Broncos vs. Patriots

As I've gotten older I've come to analyze issues more scientifically. So I will just present a number of facts as to why the Broncos should beat the Patriots tomorrow.

• The Broncos won the AFC West, a strong division, with a 13-3 record. The Patriots won the AFC East, easily the weakest division in the AFC, with a 10-6 record.
• The Broncos beat the Patriots 28-20 Week 6 in Mile High after jumping out to a 28-3 lead in the third quarter
• The Broncos scored 395 points during the regular season; the Patriots scored 379
• The Broncos gave up 258 points this season; the Patriots gave up 338
• The Broncos averaged 360 yards per game while giving up an average of 313. The Patriots averaged 352 yards per game while giving up an average of 330.
• The Broncos averaged 159 yards rushing per game. The Patriots averaged 94.
• The Broncos gave up an average of 85 yards rushing per game. The Patriots gave up an average of 99.
• The Broncos second leading rusher, Tatum Bell, ran for 921 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. The Patriots leading rusher, Corey Dillon, ran for 733 yards and averaged 3.5 yards per carry.
• Bell ran for 114 yards on just 13 carries in the teams' first meeting. In that game the Patriots leading rusher was Patrick Pass with 74 yards.
• While Tom Brady passed for 744 more yards and tossed 8 more touchdowns than Jake Plummer, they were very close in terms of efficiency. Brady completed 63% of his passes this year, while Plummer completed 61%. Brady averaged 7.6 yards per pass while Plummer averaged 7.4.
• The Broncos went 3-1 against playoff teams. The Patriots went 2-3.
• The Patriots lost to the San Diego Chargers aka "the best team ever to have missed the playoffs" at home by 24 points in their only meeting. The Broncos swept the Chargers.
• The Broncos just had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots.
• The Patriots went 6-9-1 against the spread this season. The Broncos went 11-4-1.
• The Broncos went 8-0 at Mile High this season; the Patriots went 5-3 on the road.

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I won a $4300 pot I had a 4.3% chance of winning, and a $4200 pot I had a 64.4% chance of winning. Without either of those today would be a losing session.

Today: +3757

Year to date: +10074