NCAA Futures Bets

It is now officially college basketball season.

This year features the most putrid, untalented, pathetic collection of college basketball teams to ever compete for a title. Everyone sucks. Duke and UConn are the only teams I would even call decent, and I don't think either could give last year's Final Four teams a game. Teams like Villanova and Gonzaga are roughly equal to where they were last year, but will be seeded a few lines higher this year. 2-5 seed terrors from last year like Oklahoma State, Arizona, Michigan State, and Louisville will be nonexistent this March. The fact that the Colorado Buffaloes were able to crack the national rankings says it all.

I believe this repugnance is going to lead to a wild NCAA tournament. 10 seeds are going to be closer to 2 seeds in talent than ever before. 3 seeds will be so weak that 14 seeds will give them games. There will be little difference between 5 seeds and 12 seeds. The winners of the 8/9 games will have a legitimate shot at beating the 1 seed in their next game. Double-digit seeds could make the Final Four. It's going to be a crapshoot, and the teams that go far are going to be the teams that get hot at the right time.

With this hypothesis in mind, I made sixteen long-odds futures bets on teams to win the NCAA championship. I wouldn't call these teams "dangerous" or "underrated"; rather, they are the few teams out there I believe are not overrated.

Texas (7-1)
I've watched and followed them all season, and feel like I've got a pretty good handle on where they're at. I think winning six games in the NCAAs is very plausible. 1 seed in Bracketology right now.

Florida (18-1)
Just so the decade-long March gambling tradition of the Gators biting my head off can continue. 3 seed right now.



Ohio State (30-1)
Perhaps the most underrated team out there, at least by the pollsters. 6 seed right now.



UCLA (40-1)
They seem to be coming on strong right now, have loads of talent, and might be able to sneak up to around a 3 seed if they can keep running over a weak Pac-10. 4 seed right now.


LSU (50-1)
A 3 seed right now. Enough said.



Kansas (50-1)
Among the five most talented teams in college. Young, NBA-loaded teams have a history of winning the tourney. They may have more future pros than any other team, and are finally gelling. 6 seed right now.


Tennessee (50-1)
Everything about them seems dangerous, and top 5 seed seems likely. #3 RPI right now. 3 seed right now.



Iowa (70-1)
A #4 seed right now at 70-1, plus a history of March runs, plus a lot of tough players. My second favorite pick. #6 RPI right now. Big Ten leaders. 4 seed right now.



George Washington (70-1)
A top ten team getting 70-1 to win it all. My #1 pick. 4 seed right now.



Michigan (75-1)
Another team that seems to be coming together just in time to win me a WSOP buy-in. Good combination of guards and big men. 7 seed right now.


North Carolina (75-1)
Way too much talent for those odds. Had to snap them up before they shock Duke on Wednesday. 5 seed right now.


Miami FL (200-1)
They have the guards to beat anyone in March. 10 seed right now.


Alabama (300-1)
Always streaky and unpredictable in March. Lost their best player but just beat LSU. Great price. 8 seed right now.



Temple (300-1)
Always peaks at the end of the season, always gives good teams trouble, and always capable of clocking teams in the tourney. "Next Four Out" right now.



Wichita St (500-1)
Consistent all season long and a good bet to make the tournament. Anything's possible from there this year. 9 seed right now.


Southern Illinois (500-1)
A history of toughness and tourney upsets. Always dangerous. 12 seed right now.