Old Farts

Most basketball fans were surprised how quickly the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks were eliminated from the playoffs. Both teams lost 4-1 in the first round. Although they were the 6^th and 7^th seeds in the Western Conference, they were viewed as contenders for the championship. They have been two of the top teams in the NBA the last three years, and their personnel appear to be as strong as ever. Unfortunately, this just isn’t the case. Critical players on both teams have lost much of their effectiveness due to old age.

The sudden decline of these franchises is especially sad when one considers their recent history. Phoenix’s recent upswing begain in 2004 with the arrival of point guard Steve Nash and coach Mike D’Antoni. They initiated a storybook turnaround from out of the playoffs to the best record in the NBA at 62-20. That ‘04-‘05 season ended with a frustrating Western Conference Finals loss to the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs, with the Suns missing the services of star Joe Johnson for the first two games. Young power forward Amare Stoudemire averaged a ridiculous 37 points per game in the series, but the Spurs shut down Nash and the other Phoenix shooters. This would become a recurring postseason nightmare for the Suns.

Johnson wanted more star power and demanded a trade after that season. The Suns were able to get relatively good value (Boris Diaw and two first rounders) for him in a deal with Atlanta, but lost Stoudemire to microfracture knee surgery for the season. That ’05-’06 season, Nash led the Suns to a surprising 54-28 record and collected his second straight MVP award. The Suns enjoyed a thrilling ride in the ’06 playoffs before finally succumbing to the loaded Dallas Mavericks (more on them in a second) in the Western Conference Finals.

Last year Phoenix got Stoudemire back and had another sterling season before losing tragically to the Spurs (again the eventual champs) in an epic second round playoff series. It was clear the Suns were as good or better than the Spurs, but bad luck in close games, injuries, and a wild Robert Horry-instigated incident that led to the suspensions of Stoudemire and Diaw cost them the series and very likely the NBA title.

With the residue of that brutal loss to the Spurs lingering in the desert air like a stale fart, new GM Steve Kerr and the Suns made a controversial trade for Shaquille O’Neal on February 6, 2008. The Suns traded four-time all-star Shawn Marion, their most versatile player and best defender, along with Marcus Banks (salary cap sewage) for Shaq. From the start, the trade was questioned. The Suns got Shaq, a four-time champ and arguably the most dominant player in the NBA over the past fifteen years. But they gave up Marion, and with him gave up their identity. Shaq is the heaviest player in the league, and one of the slowest. The frenetic, high-scoring, new-school system Nash and D’Antoni introduced to Phoenix in 2004 was forever lost when they acquired Shaq. They would now switch to a more standard half-court game. It was a bold trade. It now appears to be one of the worst trades in NBA history.

Shaq is too old. The Big Aristotle is now 36 years of age. He hardly jumps anymore. Against the Spurs, he lost critical rebounds to the likes of Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. He doesn’t make those court-quaking and-one dunks anymore. More often when he gets fouled down low (he still gets fouled most of the time he gets the ball deep) he lays the ball off the glass, misses, then misses both free throws. He made 32 of 64 free throws in the Spurs series – not far off from his career average of 52%, but made only 22 of 50 field goals (44%), way below his career average of 58%. And that doesn’t include all the missed layups he got fouled on. This season, Shaq’s minutes, points, free throw shooting, rebounding, steals, assists, and blocks all declined (assists and blocks were way down), while his turnovers and fouls actually increased despite playing less. The numbers don’t even tell the whole story though. Simply watching the Diesel play a few minutes is enough to tell he’s way over the hill. Stick a fork in the Big Shaqtus. He’s done.

Ultimately the blame falls hard on Kerr, D’Antoni, and Nash. All signed off on the deal, and all now find themselves staring down the barrel of a career-ending gun. This was a franchise-killing trade, and it could have been prevented with just a little reconnaissance. Shaq’s enfeeblement is that obvious.

The sad part for the Suns is this series was winnable, even with Shaq’s corpse. They should have won game one in San Antonio as well as the train wreck that was game 5. Shaq was absolutely horrendous in season-ending game 5. Phoenix would have been better off giving all his minutes to Brian Skinner. These games were there for the taking. In the past, the Suns have gotten beat by really good teams. This Spurs squad was ripe for the picking. But Steve Nash, who is now 34, played very mediocre basketball. In fact, Nash played the worst game I have ever seen him play in game 5. He had a good season, but he seemed to get worse in every successive game of the playoffs. By game 5, he was missing wide open shots and layups like he was Jason Kidd…

The Spurs have cadavers too. At this point, Brent Barry, Robert Horry, and Jacque Vaughn are worthless, and Michael Finley’s value is dropping like the American dollar. Ultimately I believe this will cost them the title. The Big Three may have been enough to get by the Suns, but they will need more help to advance past the better teams they will be facing.

The crash and burn of the Dallas Mavericks has been a little less fiery and will be a little less permanent, but is equally depressing. Two years ago the Mavs led the Miami Heat 2-0 in the NBA Finals and had a big lead in game three. Winning the championship was just a formality; the chances of winning it all were probably at least 90% at one point in that third game.

Then the wheels came flying off. Behind a superhuman performance from Dwyane Wade, a still-effective Shaquille O’Neal, clutch choking from a few key performers, bad luck, and the worst major-sport officiating of the last twenty years, the Heat won that game three and the next three to win the NBA Championship.

Dallas appeared to recover the next season, going 67-15 (6^th best all-time) and gaining the West’s #1 seed. But they were shockingly ousted by the 8th-seeded Golden State Warriors in the first round.

This season, the Mavs found themselves back in the pack of Western Conference contenders. Seeking a magical potion that would put them back at the top of the Conference, the Mavs traded Devin Harris (a nice young guard), DeSagana Diop (a defensive specialist), Maurice Ager (a low value young guard), Keith Van Horn (who was retired), Trenton Hassell (another defensive specialist), 3 million dollars, and first round draft picks in 2008 and 2010 for 35 year-old point guard Jason Kidd, Malik Allen (useless) and Antoine Wright (more useless). Essentially they lost Harris, who figures to have eight to ten decent seasons, Diop (who has shown steady improvement, is still only 25, and was already an important contributor), the cash, and the picks (which figure to be fairly low cause the Mavs generally have a good record) in exchange for Kidd, a future Hall of Fame point guard with the following all-time NBA rankings:

• 3^rd in triple doubles
• 4^th in rebounds by a guard
• 5^th in assists per game
• 5^th in assists
• 11^th in steals
• 11^th in 3-pointers made

For a team with the assets of the Mavericks and the deep pockets of owner Mark Cuban, trading away several non-superstars for a superstar is not an unreasonable move. You can only play five guys at a time in basketball. Having a lot of decent players gets you nowhere. It’s all about having the very best players.

One problem – Jason Kidd isn’t one of the best players anymore. There are at least six point guards in the NBA who are significantly better right now. He’s a very poor shooter (33% lifetime threes, 38% this season on always wide-open looks, 38% overall shooting). He’s not as fast as he used to be. He gets burned on defense and misses layups. He still gets a ton of rebounds and might be the best passer alive, but his decreased speed means he’s not creating as many opportunities. Teams know he can’t shoot so they play off him. His impact in the first-round loss to the Hornets was moderate – 8.6 pts on 42% shooting, 6.8 assists, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 1.8 turnovers in 36 minutes a game. Compare those numbers to last season’s when Kidd averaged a triple-double over the span of twelve playoff games. Or compare them to the numbers of Chris Paul, the man on the other side of the ball in this series. Paul averaged 24.6 points, 50% shooting, 12 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1.2 turnovers in 40 minutes a game. It’s pretty easy to see where Dallas lost this series.

Jason Kidd will be 36 before the end of next season. He’s under contract to make $20 million (the maximum) next year. Shaquille O’Neal will be 37. He’s on tap for two more years at $20 million per. The deterioration of Kidd’s skills is less obvious than that of Shaquille O’Neal’s, but still readily apparent. It’s mind-boggling that NBA executives – men paid to assess basketball talent and use those assessments to make decisions to improve their teams – couldn’t see this decay. A couple hours on the couch should have been enough to dissuade them from mortgaging away the future of their franchises for quick-fix players who didn’t even make them better in the present.