Friday, August 03, 2012

2012 NFL Over/Unders

Anyone with an interest in betting on the NFL should
  1. Realize how foolish that pursuit is
  2. Withdraw all available funds they have in any sportsbooks
  3. Read the Football Outsiders Almanac
  4. Submit to a CT scan of the head

On that note, here are my favorite over/unders entering the 2012 season:

San Francisco UNDER 10 wins (-120)
A snap-call: the most overachieving team of 2011 has to win eleven games for you to lose. Outsiders has the Niners projected for a paltry 7.2 wins, an indictment which moved the juice down to the -120 I got it at, and subsequently, -135. This one was so tasty I added a "Field wins NFC West" bet at +220 to the mix.  

Houston UNDER 10 wins (+105)
The Texans are replacing 40% of their sterling offensive line with backups this season.

Baltimore UNDER 10 wins (-125)
I had a lot on Baltimore's under last season and paid the price. Taking another shot here with Terrell Suggs out for most or all of the season. 

Indianapolis OVER 5.5 wins (+160)
I believe in Andrew Luck. I believe in positive juice.

Jacksonville OVER 5.5 wins (+115)
Little-known fact: Jacksonville had the fifth best defense in football last season. Whether it's a more-experienced Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne throwing (to Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson), their pass offense simply has to be better. The energy infusion of a new ownership and coach should account for a win or two as well.

Minnesota OVER 6 wins (+120)
This was a close-your-eyes-and-swallow-quickly bet, based on a favorable Outsiders projection, inevitable improvement from Christian Ponder, and the NFL's 30th place schedule.

I also took three teams to win the Super Bowl:
  • Green Bay at +570
  • New England at +640
  • Philadelphia at +1400


Blogger TheGraveWolf said...

Hey what was the line on the Broncos to win the Superbowl? Any predictions about them? Peyton?

6:08 PM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

Broncos +2200 to win Super Bowl. Seems about right.

10:23 PM  
Blogger 81Trucolors said...

I really like your bets except for Andrew Luck + Colts over 5.5. Let me know if you want more action on this.

9:14 AM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Can I get on the other side of that Eagles superbowl bet?

12:34 PM  

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