2012 Fantasy Football Preview

This is the logical merge of the two leading topics of this blog over the last six years, which makes sense because this will be one of this blog’s final posts. It’s also the merge of the American summer’s two greatest pastimes: the World Series of Poker and fantasy football drafts. I thought it might be helpful to take a look at some of the key players in 2012 fantasy as a variety of situations, as a poker player might. These categories assume relativity - Jamaal Charles and Andrew Luck are listed together, for example, though you're obviously drafting Charles way ahead of Luck. The presence of players like Luck and Isaiah Pead is only applicable to keeper and/or dynasty leagues.

 

5-Bet All-Ins:

Obvious high-five-the-dealer scenarios you can never fold.

Aaron Rodgers

Tom Brady

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy

Raise UTG:

These are hands you’re opening from any position. You’re always going to play these hands. Just not for stacks.

Greg Jennings

Matt Forte

Andre Johnson

Darren McFadden

Trent Richardson

The Uninvested 4-Bet:

Two guys are battling over a pot and then suddenly, out of nowhere, you come flying in with a strong and unexpected wager and blow them both out of the water – with or without a hand.

AJ Green

DeSean Jackson

Robert Griffin III

Eric Decker

Denarius Moore

Tony Romo

The Squeeze Play:

Everyone sees it coming. It’s transparent, but it doesn’t matter: you’re forcing someone to wake up with a hand. If someone does want to shove in, then fine – let it go. You forced their hand. And if everyone folds, even better.

Michael Vick

Peyton Manning

Adrian Peterson

Brandon Marshall

Jermichael Finley

Check/folds:

You’re taking a look at a flop which bears no resemblance to the cards you’re holding. You’re up against an aggressive player who wants the pot more than you do. Minimize the damage and fold your hand.

Frank Gore

Laurent Robinson

Matt Stafford

Brandon Jacobs

Mark Ingram

Beanie Wells

Chris Johnson

The Light 3-bet:

Some guy has picked up on how tight the blinds are playing, and goes for a middle position steal. One problem: You know what he’s thinking. Re-raise.

Antonio Gates

Hakeem Nicks

Jeremy Maclin

Miles Austin

Fred Davis

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Sidney Rice

The Sighing Laydown:

It makes you sick to fold these hands, but you just don’t have the chips to speculate at this point. The price is a little too high. You could double up on any one of these hands, but most of the time, you’re just going to miss the flop and siphon off chips.

Reggie Bush

Marshawn Lynch

Justin Blackmon

Pierre Garcon

Demaryius Thomas

Victor Cruz

Randy Moss

The Resteal:

A thirtyish guy who’s neither tight nor loose raises in late position. He has to have something to make this raise…but most of the time, he’s not calling a shove. Move your short stack in and pick up a much-needed pot.
  

Philip Rivers

Daniel Thomas

Andrew Luck

Jamaal Charles

Matt Ryan

Jacob Tamme

Button Raise:

These are hands you’re generally going to play for one purpose: to steal the blinds. If you look down at one of them in a spot you’re raising any two, you’re pleasantly surprised. If you do get called, you have a hand that can make a flush or a straight. If you get reraised – if someone wants to put up a fight for any of these guys – you should doublecheck your cards and casually toss them into the muck.

Jonathan Baldwin

Shonn Greene

Carson Palmer

Isaiah Pead

Danny Amendola

Steve Smith (Rams)

Peyton Hillis

James Starks

Santana Moss

Greg Little

Lance Moore

Brandon Weeden

Late Position Limp:

You’re filling out your roster. You have starters allotted at every position, whether they’re drafted or planned. You just need a few dudes who you could use in an emergency. Dudes whom you could imagine a slightly overexcited Bob Papa play-by-playing to a 20-yard touchdown scamper on a Thursday-nighter in December. Dudes who would be immediately searched for in your fantasy league by six desperate managers upon their superior’s ACL tear – but unsuccessfully searched for because said dudes have been quietly lingering at the end of your bench since the August draft.

Jerome Simpson

Austin Collie

Kendall Hunter

Mike Williams (TB)

Ronnie Hillman

Eddie Royal

Andre Caldwell

Chad Henne

LaMichael James

Evan Royster

Brandon LaFell

Bet In The Dark:

You don’t know what’s coming. But it really doesn’t matter. Your hand is good enough to bet no matter what comes. Don’t be afraid of scare cards.

Maurice Jones-Drew

The Tilted Big Blind Defend:
You lost the last hand you played in exasperating fashion. You’re steaming. You’re trying to reclaim the chips you just lost, and everyone knows it. You defend your big blind with something you wouldn’t normally play in hopes of flopping a monster, knowing you’re opponent will pay you off if you hit – cause he knows you’re tilting too.

Blaine Gabbert

The Float:

You don’t have much, but then, your opponent probably doesn’t either. There is some distant chance of making a flush or straight, but more importantly, you might be able to pick up the pot on a later street without any resistance. Take a gander at a turn card and see what develops.

Tim Tebow