Offseason Observations Part II: The AFC

I am not a college football expert. I do not watch game tape of obscure college games and players. I don’t pore over 40 yard dash times, vertical leaps, standing broad jumps, bench presses, or Wonderlic test scores. I couldn’t tell you if Mark Sanchez is the next Tom Brady, if Tyson Jackson went too early at #3 overall, or who was the best center in the draft. But I am a games player. I understand concepts like game theory, opportunity cost, elasticity of demand, and risk vs reward. My favorite board game, The Settlers of Catan, is all about resource management and trading. My second favorite board game, Puerto Rico, is all about microeconomics and game theory. So while I can’t analyze the NFL draft in terms of personnel, I can break it down from a gamer’s perspective – how well each team allocated and organized their limited resources. And I can dissect the transactions teams have made for players who have already played in the NFL, as well as the positional strengths and weaknesses of the teams and where I expect they will be weak or strong.

1. I can tell you that what the New England Patriots did (trading two third-rounders for second-rounders in 2010) is efficient. What the Denver Broncos did (trading a 2010 first rounder for the 37th pick in this year’s draft, then trading two third-rounders for the last pick of the second round) is clearly inefficient. I hate using future picks as trading up in the draft. How can these execs be so short-sighted? How can it possibly be worth it to lose a round’s worth of value just to get a guy a year earlier? There are a lot of reasons why the Patriots are the league’s top franchise, and their strategy of repeatedly trading current picks for better future ones is a big part of it. Belichick & co. are laughing all the way to the bank.

2. I also like what the Patriots have done in free agency. Shawn Springs is an excellent player who was playing at a very high level last year before he was injured. Leigh Bodden seemed like one of Detroit’s better players on defense. You won’t be seeing Deltha O’Neal anymore, Pats fans. And Fred Taylor still has a spring in his step. To me, the Patriots are the favorite this upcoming season and every one in the future.

3. Everyone seems to be glowing over the Jets trade with Cleveland to grab Mark Sanchez. But the Jets gave up five players (the 17th pick, the 52nd pick, DE Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam, and QB Brett Ratliff) to get one back! This trade would never fly in Settlers of Catan. Not only did they give up five players, but four of them (assuming the picks aren’t busts) will be significant contributors. Even Ratliff has generated some positive buzz. I hate trading five players for one mystery quantity.

Speaking of Sanchez, it seems most of the positive hype surrounding him centered on his interviews and leadership skills. This is football, not politics. Can he play? Can he make the throws? Meanwhile, all the Sanchez highlights I saw were with no defenders around, throwing to streaking wide receivers with no defenders around them in perfect weather. Let’s see how he fares against the Patriots in December. By the way, New York’s two best receivers are Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey, and their offensive line looked like crap late last season. The Jets traded a third-rounder (which would have been a second rounder if they had made the playoffs, first rounder if they had made the Super Bowl) for Brett Favre in August and now traded five players for Sanchez. To me, this doesn’t seem like an efficient way to build a team. People are saying Sanchez is the type of player “you can build a team around” but how are they going to build with no picks and no cap space?

4. I like the T.O. signing for the Bills – minimal commitment and you get first-year T.O. and contract-year T.O. together at a reasonable price. But jettisoning OT Jason Peters does seem contradictory.

5. For me, the most shocking event of the offseason didn’t involve Jay Cutler. It was Nnamdi Asomugha resigning with the Raiders. Here’s a guy, best in the league, in the prime of his career, who could have played for anyone. Having witnessed the immolation of the Raiders first-hand, he decided to stick around for another three years. If he didn’t sign he may have been franchised a second straight year. That fear, along with the record-breaking deal the Raiders gave him and Asomugha's Nocal roots and residency, were enough to get him to sign.

6. Surprisingly, the Raiders also managed to hold on to punter Shane Lechler, either the best or second best in (the history of?) the league. Again, it was a record-breaking contract that convinced a previously disgruntled player to stick around.

7. Even if you think Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell are the best players available at the time, why not trade the picks and move down ten slots, then get your guys? What’s happening in Oakland just saddens me. If I lived in Oakland, I would just have to root for someone else.

8. Covered the Denver Broncos here.

9. I think the Chargers are primed for a run at a championship. They are loaded at every position. The buzz on Shawne Merriman, LaDainian Tomlinson, and rookies Larry English and Louis Vasquez is nothing but positive.

10. Losing Derrick Mason would have killed the Ravens. He was their offensive MVP last year. They have no one to fill the void. Cam Cameron, my reigning offensive co-ordinator of the year, will have his hands full again.

11. Don’t forget that the Bengals get Keith Rivers, the 9th pick of the 2008 draft, back from a broken jaw.

12. Eric Mangini continues to develop as the Villain amongst NFL coaches, and may even relish that role.

13. The Texans have a lot riding on Matt Schaub’s health. Their backups: Dan Orlovsky, Alex Brink, Rex Grossman.

14. The 2009 Colts will be an interesting case study on how much coaching affects a team.

15. Remember that Jason Jones, a rookie in 2008, had 3.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles filling in for an injured Albert Haynesworth last year against Pittsburgh. Remember that everyone and their mom was on the Pittsburgh bandwagon for that game, which was for AFC homefield advantage, and the Titans pasted the Steelers. Remember that Tennessee was the best team of 2008, and would have been in good position to win a Super Bowl but for a fluky loss to the Ravens in which the Titans held a near 2:1 lead in yardage.