Yes, I Really Folded Kings Preflop Getting 4.8 to 1

Blinds were 100-200 with no ante in Monday's $2k NLHE when a tightish player (we'll call him "Jeff") raised under the gun to 600, third position flat-called, and then Robin Keston in fourth position made it like 2500 to go. Robin was playing sort of weird, he was involved in few hands but usually when he was involved he was making gigantic bets, trying to get all-in preflop. I looked down at two kings and shoved in pretty fast for like 6500. It folded to "Jeff" and he folded within a couple seconds, then Robin announced it was a cooler and called with the other two kings and we chopped it up. After the hand there was some discussion wherein Jeff said he had two queens, that "there was no way two queens would ever be good there."

Just a few hands later, Jeff raised to 550 in middle position and Robin made it 1850 on the button with about 3500 behind. In the small blind, I again looked down at kings. This time I thought longer, but not too long, and then made it 4500 leaving myself with 2900. Within a second or two of my bet, Jeff had lined his chips into a stack and moved that stack into the middle of the table. Now it got to Robin, and he thought about it for maybe twelve seconds before mucking. Robin had been acting instantaneously with every decision, so I really felt like he had just made a big laydown. I thought he had just folded queens, kings, or ace-king. Anything else I felt like he would have folded immediately.

So now it's on me and I'm very close to certain that Jeff has aces. I knew he didn't have queens or ace-king based on the previous hand and I was also pretty sure he would have thought for a bit with kings and not instantly shipped it. Jeff was relaxed the whole time, not concerned about going broke like most of these guys are in the low buy-in WSOP events. He told me to throw it away and give myself a chance. He said "you know what I got" and other things of that nature. I don't know if I've explained it comprehensively, but in my mind the chances of Jeff having aces were over 95%.

Jeff had put in 4500 (my raise) + 2900 (the rest of my stack, he had me covered). Robin had put in 1850, I had put in 4500, and the big blind accounted for 200. So there was 4500 + 4500 + 1850 + 200 + 2900 = 13,950 in the pot, and it was 2900 for me to call. 13,950/2900 = 4.81 - I was getting 4.8 to 1 to call. Even if he shows me aces, I am mathematically "supposed" to call, as a random pair of kings is only about a 4.5 to 1 underdog to a random pair of aces (correct me if I'm wrong on any of this, math guys).

But there were two other things I was thinking about. First, I was really worried that Keston folded ace-king or the other two kings. I would be in a heap of trouble if he folded ace-king, and almost dead if he somehow laid kings. It seemed unlikely that he folded kings - he probably would have taken a little longer to fold, he might not have folded at all, and of course I had two kings so it's unlikely he did too. Ace-king was a real possibility, though queens seemed more likely. Him folding queens hurts me a little bit too, as it's harder for me to make a straight.

The other thing I was thinking about is how comfortable I am playing the short stack, and how commonly I come back from those depths. 2900 playing 100-200 is not a desperate situation for me, not even particularly distressing. I'm not bad with a big stack and it would be nice to have 16,000, but I knew I could come back from 2900.

So finally I did fold, the first time I have folded pocket kings in a tournament, and Jeff was nice enough to show me what I already knew he had, two aces.