ace-king and pocket jacks right on the fence. It just goes to show you that talented players inevitably crack up during the course of the two-week journey that is the Main Event. Simply keeping your head on straight provides a substantial advantage.

I was nervous going into day three. It was the first time I’d made the third day of the Main. My table draw didn’t appear particularly favorable, with several solid but non-famous pros seated there – the type of table I have been known to underestimate in the past. And if I busted day three, I was to catch a flight the next day to Seattle to climb Mount Rainier, with serious doubts about whether I was physically, mentally, or emotionally prepared to do so.

I just wasn’t catching many playable cards the third day, just as I hadn’t throughout the first two. This kept my nose clean, gave me a lot of respect when I did enter a pot, and kept the variance low. In the first level, I busted a short stack calling his shove with pocket kings and holding against fours. That was the only hand of significance I played the first five and a half hours of the day.

The most interesting thing that was going on during the afternoon session was Andrew Rosskamm throwing out prop bets. He created a couple lines, saying he’d take either side of the action for up to $1,000. The first was the number of players left at the end of the day, and he set a line so judicious no one at the table wanted a piece. But his second line was outrageous, setting the over/under for the largest end-of-day stack at 2.7 million. I had discussed this figure previously with some friends, and we had it around 1.4 million. Bounahra beat me into the pot and I quickly followed suit for $500 apiece.

I bled down to near 100k but was able to pick off another short stack with QQ against his ATs. Not too long after that a young guy who had been moved to my right raised from the cutoff and I called with QJo on the button. It turned out this was Luke “bdbeatslayer” Vrabel. He c-bet a KTx flop, which I called. The turn paired the king and he slowly check-folded to my bet.

Not too much later I found my favorite hand, KTs, and raised from middle position. Rosskamm called from the big blind. He checked the Q75 flop so fast I felt like he hit it, and I resigned myself to a thousandth straight missed flop and small pot lost. The turn came a 9 giving me a gutty to the nutty and he fired out a medium-sized bet. I now decided he would bet any hand here and wasn’t ready to give up the pot that easily, so I called. The river was an 8. Rosskamm, who normally acted very quickly, hesitated a beat upon the river card before throwing out a bet of slightly less than half the pot. I paused just a moment confirming I could represent a six, then made a 3x raise. Rosskamm disgustedly folded a queen face up, so I showed my hand too.

Shortly after Rosskamm went ahead and paid Bounahra and I the $500, which was a classy move with half an hour left in the day. The chipleader would finish around 1.2m.

After that bluff and a successful three-bet of Vrabel I was up to 200k and felt like I had finally taken control of the table. Unfortunately after that I lost a slew of pots including

Getting squeezed out of a hand preflop by Bounahra
Twice getting three-bet by players I deduced were unlikely to be making moves
Raising QTs and failing with a c-bet on a 975 flop
Flatting Vrabel’s EP raise with AK and folding on a J87ish flop
Doubling up a short stack with eights against nines the final hand of the night

I finished with 142k, happy with my effort but unhappy to have less chips than I began the day with.

Wise Words From The Red Hot Chili Peppers

2011-07-27T23:54:00.002-06:00

Hey now
We've got to make it rain somehow

My Main Event - Day Two

2011-07-25T11:45:00.006-06:00

The second hand of the day, a big stack named Jeff Becker who would ultimately finish 134^th, raised from the cutoff and I called from the big blind with 65 of diamonds. The flop came Jd9d4 and I elected to check-call. The turn was a 4d and now I bet out; Becker called. The river wasn’t really what I wanted to see, a nine, but I decided betting was better than checking and fired out what I thought to be a bet of uninterpretable size, 6350 into a pot of about 11,000. To my disgust Becker raised to 15k and though he looked like a player capable of bluffing in this spot I ultimately decided to fold. His bet size didn’t appear bluffy. I didn’t think he would launch a bluff like this against an unknown the second hand of the day, and on the turn I thought he had either a nine or a jack, the latter which probably would call my river bet or fold to it. After the table broke Becker told me had a nine with a diamond, though you never know for sure.

The new table was not what I was hoping for. Right away it was pretty clear there weren’t any real weak players, and most were obvious pros. David Fox (four to my right), Valdemar Kwaysser (two to my right) and Frank Rusnak (on my right) were the ones I recognized. It seemed like everyone at the table was riding a short to medium stack, so it looked to be a total grindfest.

And that’s exactly what it was. I bided my time, keeping things close to the vest. I watched a wild hand go down where Fox raised, Kwaysser reraised, Fox called, Fox check-called the Th7d3h flop, then check-shoved the Ad turn. I was about 75% that Kwaysser was bluffing, and 70% that Fox had a big draw based on the speed of his turn check-shove which appeared to me that he was feigning confidence looking for a fold. Kwaysser ended up calling with 86hh while Fox turned over 98dd.

I got involved on the button with the 74 of clubs, calling Kwaysser’s hijack raise after Rusnak had done likewise. The blinds folded and the three of us took a J22 rainbow flop. Kwaysser threw out a bet that looked weak to me, and Rusnak called. I wasn’t convinced Rusnak had much either, probably a pair of sevens or something. The problem was that I couldn’t represent anything. Finally I decided to call, thinking they would put me on a jack or better and check-fold the turn. The plan seemed to be working perfectly when we saw a 9 on the turn and they checked it to me, but to my surprise, Rusnak called my bet. The river was a six and I thought I was gonna shut it down, but I knew Rusnak to be a somewhat cautious (for a younger guy), thinking player. He cannot put me on a hand worse than ace-jack if I am still value betting. Though there are very few hands he can put me on worthy of a value bet, there are no hands he can put me on that would call a flop bet and continue to bet later in the hand – except for those unlikely powerhouses. I threw out a bet of 10k into roughly 14k, and Rusnak folded after a minute in the tank. I later saw something about a “big laydown” in his twitter feed.

A while later I raised with 65s in middle position and the English player two to my left called. The flop came something paired like 7-7-2 and I made a small continuation bet which was quickly called. The turn was an ace. Continuing to bet here is a common bluff, and I knew my opponent knew that. At the same time, I felt this player would credit me with a highish pair or even the ace itself if I checked, so I did so. He quickly checked behind. The river was a blank and I threw out a bet of 40% pot, which he folded to after thirty seconds. Later he announced that he held pocket nines and should have reraised me preflop.

After Kwaysser was eliminated, a loose Latin-American player filled his seat. The first time I played a pot with this fellow came when he raised in mid position and I called from the cutoff with ace-jack offsuit. The flop came KQx rainbow and he continuation-bet. This player had c-bet every time after raising and appeared relatively straightforward postflop (though I couldn’t see him making many big laydowns), so I quickly called. Stunningly the next card off was a ten, turning me the not straight for the second time in the tournament. To my delight, my opponent continued betting, 4300. I raised to 10,200 leaving myself with 21k behind. To my surprise, my opponent just called the bet without eyeing my stack. I figured he had to have a nice hand to keep betting on that turn card, and could never put me on a straight. I thought the money was going in right there, but I had left myself with a nice bet-size to shove the blank on the river with after he checked. I forced myself to count down from 100 to 0 before moving in, having decided that would look weaker than an immediate shove. My opponent thought for just a moment, and folded.

Shortly after dinner the table broke and packed up for the Amazon Room. Though I recognized two solid pros, Frank Sinopoli and Kristy Gazes, at my new table, I was pretty happy with the rest of what I saw at first glance. Right away it felt softer. The biggest stack was an older man across the table who appeared a bit fishy at first glance, as did the gentleman to my left, an older foreigner of about 50 years. Just as I walked up he was locked in a pot with Sinopoli, the former having called a raise out of the big blind. The flop was A94 with two diamonds, and he check-called Sinopoli’s bet. The turn was the Qd, and the big blind checked again. Sinopoli now turned up the heat with a substantial turn bet. The older fellow appeared uncomfortable with the bet, and was thinking about what to do for quite a while. As we waited, I stood up to fit my hoodie onto my seat. As I was doing so, the big blind rechecked his cards, and I caught sight of the ace of clubs in his hand. To my surprise, the older fellow then tossed in a raise. Sinopoli immediately started chuckling, disgusted with the “Hollywood” the older fellow had just put on. Sinopoli folded snappily, stating it was obvious the big blind had a monster and he did not appreciate the Hollywood the whole table had waited through before his raise on the turn. The BB then showed the six of diamonds, which was a pointless show for the rest of the table but one of great significance for me.

That show only reaffirmed Sinopoli’s insistences that the guy had the nuts, and he continued to reference the hand for the next several minutes. It was a hilarious dynamic – the big blind must have been cracking up inside knowing how he had duped Sinopoli. And it was even funnier for me, knowing the old man was laughing inside, laughing inside myself at the situation, all the while unable to tell anyone I was in on the joke.

My first big blind at this new table saw the old guy with the big stack open 2.4x in early position with Sinopoli calling. I looked down at the 32 of diamonds. I was tempted to jump right in with this marginal holding, but couldn’t quite justify a call with my 55 BB stack. The flop came 4s3sh2h. I would have certainly just check-shoved the pile here if I had called to see the flop. The older guy bet hard and was called by Sinopoli. On the Js turn, the older guy check-called Sinopoli’s bet. On the river, a second four, the older fellow again check-called, only to be shown A4 of clubs and mucking KsKd in disgust. There is little question I would have gone broke in this hand if I had tossed in the chips with the 3-2 before the flop.

From late position I raised KJhh and the older gentleman, the fellow who had falsely Hollywooded Sinopoli, called. The flop came 886 with two hearts and I bet 3000. The older guy made it 7500. With 40k in my stack it seemed a little overaggressive to just put the money in here so I just called. I led 12k on the 5h turn and was called, then another 22k after an offsuit trey hit the river. I had just 15k behind. The old guy appeared at times as if he was going to put me in, which made me sick to my stomach, but he eventually announced call and my hand was good.

I had just finished stacking the chips when Sinopoli raised 3x in midearly position. I wasn’t sure what to make of it but wasn’t folding KQ from the hijack. The flop came QT8 with two diamonds and a club and Sinopoli quickly checked. I checked behind but I think betting here is preferable. The turn was a ten bringing a second flush draw and he now made a fairly large bet which I called. He fired another pretty decent bet when the river bricked completely. I almost folded right away, just feeling like I was beat, but eventually convinced myself to call based on the way the hand had played out. He turned over pocket kings, and would go on to finish in 38^th place for $196k, the biggest score in a lengthy live tournament career.

The next major confrontation came when I raised 97hh from the cutoff with both blinds calling. The flop came Ah4s3h and the small blind led out for 5100 with the BB quickly folding. My normal line is to call here as the donk-bettor has a very strong hand or a very weak hand more than a medium strength hand like an ace and you can pick up the pot on the turn with minimal risk if he has the weak one, or hit the flush and win plenty off the strong one. But here I raised to 13.2k having sensed a little weakness in his bet. I also doubted if I could take him off an ace if I just called here, though a turn raise would have looked stronger (but been more committing) should he lead again.

When he raised me back another 17k I felt sick to my stomach. I was now pretty sure he had “the strong hand”, most likely a set though two pair was possible. A higher flush draw wasn’t out of the question though I figured he would have raised harder, and neither was a stone bluff though that was pretty farfetched. I had 49k left in my stack at that moment, facing the 17k bet. There was 200 x 9 = 1800 in antes in the pot + 3 x 3100 = 9300 (my preflop raise and two calls) + 13,200 x = 26,400 (my raise and his match) + 17,100 (his raise) in the pot.

1800 +

9300 +

26,400 +

17,100

= 54,600

I did the math rather hastily at the table, seeing that I was getting better than 3:1 on a call knowing he was shoving my last 32,000 on the turn regardless of the card. It would cost 17k to win the 54k in the pot, but then I would win another 32k if I hit, so roughly I’d be spending 17k to win 86k.

17,100 / 86,600 = .197 = odds I need to profitably call the bet assuming he has set and he shoves the turn regardless of what comes

Using an estimation of 8.3 outs (sometimes he will have two pair, sometimes 44 with a heart) and 45.6 cards left in the deck (we can account for the board cards, my cards, and sort of his cards)

8.3 / 45.6 = .182 = rough odds I have of hitting a heart on the turn

As you can see, I wasn’t getting the right odds to call this bet…and that’s not even including the fact (again, if he has the expected set) he has a ten out redraw to win the pot if I turn the flush.

~ 37 / 44 = .84 = odds my turned flush holds

.84 X .182 = odds I turn a flush and it holds = .153

1 / .153 = odds I need to call the bet = 6.54 to 1

86.6 / 17.1 = implied odds I’m getting = 5.06 to 1

So, assuming I calculated all this correctly (which, I must admit, I am not certain of), I wasn’t getting the odds I needed to be getting, and, if I was indeed confident he had a set, I should have folded – without even considering the extra value of tournament life, or how important the 17k would be to my stack at the time, or, on the other side of things, how useful the added chips would be. There is no exact math in these sort of situations as my opponent might have nothing and check-fold the turn, making my call far more profitable, or he might have ace-king and I might turn a pair or gutshot, etc. But this estimation makes it pretty obvious calling 17k more on the flop really just to see one more card wasn’t a wise decision.

It sure felt like a wise decision when a heart hit the turn, he shoved with 33, the river didn’t pair the board, and I doubled up to 134k.

I immediately kicked it up, getting involved in four out of the next five pots. On the fifth, I raised ace-jack from 3^rd position to 3k with the older fellow on my left calling. The big blind, who had lost a couple large pots recently, shoved all-in for 20k. The big blind was not a reckless player, but I still quickly called. The other guy got out of the way, the BB flipped over KQ, and the board came five low cards. A few people at the table expressed surprise at the call with AJ asking how I could call, but I felt it was standard.

At some point I raised 65dd under the gun with a young player calling in middle position. The flop came AKQ with two diamonds and I check-called a bet. Most players are c-betting with their flush draw here but I like check-calling as it allows him to take a bluff at it which he will surely give up on the turn if called. At the same time, he will never see the flush coming if does have a hand. The turn was a queen and we both checked; the river was a blank and he was happy to call my third-pot bet with AK.

I lost a few more small pots and ended the day with 145k.

WSOP Recap Part One: My Main Event - Day One

2011-07-21T15:21:00.008-06:00

I’ve always felt like the Main Event was the perfect tournament for me, with its long levels, deep stacks, and fishy field. Exploiting weak players playing deepstacked poker has been the thing I’ve been best at ever since my early cash days on Party Poker in 2004. Yet the first six times I played the Main, I never came close to cashing. There has been a ton of bad luck, more so in terms of missing flops than anything else. Lifetime I estimated my setflopping percentage around 5% in the Main coming into this year, and that percentage actually decreased after going something like 1 for 25 with pocket pairs this year.

But I also think I was generally playing way too many hands in the early levels – particularly from early position – and playing them too passively. While I usually found myself at tables full of weak players, I think I went overboard with some of the preflop calls in the past in such a desperation to hit a hand and stack a fish. I probably underestimated the play of my unknown opponents and overestimated the action I would get when I finally did hit a hand.

I came in this year with resolve to tighten it up a bit (especially in early position), give some more respect to my opponents unless I had strong reason not to, and to stay patient remembering that two thirds of a starting stack at the end of day one would still be 40 BB entering day two.

The overwhelming weakness in my game is preflop. Strangely I feel pretty confident in my preflop reads in just about every pot except the ones I get involved in myself. It really has gotten pretty laughable the last few years. Seemingly every time I launch a 3-bet it gets 4-bet right back in my face. I have basically been giving away chips for the last few years on light 3-bets, and would have fared better over that time without ever having made one weak 3-bet. A little over two years ago I light 3-bet the preflop master Adam Geyer three times in half an hour in an FTOPS tournament, and he 4-bet me all three times forcing folds. After that I decided to just flat out stop reraising hands preflop, and went on to finish fourth in that tournament. Slowly I got back to reraising some hands preflop, with horrific results. So I 3-bet just four hands (not including three reshoves on day four) in four days at the WSOP Main Event:

65o a few hours into day one after two guys limped and the older fellow to my right raised 3x which didn’t seem like the size he would make it with a big pair (everyone folded)
A7s in position on day two against a foreign player who was fairly short-stacked and would have to commit his stack (everyone folded)
AJo from the button to Kristy Gazes’ cutoff raise late on the second night (everyone folded)
A9o in middle position to Luke Vrabel’s EP raise on night three (everyone folded)

I uninvest 4-bet one hand: QQ when a fishy player raised early and Kirbynator 3-bet right behind him (everyone folded). The uninvest 4-bet bluff is a play I am actually lot more comfortable making than the 3-bet bluff (like I said, I’m pretty astute at deciphering when someone else is doing it light), but never really had a spot where I wanted to do it in this tournament. I also 4-bet zero hands after someone 3-bet me.

The strongest part of my game is knowing when to call, raise, and fold in marginal postflop situations in heads-up hands. I’ve always been a strong heads-up player, probably because it is impossible for your opponents to 3-bet you in position. I generally defend my BB much lighter than is “correct” because of playing those situations so many times heads up. So generally I try to get involved with a lot of KQo, Q9s, 97s, 44 type hands in single-raised pots in and out of position and proceed from there.

But throughout this tournament I wasn’t catching those sort of hands. I folded junk for prolonged periods of time at several different junctures in the Main Event, playing just two to four hands in a level a few different times. This gave me a lot more respect than I generally receive when I would open-raise a hand, so I wasn’t 3-bet nearly as much as I’ve become accustomed to. Throughout the tournament I would usually see a bunch of quick folds when I did raise a hand, often after I had folded 15-20 hands in a row preceding that raise.

So my general image was a tight one, though that wasn’t the case at my first table. I tried to remember every significant or notable hand I was involved with and compiled them all here on the blog like I used to back when I was a serious professional poker player. There were a ton of small hands where I called a raise with a pocket pair or suited connector en route to a multi-way pot where I had an obvious postflop fold. Those hands constantly ate away at my stack, but this year I think I was almost always right to speculate in the situations I did choose to call a raise without a strong preflop hand. At the same time I picked up the blinds uncontested on a higher percentage of my raises than I’m used to, which helped keep my stack steady when I was losing other pots.

For four days I waited to flat a raise with a big pair in hopes that someone might squeeze behind, and in four days I never had that opportunity.

Though poker stopped being my profession the moment I was knocked out of the Main Event, I have found myself with renewed interest in the game after playing the tournament for four days then watching it four more on ESPN2 and ESPN3. Any analysis or criticism is welcome.

The very first hand a 30ish guy who a week later I learned was Nate Silver opened in early position and I looked down at ace-king a couple slots behind him. I just called, just called a biggish bet on a KQx flop with a flush draw, then called another biggish bet again on a blank turn conceding that I might lose 20% of my stack on the very first hand. But he checked a blank river, I threw out a medium bet, and he folded.

A few minutes later I raised T7s in latish position and checked down the entire board when it came with a seven and (eventually) three overcards to beat the small blind’s ace-king. The small blind was a young Asian player who looked like Napoleon Ta, so it was a little surprising he had just called with AK preflop. With my T7 being shown down after his AK, I thought there was a good chance this kid would be reraising me in the future with some garbage hands knowing I was opening light while expecting me to give him credit for a hand since he didn’t reraise the AK. Sure enough, the next time I raised in late position (with 43s) and the button called the kid came over the top in the big blind. Despite the fact that I was expecting him to do this with almost anything I ended up just calling the reraise in position, instead of four-betting, showing the three of clubs after his fold, and asserting control of the table. Despite the lack of confidence I have in my preflop game this was pretty much a mandatory four-bet spot with my hand and the confident read I had that this kid would be 3-betting with anything, and I’m still disappointed I didn’t pull the trigger on that one. The flop came KT7 and I slowly folded to the kid’s c-bet when again, I should have raised his ass.

The very next hand I raised with AQss and the kid three bet out of the small blind. This time I thought he was strong, but was still happy to call a three-bet in position with my hand. The flop came 552 with two spades. I called his bet, checked the turn back when he checked, and folded to his river bet when two other low cards hit the board.

Sometime not too much later I had either opened or called a raise with 76s and the kid squeezed again from the blinds, and again I had called his reraise in position. The kid tried to get fancy on a KTx9J board with his K9s checking it the whole way but I never took the bait and he was forced to turn over the hand which he won nothing with postflop. I was hopeful turning that hand over would slow down his squeezing and 3-bets and surprisingly (along with losing a large pot) he did slow down.

I limped tens under the gun for 100 and the button who was obviously an amateur made it 200. I couldn’t tell if he knew I limped (which happens a ton when I limp UTG). One of the blinds called as did I. The flop was 987 and we checked to the button who bet 500. The blind folded and I called. The turn was an 8, I checked, and the button now bet 1000. I called again. The river was a 9, I checked, and the button now bet 3000. I didn’t think this guy would launch a triple-barrel bluff but on the other hand it didn’t make sense for him to have many hands so I eventually called and was good against his 63s.

That same guy played a headscratching hand a bit later where he called an EP raise, checked an 864 flop over to the button (Silver), called Silver’s bet after the preflop raiser folded, check-called another bet on a 7 turn, and, incredibly, was unable to beat Silver’s A4 after the board paired and the river was checked down. So when he raised in early position I knew I would be calling with anything remotely playable, did so with 64o, and was happy to take the flop heads up. I raised his c-bet on the A53 flop hoping to win the hand right there, buy myself a river card, and build a bigger pot to bet into when I hit my straight. He quickly called the raise basically letting me know he had an ace, and I shut it down after the turn and river whiffed and he checked to me. He won with A7s.

The hand that got me going came when I raised KQ to 525 with the young Asian calling from the SB and an older fishier player calling from the big. The flop came T98 and I thanked them for the free card and checked behind when checked to. The turn was an orgasmic jack. The small blind checked and the older guy bet 1000. I didn’t see this guy laying a queen so I went for the jugular and raised it to 4500. He called after a short think. I overbet the river for 12k and got looked up by QJ, the flopped nuts.

PiMaster was watching the hand with his sister from the rail and was able to explain to her exactly what was going on the entire time. It was a pretty cool low-level tutorial poker hand which clearly juxtaposed the hand-reading ability of the pro compared to the fish. I’m sure seven of the ten players at the table knew precisely what I had but it didn’t matter because one of the ones who didn’t know for sure was the one I was playing against.

I was so happy and excited after this hand. For six years I have seen these transparent hands play out in the Main Event without ever being the beneficiary of one. Finally it happened for me and now I had the stack to splash around at this weak table for the rest of the day.

Not too long after that the weak player limped for 300 along with Silver and I made it 1400 with AQcc with only Silver calling. The flop came AsJs8c and I checked it back. The turn was a four and he fired 2300. I called. The river was a blank, he fired 5200, and I called and lost to his set of fours. I had to compose myself after this hand, telling myself that I played it the way I did for a reason (Silver was blufftastic) and that it had simply been unlucky and that folding the river would have been silly in that situation.

Silver, who was probably the most active player at the table, raised a hand under the gun and I called with AK again. The flop was Axx and he bet. I felt like this was a really close spot between calling and letting him bluff off some more (I had shown I would call A high flops in these spots with hands like 99 earlier) or raise (I had raised the fish in this exact same situation with unshown cards in the 64o hand). With that hand fresh in people’s memory I decided to raise here and Silver folded.

Not too long after that the exact same situation came up with the weak player and Silver limping and me raising to 1400 with K8ss. This time a woman I had played with for an afternoon at the Venetian called behind me and then both limpers called. The flop came 874 and I checked to keep things under control and make it appear as if I had nothing when the limpers checked to me. The woman checked behind. The turn was a 3 bringing a flush draw. When Silver bet I rechecked my whole cards feigning two overs with a flush draw then called. The others got out of the way. The river was an offsuit king and I had an easy value bet when he checked, and got paid off almost immediately. 47k. The real question in this hand was whether I was value-betting on the end, and I probably would if he checked to me on a 2, 3, 4, queen, and possibly jack.

To my disgust I got moved from this table two minutes before the dinner break. I felt like I was about ready to go on a rampage here with a lot of three-betting the weaker, looser players on my right even though that’s not my game. With the antes coming in, the way they were playing, and my image, I was excited to really start playing some poker but instead I was moved to a much tougher table with several younger pros including my close friend Paul Wasicka, Canadian pro InescapableD, and Kirbynator. Paul didn’t have a big stack but those other two did and were playing quite well to boot. With four hours left in the day I basically decided to play pretty tight and hope for a better table draw on day two.

That was exactly what happened. I raised KJo in middle position after folding about thirty hands in a row. The big blind defended. I had said in my twitter that I never flopped better than one pair until the fourth day of the tournament but forgot this one came KQJ all diamonds. The BB led out which felt like some sort of real hand from that player so I elected to just call. I really didn’t know where I was at and folding even crossed my mind cause I picked up a tell of strength when the flop hit. At the same time I thought he would check a flopped flush to me so I was thinking straight, two pair, or Adx. The turn was a low diamond and he checked. I checked it back but I think the better play would have been to bet with the intention to put him in on the river regardless of what came. His stack size combined with my read made this a little better I think, though this player did seem like he might be ready to call off his stack light after steadily siphoning off his chips over the last hour. The river was another diamond, he checked again, I checked, and he won with 64dd flopped flush.

The next notable hand came when Inescapable raised UTG and I flatted with AK in late position. We took a flop of KQ9 with a flush draw heads up and he bet 1300. I made it 3200 as an info/value raise and he called. I didn’t want to be put in a calldown guessing game by this tough player so decided to raise the flop knowing he really couldn’t raise me back with anything but the nuts. The turn was a blank and I checked after he did. The river was another blank and he thought about betting, but then checked. I thought I was good so pretended to have missed a flush draw (which is the only hand that really makes any sense for me to have) and bet 7050. He quickly called with a set of queens, which was a shockingly strong hand for him to have considering the action. He actually got max value on this hand because of what I had, but I think a river checkraise was in order as me having a jack-ten is extremely unlikely having checked back the turn. In retrospect I’m not a huge fan of my river bet, as there are more hands he’ll have that beat me than inferior ones that might call my bet.

Shortly after that a fairly tight and solid player raised early to 1025 and I just called with AK right behind him. He bet 1200 on a ragged flop and I decided to peel in position though I didn’t love the situation. The turn was a king and he now bet just 1400. I wasn’t quite sure what was going on so I just called again. The river was another blank with minimal straight and flush possibilities and he bet 1600. I raised to 6600ish and he called after a minute or two. I’ve found people pay off these sort of spots more often than not suspicious that they just got raised because they made such an obviously weak bet. I finished day one with 45k feeling pretty decent about the water I had just tread over the last four hours without many hands at that tougher table.

Toph and the Unsolvable Hand

2011-07-20T05:51:00.004-06:00

Congrats to Toph Moore on his 21st place finish in the Main Event for $302k, though I know he was bitterly disappointed at falling short of the November Nine. Toph lost a 20 million chip pot near the end of the seventh night that I have been chewing on for the last 24 hours, unable to come up with a solution.

The hand was reported incorrectly on pokernews. The action was essentially this: At 80-160k blinds, Anton Makiievskiy, a strong young Ukrainian player, raised early and Toph called in position with the AJ of hearts. Toph had Anton outchipped roughly 12m to 10m. The flop came out KJJ rainbow. Anton fired a standardish continuation bet of 450k on the flop and Toph raised to 1.1 million. Anton then made it 2 million to go, and Toph clicked it back to 2.9 or 3 million. This all took a while going back and forth with both players carefully considering, but then Anton quickly moved all-in for about 9.2 million, and Toph quickly called. Anton had KJ and the board ran out blanks.

I believe Toph was aware that Anton had bet an 863 flop with J4o after raising preflop, got checkraised by Bryan Devonshire, and then reraised with nothing and took the pot down. I don't think he had much other information about his opponent.

I have thought about this hand over and over and have yet to decide on the appropriate line. I'm sure it will be a hand discussed for years to come in the poker community. It seems like Toph's hand should be played fast and hard for maximum value, but it also seems like he may have overplayed it to get all the chips in to that action. I've considered a ton of different lines for this hand but none feel right.

Main Event Day Four

2011-07-16T00:37:00.003-06:00

I played excellent, excellent poker throughout this tournament. It may have been the best tournament I ever played. But it was not a world-class effort on my end, because I am not a world-class player.

I quickly attributed my in-the-money bustout to a cooler, but the more I thought about and discussed the hand, the more convinced I am that I was supposed to fold. I think a world-class player could have laid it down.

Sandra Naujoks is a world-class beauty in my book, and truly, one of the most desirable women on Earth.

Main Event Day Three

2011-07-15T01:13:00.004-06:00

The tension continues to mount down at the Rio, with the remaining ~900 players now combined together into the Amazon Room. For the first time, ESPN is broadcasting coverage of the event live, with Kara Scott conducting interviews.

This is developing into one of the strangest and most dramatic tournaments I have ever played. I have been extremely card-dead pre and postflop for twenty eight hours of play but have played rather well and hit three crucial turn cards to stay in the hunt. The emotional attachment is growing. When I fight hard to keep my head above water it means more to me - there is a sense of entitlement, and I am starting to feel like I "deserve" to go deep here, as silly as I know that sounds.

Main Event Day Two

2011-07-13T13:17:00.004-06:00

I felt like I played eighteen hours of nearly perfect poker, and was rewarded with a double-up the first time I faltered. I spent a lot of time at tough tables the first two days without many cards. For a while I was sitting there grinding it in shark-infested waters looking at Ana Marquez on the rail.

The Gambler played deep with Marquez in the PCA this year, where she led the field heading into day five before expiring in 10th place. Joel noted how tight she was playing. Tight can be successful in tournament poker, as long as it's got some spice.

I think Ana was railing the prodigiously talented Bryn Kenney, who's probably capable of playing tight but rarely does. Kenney went super deep in last year's Main but lost a crucial pot to Scott Clements before exiting in 28th place.

I was talking with Scott a little bit during the breaks. He was grinding a shortish stack too, just focusing on 100% perfect decisionmaking. He would finish the day with 154k.

Eventually I got moved to a table with the venerable and still foxy Kristy Gazes.

Kristy was playing with great patience, chatting with great charisma.

Late in the night one of the hottest girls I have ever seen at a poker table sat down with a stupendous stack. To my surprise, she was playing a Somervillian smallball game rather than the stereotypical bludgeoning I'd expect from a female with a stack.

I was shocked by the quality of this girl's play, not because she was a girl, but because she was a girl I'd never seen nor heard of. Apparently her name is Cherish Andrews, and she finished the day with 200k after beating me out of a couple small pots. Based on the way she was playing and looking, I don't think it will be long before Cherish is a star in the poker world.

Main Event Day Two

2011-07-13T03:46:00.002-06:00

I feel like I've played about as well as I'm capable of playing the first two days of the tournament and now have 145k in chips with the blinds going to 800-1600-200. Take away one lucky turn card and my stack would be 10% what it is. It's a razor's edge, and the tightrope walk is just beginning.

Four Hotties of the Day coming tomorrow.

Event #58 $10000 NL World Championship

2011-07-11T04:20:00.002-06:00

I managed ten hours of mistake-free poker and finished the day in the pack with 45k. Blinds will be 250-500-50 when we resume on Tuesday.

I have no idea how hot Cardplayer reporter Rebecca McAdam is. I'm really confused on this one. It could just be smoke and mirrors, accent and accents.

The Twenty Players Most Likely To Win The Main Event

2011-07-07T13:13:00.005-06:00

As I noted last year, this exercise becomes more and more pointless every year. There are hundreds of elite no limit hold em players today, thousands of competent tournament players. Some excellent player you and I have never heard of will probably win the Main Event. This is merely a finger on the pulse of the apex of tournament poker at this moment.

20. Scotty Nguyen
Seems too nitty to succeed in today's environment, but his results - particularly in the Main Event - are unassailable.

19. Daniel Negreanu
Due to make some noise in the Main Event.

18. Michael Mizrachi
Still can't believe I left him off last year's list after including him every other year.

17. Erick Lindgren
Nothing to add here; I'll be playing day 1d (Sunday).

16. Jason Somerville
A multi-dimensional game tailored for the Main Event.

15. Hoyt Corkins
Patient yet punishing.

14. Bertrand Grospellier
I used to say I was "good at games." Elky is good at games.

13. John Juanda
Always seems to win one the moment you started to forget about him.

12. Vivek Rajkumar
The rare young guy with a big-pot-poker style.

11. J.C. Tran
Not quite as sharp as he once was, but still might be the most well-rounded NLHE tournament player in the game.

10. Sam Stein
Sam Stein is like a villain from a horror movie franchise. You just can't get rid of him. He just keeps coming around. He never dies.

9. Jason Mercier
At least thirteen six-figure scores in the last 40 months.

8. Shawn Buchanan
The kind of guy who could make the final table without ever being all-in.

7. Eugene Katchalov
Good to see his yeoman's work pay off over the last couple years.

6. Thomas Marchese
Flawless.

5. Carlos Mortensen
Brutally effective over the last decade.

4. Vanessa Selbst
The most terrifying player in the game today.

3. Phil Hellmuth
Always a streaky player, it's clear Hellmuth - the likely WSOP Player of the Year - has gotten into his zone.

2. Gus Hansen
Three top-150 finishes since '04, including multiple chipleads.

1. Erik Seidel
This video says it all.

Event #56 $1500 NL

2011-07-06T14:16:00.002-06:00

I am sad that the WSOP preliminaries are over. When I busted out, it was like saying goodbye to a friend who I won't see again for another year or more. I have always known that I will make a monster score in one of these WSOP $1ks or $1500s, but it didn't happen this year.

David Sands isn't just one of the best looking professional poker players, he's one of the best-looking men I've ever seen.

Event #54 $1000 NL

2011-07-03T13:51:00.006-06:00

Our house has been playing a lot of Dr. Mario on Nintendo64 this summer. The best players in the house play on Level 20, High speed. Even at this most difficult level, a skilled player can navigate her way to the end without much trouble. But when you play that high, there is no room for error. One mistake early on is usually fatal. It takes a sterling effort to overcome any initial hardships.

The most exciting games are the rare ones where you are able to overcome initial adversity, scrapping and clawing to keep your head above water before finally disassembling your tower of viruses and debris and cruising to the finish.

These WSOP $1ks and $1500s do not afford much opportunity for pitfalls. You have to keep winning and winning pots in every level. Even the best players cannot afford to lose any pots of significance or they find themselves at death's doorway. The blinds rise too fast to outlast a run of crappy cards - you simply have to find a way to pick up pots at every juncture of the tournament.

I lost an all-in pot with AKo against AKs early yesterday and found myself down to 500 chips with the blinds at 50-100. But I won two races and then played my ass off, and before I knew it, I had disassembled the tower of debris and found myself with 15k at 100-200-25.

But that wasn't enough. I lost a series of pots in unregrettable spots and busted out.

Two poker hotties of the day since there were two starting days for this event and two gorgeous ladies at my table at different junctures.

This Canadian who was badbeated out far too early:

Glasses are always a tough call. Loosely speaking I am generally against them, but the austere glasses look can be pulled off by the right (usually long-haired) woman.

And then there was this distinctive girl who I have seen around a few times this summer:

I'm assuming she's a pro though I have no idea who she might be. Her striking, unique look seizes attention.

June Top 15

2011-07-02T03:14:00.003-06:00

15. The Airborne Toxic Effect - Changing
14. Rage Against The Machine - Know Your Enemy
13. The Decemberists - Rox in the Box
12. Queen - Another One Bites The Dust
11. Cage The Elephant - Back Against The Wall

10. Tift Merritt - Engine To Turn
9. Tift Merritt - Mixtape
8. Mark Knopfler - What It Is
7. Cake - Sick Of You
6. Cliff Richard - Devil Woman

5. Mark Knopfler - Border Reiver
4. Sublime - What I Got
3. Steve Earle - Feel Alright
2. Young the Giant - My Body

Song of the Month: Tift Merritt - After Today

Event #50 $5000 Triple-Chance NL

2011-06-30T04:39:00.002-06:00

I made the dumbest call I've made in at least a year forty minutes into this tournament, and was punished for that mistake with the most prolonged run of crappy cards I have ever received in a major tournament.

Liv Boeree's results are an inspiration for mediocre longtime tournament pros like myself. It is possible.

Venetian $2500 Day Two

2011-06-29T04:19:00.004-06:00

I busted in 31st place paying 27 the first time I was all-in during the tournament after playing almost all of it with at least 100 BBs. It was one of the more painful tournament exits I've experienced.

A google search for "female full tilt australia" identified Jackie Glazier as the bi-contextually solid woman sitting across the table.

Venetian $2500

2011-06-28T05:29:00.003-06:00

I ran hot all day in this superbly-structured event and finished with 115k in chips with the average around 70k heading into day two.

One of these two people is the Poker Hottie of the Day.

Hint: that person is married to Caio Pimenta.

Event #45 $1000 NL

2011-06-26T19:30:00.005-06:00

Blinds were 100-200 when I raised ATs from middle position to 400. Everyone folded to the small blind, who obviously didn't see me raise. He took a look at the big blind's stack (about 2000) then said "all-in." The big blind folded, I snap-called, the small blind had K8o, and the board ran out JTxKx.

We've reached the dog days of the WSOP, though there is still some snow on Mt. Charleston.

One of these two people is the Poker Hottie of the Day.

Event #43 $1500 NL

2011-06-26T01:52:00.003-06:00

I lost three pots with top pair in the first two hours, folded for the next two, then lost a three-way all-in with AK against AK against ATs.

Poker Hottie of the Day Valdemar Kwaysser sat at an adjacent table.

Event #41 $1500 Limit Hold'em Shootout

2011-06-24T18:15:00.005-06:00

This was my worst performance of the WSOP thus far, as I put in three or four unnecessary big bets and wound up finishing 6th at a tough table.

There is this one WSOP masseuse who looks just like Caroline Wozniacki. Honestly, she's even hotter than Wozniacki, with just about the most gorgeous golden hair I've ever seen. I don't have a creepy i-Phone-taken picture of that dazzling masseuse, but here's one of her doppelganger:

Event #40 $5000 NL Six-Handed

2011-06-23T23:50:00.004-06:00

My bust felt underachieving considering how weak my starting table was. It's pretty disappointing to walk away from this, the $5k shootout, the $2500, and the $2500 out $15k considering how weak my starting tables were.

I wonder who will play Vicky Coren when they adapt her life into a movie. Perhaps Vicky herself will write the screenplay - she's a professional writer as well as an EPT Champion.