Hand of the Day

I have been spending some time studying and analyzing hand histories. Here is one from heads-up play at the final table of the Aussie Millions Main Event:

Hand #411: James Keys opened to 225,000 and David Gorr three-bet to 750,000 from the big blind. Keys shuffled chips in his right hand for roughly a minute before moving all in as Gorr quickly called for his 4,140,000 total.

Keys:
Gorr:

With Gorr dominating his heads-up opponent, the flop gave Keys the second best flop without taking the lead (with a standard up and down with a flush draw being the best).

The on the turn changed little, and as both players stayed seated, the spiked on the river to send Gorr soaring back into the lead with 8,280,000 as Keys slips to 6,190,000 in chips.

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Before I saw the flop, I said to myself that I would have just called if I was Keys. Gorr is an "old man" literally and in the sense that he seems to play pretty straightforward poker, generally waiting for good hands and not making many big moves. It's not to say that he's not a skilled player, but studying the hand histories, he wasn't reraising with the same frequency of the average younger player. Gorr's betsizing also indicates a strong hand (though probably not a big pair).

I think KQ suited is a great hand to play in position in a reraised pot, particularly with these stack sizes. Keys had the ideal stack to shove over a Gorr continuation bet on the flop. If Keys flopped a flush draw or straight draw, he would have fold equity to get Gorr off marginal holdings postflop. Say Gorr had ace-ten, and elected to c-bet a JT4 flop. Keys shoves, and Gorr is put in a bad spot.

The obvious example, of course, is what actually happened. If Keys flatcalls this bet, Gorr is hung out to dry. When Gorr c-bets that flop, Keys shoves, and Gorr is forced to fold or make an outlandish call. If Gorr checks, Keys can just shove all-in, or make a pot-committing bet if he feels that is more likely to chase away Gorr.

Hindsight is always 20/20 of course, and Gorr won the tournament four hands later (albeit on a bad beat) on a hand that never would have happened if Keys had played that KQ of hearts differently.