Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Toph and the Unsolvable Hand

Congrats to Toph Moore on his 21st place finish in the Main Event for $302k, though I know he was bitterly disappointed at falling short of the November Nine. Toph lost a 20 million chip pot near the end of the seventh night that I have been chewing on for the last 24 hours, unable to come up with a solution.

The hand was reported incorrectly on pokernews. The action was essentially this: At 80-160k blinds, Anton Makiievskiy, a strong young Ukrainian player, raised early and Toph called in position with the AJ of hearts. Toph had Anton outchipped roughly 12m to 10m. The flop came out KJJ rainbow. Anton fired a standardish continuation bet of 450k on the flop and Toph raised to 1.1 million. Anton then made it 2 million to go, and Toph clicked it back to 2.9 or 3 million. This all took a while going back and forth with both players carefully considering, but then Anton quickly moved all-in for about 9.2 million, and Toph quickly called. Anton had KJ and the board ran out blanks.

I believe Toph was aware that Anton had bet an 863 flop with J4o after raising preflop, got checkraised by Bryan Devonshire, and then reraised with nothing and took the pot down. I don't think he had much other information about his opponent.

I have thought about this hand over and over and have yet to decide on the appropriate line. I'm sure it will be a hand discussed for years to come in the poker community. It seems like Toph's hand should be played fast and hard for maximum value, but it also seems like he may have overplayed it to get all the chips in to that action. I've considered a ton of different lines for this hand but none feel right.


Blogger BLAARGH! said...

I watched that hand on espn. My feeling was that it was overplayed. He's only getting a worse hand (which he wants to stay in) to fold, and going broke (as he did) to a better hand. He could have tried to pot control to the river and (maybe) not gone broke - and maybe folded to a river shove - but that would have been tough against that guy - he was pretty spazzy. I thought the entire time that Anton had KK - but wasn't all that surprised to see KJ.

Thanks for all the updates on your wsop - they were fun to read every morning :)

9:33 AM  
Blogger TheGraveWolf said...

What about 'Moon and the Unsolvable Hand'? Your readership is still waiting for some details/more than a cursory analysis of that hand - especially given your comments that you feel you misplayed it. Do you still feel that way? Fill us in on the details (opponents, thoughts by you during hand) that PokerNews is unable to provide.

1:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You expect him to get away from this? They are like 70 bb effective and he flopped top trip against some capable of 3 bet bluffing the flop. Talk about result oriented. What about when he shows QJ or A9s spewtarding?

3:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm with anonymous; it's a pretty results-oriented thought process to worry so much about this hand imo.


5:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you have contact with the outside world? Will NFL owners and players reach agreement today or soon (thinking back on some posts from earlier this year)? AJ

11:33 AM  
Blogger gaamblor said...

call the 3 bet on the flop, call again on the turn and call the river

same result, you can't not double up a 21 yr old ukranian in this spot.

agree with other comment that your bustout hand has more interesting aspects

1:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think unsolvable is a good way to describe this hand.
Justin DeFront

1:22 PM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

Gaamblor's line seems most logical, and it leads to having to make an extremely difficult lay or calling off and shipping stacks. Same situation as played - either an extremely difficult lay on the flop (which is what it appeared Busquet was advocating) or shipping stacks.

3:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah with anon3's line you might be able to fold a river or two, but I think you get way less spewing and may let worse strong hands off the hook.

I definitely like the line as played.

5:13 PM  
Blogger BLAARGH! said...

really? going broke on trips where you only have one of the cards and your opponent showing MASSIVE strength by shoving... he gave every indication that he expected a call from Jx, which is what he got. It's a really tough fold, but for all your chips there? I'm sure there are better spots.

11:16 PM  

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