Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Week Fifteen Observations


1. Peyton Manning is the greatest executioner of bad teams the NFL has ever seen. It takes a brainy, diabolical defense to take him down.

2. The Buffalo Bills have proven that no matter how talented your running backs and wide receivers are, there is nothing more important in the NFL than the quarterback and his offensive line.

3. New England's offense is nothing special without the deep strikes to Randy Moss.

4. I was happy to see Lions rookie safety Louis Delmas house one for 100 yards against the Cardinals, as he has played hard and well all season.

5. You know how people are always saying "that guy is a warrior" or "I would go to war with that guy" or "that's a guy you want in your foxhole"? Well, if I had to go to war with one NFL player, it would be Anquan Boldin. That guy is a warrior.

6. It's funny to think Jason Snelling was actually looking better than Michael Turner earlier this season. He looks very mediocre now. Turner's injury could not have been timed worse for the Falcons.

7. Atlanta OC Mike Mularkey has been a huge disappointment this season after virtuoso work in '08.

8. But not as big a disappointment as DE John Abraham, who went from Defensive MVP candidate to average pass rusher.

9. Brad Smith is an interesting player I've never discussed here. His skill set is pretty similar to that of Josh Cribbs. It's rarely a bad idea to call a play for Smith or Cribbs, especially considering their starting quarterbacks.

10. The Jets played a great defensive game for 58 minutes, then forgot to cover Tony Gonzalez on fourth down in a spot where Matt Ryan would obviously be looking his way.

11. You would think a team that scored 41 points would have had a strong performance from its quarterback, but that wasn't the case for the Browns on Sunday. Brady Quinn, who will miss the last two games of the season, has rarely looked good duringhis pro career. Cleveland basically had the exact same season from their quarterbacks as they had in 2008, and they are in the exact same position as they were a year ago.

12. A friend was asking me why Josh Cribbs has more kickoff return touchdowns than anyone in league history. I didn't have a great answer, but watching the two Cribbs TDs this week, I realized that it's the combination of everything. He isn't as fast as Ted Ginn or as balanced as Devin Hester. He doesn't have the moves of Dante Hall or the power of Maurice Jones-Drew, but he isn't lacking in any quality. It all starts with vision, fearlessness, and attitude, and it ends with speed. The difference with Cribbs is that he can break a tackle OR juke a guy if the traditional method (find a hole and run past everyone) isn't readily available.

13. I love how Kansas City traded away All-Pros at defensive end and tight end, and now they could really use a decent defensive end and tight end.

14. Although he will be a chic second round pick in 2010 fantasy drafts, there has never been a moment when I was impressed by something Jamaal Charles did on the football field. He is fast, but not Chris Johnson fast.

15. The Chief I like as a fantasy sleeper in 2010 is Matt Cassel. He's a gamer.

16. Vince Young converts a couple third downs every game with his legs. Two bonus first downs per game makes a huge difference.

17. Miami had a nice call trailing 24-6 facing a fourth and three from the 27 yard line with five and a half minutes left in the third quarter against the Titans. It's easy to panic and go for it there, but kicking the field goal is a smarter play when you have a decent kicker.

18. Tie game. Miami has the ball. Second and six from their own five yard line. 53 seconds left. Tennessee has all three timeouts left; Miami has one. Jeff Fisher didn't call timeout here, instead letting the game run out to overtime.

I thought this was the worst coaching decision of the entire season. Miami has little big play ability. The chances of the Dolphins getting the ball into field goal range in this situation cannot be good. They are just going to try to get a first down. The Titans, however, have a great shot at getting a field goal attempt of their own in this situation. All they have to do is stop the Dolphins - who are backed up in their own zone - from getting a first down and they will get the ball around midfield or better with more than thirty seconds on the clock. They will also have a timeout if they force an incomplete pass. Horrible, horrible endgame from Fisher and the Titans staff.

19. Philadelphia's offensive design is excellent. They do such an amazing job at shifting the pocket, manipulating the line of scrimmage, finding mismatches, and attacking defenses. It's a little strange because they seem to have a hard time adjusting when the plan doesn't work. Every season they have one or two games where they just cannot find any answers on offense - despite looking like world-beaters in most of their other games. Make no mistake about it - Philly can win the Super Bowl. Their A-game is as strong as anyone's.

20. Green Bay's defense is like Philly's offense in that it looks very good most of the time, but occasionally has off games where they can't stop anybody. The Pack is like Philly in that they could get hot and make a Super Bowl run, but they are clearly flawed and could never be considered elite.

21. I just want everyone to know that even though San Diego is 10-3, even though he's been making a mark on the record books lately, even though his team pays their running backs more than anyone else, LaDainian Tomlinson is the worst starting tailback in the league. You think LT could run for 286 yards in a game? I just cannot get over how wimpy his speed/power combination is. He never, ever breaks a tackle and he can't outrun anyone either.

22. The Chargers started 2-3. They have suffered numerous key injuries. They have no running back and no defensive line. Yet they have won nine games in a row and will probably get a bye the first round of the playoffs. They have one of the most innovative offenses in the league. It seems comical to even think about it, but don't we need to start considering Norv Turner for Coach of the Year?

23. Here's a classic example of clock-butchering that I see all the time. Bengals with the ball down 14-10. Carson Palmer throws a pass over the middle to Andre Caldwell, who is tackled for a Bengals first down at the seven yard line with 35 seconds left. The Bengals have one timeout left, but decide not to use it here. Instead, they get everyone to the line and spike the ball with 22 seconds left. On second and third downs, Palmer throws incompletions, and Cincy kicks a field goal with ten seconds left in the half. They go to the half with a timeout in their pocket.

The thinking behind spiking the ball on first down is to save the timeout in case of a sack. But it's so hard to convert a touchdown from the seven, you need as many cracks at it as you can get. Calling a timeout rather than spiking the ball gives you time to take three shots - passing - at the end zone, and then you can still kick the field goal on fourth down. If there is a sack on first or second down, you can spike the ball and still have time to kick a field goal. If there is a sack on third down, you will probably still have time as well.

That clock management error along with a couple punts the Bengals failed to pin and a horrifying false start/delay of game/delay of game trifecta really hurt them in this hugely meaningful game.

24. Is Kyle Orton the least mobile quarterback in the NFL? He really goes down easy, and you will never see him make an athletic play.

25. I think Michael Bush would be a major star on a lot of teams.

26. The Giants are perhaps the best example of why my NFL picks have been so bad this season. I hung with them after their losing streak began, counting them amongst the league's best teams. Then, finally I admitted my mistake and put them back in the pack of mediocrity - just as they got it together and became contenders again. I don't know what to think of these teams, I don't know if the Saints are fading or hiccuping, I don't know if the Eagles or Patriots will cruise through the playoffs or go down in round one, I don't know if the Chargers are the league's best team or ripe for an upset, and I don't know which of the eight AFC Wild Card contenders are going to make it in. I just know that anyone can win on Any Given Sunday, I really want to see a Packers/Vikings playoff game, I am excited to see playoff football in the Superdome, and luck and variance will have great impact on who walks away with the title.

Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: James Anderson, Carolina
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Travelle Wharton, Carolina
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Ron Meeks, Carolina
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Bruce Arians, Pittsburgh
Defensive MVP of the Week: Anthony Spencer, Dallas
Offensive MVP of the Week: Josh Cribbs, Cleveland

Power Rankings:

32. Detroit (32)
31. St. Louis (30)
30. Kansas City (29)
29. Tampa Bay (31)
28. Cleveland (28)
27. Seattle (25)
26. Chicago (24)
25. Buffalo (27)
24. Oakland (26)
23. Washington (19)
22. Carolina (23)
21. Jacksonville (21)
20. New York Jets (22)
19. Atlanta (20)
18. Houston (18)
17. San Francisco (17)
16. Miami (15)
15. Denver (13)
14. New York Giants (16)
13. Baltimore (12)
12. Pittsburgh (11)
11. Tennessee (14)
10. Arizona (10)
9. Cincinnati (8)
8. Dallas (9)
7. San Diego (6)
6. New England (4)
5. Green Bay (5)
4. Philadelphia (7)
3. Minnesota (3)
2. New Orleans (1)
1. Indianapolis (2)

10 Comments:

Blogger smokkee said...

how in the world is SD ranked behind NE,PHI and GB??

SD's running game is ranked ahead of the Colts.

the NFL has changed. establishing the run it overrated. get yourself a couple of 6'5" WR's and an unstoppable TE along with a 5'6" speedster running screens out of the backfield and you don't need a freakin run game son.

SD's special teams and defense do not get enough credit.

the bitterness from a Denver fan is expected after the Broncos have donked the 2nd half of the last 2 seasons.

SAN DIEGO SUPA CHARGERS !

5:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why do you have the 49ers so high they stink man.

9:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's hear your comments on the Pittsburgh onside kick up 2 point with 4 minutes left. That's one of the worst calls of the year. I bet it decreased their win percentage by over 20%.

7:50 PM  
Blogger Brad said...

I figured Jerome Harrison would have offensive breakout of the week on lock.

8:24 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Disagree on Pitt onside kick. It was a calculated risk. I think any argument for the onside outweigh any argument against. Pittsburgh couldn't hold the other team on defense. The Steelers were either going to recover and win the game, or Green Bay would score with enough time on the clock for Pitt to drive and win. Kicking long lets Green Bay wind down the clock and win the game as the Steelers defense could not stop them the entire game.

9:36 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Miami miami, such a stammering city, it's worse than Mbandaka

8:01 PM  
Blogger Ryan Wanger said...

@matt

Pitt wins the game if they recover that onside kick? Hardly. There was still enough time left for both teams to put together touchdown drives.

They were also only up two. Being up four or five would have made a huge difference. Then, a GB field goal doesn't take the lead (they only needed to gain 5 yards to get into field goal range after the onside)...and a pitt field goal (if they recover) would put them up by 1 score or more.

Also, last year, Aaron Rodgers consistently couldn't engineer come from behind game winning drives...so why not put him to the test?

I guess the irony is that they let Green Bay score quickly enough that there was enough time to come down the field and score again. (albeit with 0 seconds to spare)

Though it sounds like you would probably argue that Green Bay should have tried an onside kick after scoring so they could guarantee victory?

10:52 AM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

I actually was leaning towards Matt's opinions, but forgot to bring this up here. I thought it was kind of sneaky-clever for all the reasons Matt mentioned, plus they had it set up just right and really should have had it if they executed better.

12:41 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

The Tomlin onsides kick shows a complete lack of understanding of NFL coaching.

And I love when people (including Tomlin himself) say that they "should have had it if not for..."

That's why it's assinine.

The best thing is, no matter how unmittigatingly stupid a coaching decision is in this league, there are always monkeys out the next morning trying to defend it.

8:31 AM  
Blogger 81Trucolors said...

Smokkee: "the bitterness from a Denver fan is expected after the Broncos have donked the 2nd half of the last 2 seasons. "

Last five seasons, really. :(

10:19 AM  

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