Wednesday, August 22, 2012

2012 Fantasy Football Preview

This is the logical merge of the two leading topics of this blog over the last six years, which makes sense because this will be one of this blog’s final posts. It’s also the merge of the American summer’s two greatest pastimes: the World Series of Poker and fantasy football drafts. I thought it might be helpful to take a look at some of the key players in 2012 fantasy as a variety of situations, as a poker player might. These categories assume relativity - Jamaal Charles and Andrew Luck are listed together, for example, though you're obviously drafting Charles way ahead of Luck. The presence of players like Luck and Isaiah Pead is only applicable to keeper and/or dynasty leagues.

5-Bet All-Ins:
Obvious high-five-the-dealer scenarios you can never fold.

Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy

Raise UTG:
These are hands you’re opening from any position. You’re always going to play these hands. Just not for stacks.

Greg Jennings
Matt Forte
Andre Johnson
Darren McFadden
Trent Richardson

The Uninvested 4-Bet:
Two guys are battling over a pot and then suddenly, out of nowhere, you come flying in with a strong and unexpected wager and blow them both out of the water – with or without a hand.

AJ Green
DeSean Jackson
Robert Griffin III
Eric Decker
Denarius Moore
Tony Romo

The Squeeze Play:
Everyone sees it coming. It’s transparent, but it doesn’t matter: you’re forcing someone to wake up with a hand. If someone does want to shove in, then fine – let it go. You forced their hand. And if everyone folds, even better.

Michael Vick
Peyton Manning
Adrian Peterson
Brandon Marshall
Jermichael Finley

You’re taking a look at a flop which bears no resemblance to the cards you’re holding. You’re up against an aggressive player who wants the pot more than you do. Minimize the damage and fold your hand.

Frank Gore
Laurent Robinson
Matt Stafford
Brandon Jacobs
Mark Ingram
Beanie Wells
Chris Johnson

The Light 3-bet:
Some guy has picked up on how tight the blinds are playing, and goes for a middle position steal. One problem: You know what he’s thinking. Re-raise.

Antonio Gates
Hakeem Nicks
Jeremy Maclin
Miles Austin
Fred Davis
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Sidney Rice

The Sighing Laydown:
It makes you sick to fold these hands, but you just don’t have the chips to speculate at this point. The price is a little too high. You could double up on any one of these hands, but most of the time, you’re just going to miss the flop and siphon off chips.

Reggie Bush
Marshawn Lynch
Justin Blackmon
Pierre Garcon
Demaryius Thomas
Victor Cruz
Randy Moss

The Resteal:
A thirtyish guy who’s neither tight nor loose raises in late position. He has to have something to make this raise…but most of the time, he’s not calling a shove. Move your short stack in and pick up a much-needed pot.
Philip Rivers
Daniel Thomas
Andrew Luck
Jamaal Charles
Matt Ryan
Jacob Tamme

Button Raise:
These are hands you’re generally going to play for one purpose: to steal the blinds. If you look down at one of them in a spot you’re raising any two, you’re pleasantly surprised. If you do get called, you have a hand that can make a flush or a straight. If you get reraised – if someone wants to put up a fight for any of these guys – you should doublecheck your cards and casually toss them into the muck.

Jonathan Baldwin
Shonn Greene
Carson Palmer
Isaiah Pead
Danny Amendola
Steve Smith (Rams)
Peyton Hillis
James Starks
Santana Moss
Greg Little
Lance Moore
Brandon Weeden

Late Position Limp:
You’re filling out your roster. You have starters allotted at every position, whether they’re drafted or planned. You just need a few dudes who you could use in an emergency. Dudes whom you could imagine a slightly overexcited Bob Papa play-by-playing to a 20-yard touchdown scamper on a Thursday-nighter in December. Dudes who would be immediately searched for in your fantasy league by six desperate managers upon their superior’s ACL tear – but unsuccessfully searched for because said dudes have been quietly lingering at the end of your bench since the August draft.

Jerome Simpson
Austin Collie
Kendall Hunter
Mike Williams (TB)
Ronnie Hillman
Eddie Royal
Andre Caldwell
Chad Henne
LaMichael James
Evan Royster
Brandon LaFell

Bet In The Dark:
You don’t know what’s coming. But it really doesn’t matter. Your hand is good enough to bet no matter what comes. Don’t be afraid of scare cards.

Maurice Jones-Drew

The Tilted Big Blind Defend:
You lost the last hand you played in exasperating fashion. You’re steaming. You’re trying to reclaim the chips you just lost, and everyone knows it. You defend your big blind with something you wouldn’t normally play in hopes of flopping a monster, knowing you’re opponent will pay you off if you hit – cause he knows you’re tilting too.

Blaine Gabbert

The Float:
You don’t have much, but then, your opponent probably doesn’t either. There is some distant chance of making a flush or straight, but more importantly, you might be able to pick up the pot on a later street without any resistance. Take a gander at a turn card and see what develops.

Tim Tebow


Blogger Ryan Wanger said...

Can Jordy Nelson be the guy who sits down in a Hawaiian shirt but it takes you two years of playing with him to realize that he is a shark in disguise?

2:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One of the last posts for this blog? What kind of teaser/anti-teaser is that? Does this have anything to do with the Office going off the air after this season?
A few questions you should answer before signing off, which we hope you don't follow through with:
Are you really betting on the NFL again this season?
Is Dwyte Pilgrim good enough to be called the black Phil Ivey?
Is Africa really as far away as it looks on the map?

2:24 PM  
Blogger Spencetron said...

Where is Megatron?

3:32 PM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

1. Like raising Jordy in middle position...a nice king-queen suited that won't flop a flush like it did last time, but has a good shot at hitting top pair
2. New blog coming
3. Betting on the NFL..."just for fun"...but substantial wagering. Hint: Jaguars +2200 to win AFC South. 4. Dwyte is one of my favorites & a top-5 weak-field tournament player
5. Africa is closer than it looks, literally & figuratively
6. Megatron is a raise UTG...just don't go overboard. Like Jordy & Victor Cruz, he won't repeat last season.

6:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This has got to be one of the worst blog posts ever. I can't imagine why you would waste peoples time with this.

- Jesse

11:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Comparing an accordion to a glacier would make more sense than this blog.

Justin Sadauskas

2:15 PM  
Blogger Anthony said...

Neat blog post...It will be interesting to see how things pan out at the end of the season.

2:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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3:26 PM  

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