Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Week Eleven Observations


1. All season, Ricky Williams has been one of the best backs in the league. We were watching the game and some commentator said "he needs to play like the 2002 Ricky Williams tonight" and someone I was with said "he needs to play like the 2009 Ricky Williams tonight." Ricky could be the #1 player in fantasy over the second half of the season.

2. Atlanta's Eric Weems is overdue to take one to the house on a return.

3. I was dumbfounded to see Jason Elam miss another field goal for the Falcons this week. I wasn't surprised that he missed, just flabbergasted that he was still on the team.

4. Ahmad Bradshaw looks like a guy trying to run on a broken foot.

5. Matthew Stafford showed why he was the #1 pick in April's draft on Sunday. I'm not talking about heart or tenacity but rather his arm and amazing ability to launch rockets downfield without a clean dropback. He made a couple throws in that game that only three or four people on the planet can make.

6. Even knowing Eric Mangini is one of the worst coaches in the league, I was still completely taken aback by some of the decisions he made late in Sunday's game against the Lions. The first came after the Browns scored a touchdown with 5:44 left to take a 35-31 lead. The Mangenius decided to go for two here. I don't understand this at all, as a six point lead is hardly better than a five point lead but a five point lead is significantly better than a four point lead as it would allow the Browns to tie the game with a field goal if Detroit scored a touchdown. Mangini's other curious decisions are broken down here.

7. I was stunned to see Brady Quinn bombing the ball down the field with accuracy and confidence, even if it was against a college-level defense. I was ready to close the book on Quinn but maybe there is still hope for the former Notre Damer.

8. Redskins ball, second and one from the 20, 21 seconds left in the first half. Jason Campbell throws the ball away milliseconds before running out of bounds for minus five yards, then the 'Skins take a delay of game penalty, then they decide to kick a 48-yard field goal on 3rd and 11 with 15 seconds left...then the Campbell play is reviewed and confirmed, then the delay of game penalty is reversed, then the Skins attempt a 39-yarder with the same 15 seconds left (out of timeouts)....and Shaun Suisham hooks it left.

9. The Vikings are very dangerous in the red zone with Brett Favre firing BBs at Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin.

10. Screens and checkdowns to Justin Forsett didn't help the Seahawks beat the Vikings, but they did push me over the top in a critical late-season fantasy matchup.

11. At this point it seems doubtful the Pack can fix their coverage teams. Obviously they know they have a problem there and must be working hard to correct it, but it's not happening.

12. Donald Driver is the kind of guy you want on your NFL team, your fantasy team, your pickup team, and just maybe, your '09-'10 NFC Pro Bowl team.

13. Sadly, inevitably, Ray Lewis's career is coming to an end.

14. For some reason, legacy I guess, CBS is giving Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf their #2 game of the week. These guys are murdering the games. Colts 17, Ravens 15 could have been a classic in the right hands.

15. CBS's Dick Enberg, normally one of the best, was terrible Sunday in Denver. He has no chemistry with Dan Fouts, who is always a train wreck in the booth.

16. Another CBS play-by-play man, Kevin Harlan, is absolutely obsessed with calling out blocks on every play. It's a unique and hilarious style. Check it out the next time you watch a Harlan game. This has drinking game potential.

17. New Buffalo coach Perry Fewell cost his team forty seconds of clock failing to call a timeout late in a close game vs the Jaguars.

18. It seems to me the Saints have two general game plans on offense. The first is the classic aggressive offense with Drew Brees chucking bombs to Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem, mid-range throws to Marques Colston, and Reggie Bush screens. The second is a more conservative approach featuring a heavy dose of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell running the ball inside with Brees taking shorter drops and throwing higher percentage passes. They have used the latter strategy against the bad teams like the Bills and Bucs to grind out simple low-variance wins. I imagine we will see the aerial assault Monday night.

19. The stunning losses of the Steelers and Bengals were flukes more than anything else. I still expect both teams as well as the Ravens to make the playoffs out of the AFC North. In fact, I just bet the Ravens at 50-1 to win the Super Bowl.

20. Watching the Pats dismantle the Jets on Sunday, it was hard to believe the Pats actually lost to them earlier this season. No team has improved as much as New England since that Week 2 matchup and no team has regressed further than the Jets.

21. Suddenly Mark Sanchez is making a run at LVP. I thought JaMarcus Russell had that one wrapped up.

22. Bill Belichick was up to his old tricks at the end of that game, ordering up bombs to Wes Welker with a seventeen point lead with forty seconds left.

23. Tom Brady's '09 continues to eerily resemble Peyton Manning's '08. Brady is basically back to his '07 form and the Patriots are damn close. The epic Monday night showdown pits the team generally accepted to be the NFL's best (New Orleans) against the team Vegas considers the best (New England).

24. Although I love the Broncos and root for them to win every game, I think I am pretty unbiased evaluating the teams. There is one exception, however: the San Diego Chargers. I despise the Chargers. I'm sick of LaDainian Tomlinson. I hate Philip Rivers. I hate Shawne Merriman more. I scoff at Norv Turner. This, week 11, was the first time all season I started to give the Chargers any credit for playing good football. As much as I hate to admit it, they have a good team. There isn't anything they're above average at other than throwing the ball and special teams, but they are so good at those two things that they should make the playoffs and may endanger the seasons of superior teams once there.

25. The Chargers now appear to be a better team than the Broncos and outplayed them Sunday, but 32-3 was not an accurate reflection of what happened at Invesco that afternoon. 28-20 would have been more indicative.

26. Bruce Gradkowski is not suitable to start in the NFL, but he plays with a lot more courage and passion than JaMarcus Russell and gives the Raiders a better chance to win.

27. There was a touching moment Sunday night when Donovan McNabb found Jay Cutler and drew him close to say some things after the game, which Cutler had just choked away for the Bears. McNabb has lost his fair share of games over the years for the Eagles and consistently drawn heat from the media and fans. Both players are consistently inconsistent, constantly winning games their teams should lose and blowing games they should win. Both are mobile, fearless, and strong-armed. McNabb has reached a point in his career where he seems immune to the criticism. He has the thickest skin in the league. I expect the same career path for Cutler.

28. I thought Vince Young taking over for Kerry Collins was nothing more than a desperate move from a desperate team, but Young is really playing well right now. His accuracy is improved and his third down scrambles are backbreaking.

29. Running the option is rarely a good idea in the NFL, but then, few teams have Vince Young and Chris Johnson to execute it.

Thanksgiving Picks:

Also like:
BRONCOS +6.5 over Giants

If forced to choose:

LIONS +11 over Packers
Raiders +13.5 over COWBOYS

Goat of the Week: Andre Caldwell, Cincinnati
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Leslie Frazier, Minnesota
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Scott Linehan, Detroit
Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Andy Studebaker, Kansas City
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Tom Santi, Indianapolis
Defensive MVP of the Week: Cullen Jenkins, Green Bay
Offensive MVP of the Week: Brett Favre, Minnesota

Power Rankings:

32. Cleveland (32)
31. Tampa Bay (28)
30. Detroit (29)
29. Kansas City (30)
28. Oakland (31)
27. St. Louis (26)
26. Buffalo (27)
25. Seattle (24)
24. New York Jets (21)
23. Carolina (20)
22. Chicago (25)
21. Jacksonville (22)
20. Washington (23)
19. San Francisco (19)
18. Atlanta (16)
17. Houston (15)
16. Miami (18)
15. Tennessee (17)
14. Denver (14)
13. Philadelphia (12)
12. New York Giants (10)
11. Arizona (9)
10. Green Bay (11)
9. Dallas (8)
8. San Diego (13)
7. Baltimore (7)
6. Cincinnati (6)
5. Pittsburgh (5)
4. New England (4)
3. Minnesota (3)
2. Indianapolis (2)
1. New Orleans (1)

7 Comments:

Blogger bc said...

It's hard to think Brees is a better choice for MVP than Brett Favre. The Saints opponents this year have 37 total wins (counting doubles) and the Vikings opponents have 36. If not for Chester Taylor's missed catch, they would have had a great shot to beat the Steelers and Favre would have looked like a hero quarterback for sticking that pass in there. With a nearly 7 point higher QB rating (for whatever that's worth) and a much younger team (combining years in the NFL and years with the team) Favre looks like a very clear choice over Brees.

12:03 AM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

Good thoughts bc but I think Brees has the advantage because the Saints weren't necessarily expected to contend but the Vikings were.

12:27 AM  
Blogger zach said...

Hard to imagine the Skins being ranked ahead of Jacksonville or Carolina.

Up 6-0 and driving on Dallas with less than 6 minutes left in the game I promise you 80% of DC was thinking "we're going to lose this game 7-6". I know everyone I was with was. That's not the 20th best team sadly ... but there's always another midling, non-rebuilding with our buddies Dan Snyder and Vinnie Cerato.

9:19 AM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

Washington's point differential is -32, Jacksonville's is -36, and Carolina's is -46. Washington has played an easier schedule based on opponents records, but the Skins are playing their best ball of the season. So you tell me.

12:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More comments on the announcers please. As a whole, I find that the NFL dumbs-down their commentary more than any other sport. You can't get through one game without hearing about the trenches, the importance of turnovers and running the football. And lord help the viewer if Bob Sanders or Brett Favre are on the field.

3:28 AM  
Blogger zach said...

I agree that they're looking a little better - but bad wins against Rams and Bucs and an admittedly decent win against a reeling Broncos team who's QB was hurt thus bringing in Chris "who knew I was alive" Simms doesn't seem good enough.

Also, per point before, you just can't discount this team's uncanny ability to screw up close games. Even playing poorly we should be 6-4 against this cupcake schedule if we hadn't blow games late against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Lions. That's got to count against us.

5:46 AM  
Blogger jamalik said...

tom i know you've been fairly unbiased but that was no 28-20 game. (I do, however, live in SD now.)

11:42 PM  

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