2009 NFL Preview Part One: Moon's Fantasy Primer

Draft Do's and Dont's

At the end of the 2008 NFL season, the top five scoring players in a standard-rules fantasy football league were Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers – all quarterbacks. #6 was running back DeAngelo Williams, followed by three more quarterbacks – Peyton Manning, Matt Cassel, and Donovan McNabb. The next three were RB Michael Turner, Andre Johnson (2008’s top wide receiver), and RB Matt Forte.

An analysis of this top twelve gives us an outline of fantasy football’s fundamental composition. The first thing we must understand is the principal of limited resources. There is no way you can draft a top-flight quarterback, two great running backs, two #1 wide receivers, and a sterling tight end in your fantasy football league. Resources are limited in fantasy football drafts. So you will have to make sacrifices. Choosing what position to sacrifice early in the draft will determine the path of your entire draft, so it puts extra emphasis on making the right decisions with your first three picks.

The fundamental structure of most fantasy football leagues puts a premium on running backs. If you think about your typical NFL offensive formation, there is one quarterback, one tight end, two wide receivers, and one tailback. Yet in fantasy football, most leagues have you start two running backs along with two receivers, one tight end, and one quarterback. Generally there is a flex position, which depending on your league, will usually be WR/RB or WR/TE. If your league uses a WR/RB for the flex, this puts even more emphasis on the running back position. This all means that running backs are acutely scarce.

The other reason why running backs are disproportionately valuable in fantasy football is that most leagues award a whopping six points per running or receiving touchdown. A touchdown is worth six times as many points as a ten yard gain, no matter where that touchdown is scored from. Usually quarterbacks receive four points for passing touchdowns, just two thirds the value given by receivers and running backs. When you consider that more touchdowns are scored on the ground than through the air, it elevates the value of running backs even further.

One final consideration is that running backs get injured more often than any other position. This makes finding and holding onto a strong producer even more challenging and important.

So although quarterbacks put up the biggest numbers in fantasy football, running back is the more essential position. It makes more sense to draft running backs in the first few rounds than quarterbacks.

Now let’s look at wide receivers. Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson were the only wide receivers who finished the season amongst the top 29 fantasy performers (225-275 points in a .5pt/rec league). Then came a rash of wideouts – Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, Antonio Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and Terrell Owens (all between 206 and 225 pts). Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Lance Moore, Dwayne Bowe, Santana Moss, Hines Ward, Vincent Jackson, and Eddie Royal made up the next tier, players between 183 and 196 fantasy points. After a small fourth tier sprinkling (Derrick Mason, Kevin Walter, Bernard Berrian, Donald Driver, Laveranues Coles), wide receivers are a dime a dozen. There are tons of guys available, players who are hard to separate. Differentiating these sort of players (last year Jerrico Cotchery, Ted Ginn, Santonio Holmes, etc) will have little impact on your fantasy football season. It will not be hard to acquire this sort of receiver (hopefully as your #2 WR or flex) during the season. Last year, for example, I used Donnie Avery, Davone Bess, and Ginn (all plucked off waivers for free during the season) as #2 WRs after Chad Ochocinco busted and Laveranues Coles was injured.

So when thinking about wide receivers, we need to identify the players who will rise out of the pack. Getting Derrick Mason ahead of Braylon Edwards wouldn’t have won the league last year, but choosing Greg Jennings instead of Edwards might have. One reason I had such a strong season last year was Larry Fitzgerald, whose consistently strong numbers repeatedly gave me a matchup edge at WR #1. It is hard to win a league without a true #1 wide receiver.

Now, looking at last year’s top wideouts, we find that most were drafted pretty high. Most of the top wide receivers were drafted correspondingly. The three true studs, Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Johnson, generally went in the first few rounds. Amongst the second tier, Antonio Bryant was the only sleeper. The only low picks who elevated to tier three were Lance Moore and Eddie Royal (both undrafted in most leagues). So this tells us that if we want top wideouts (unlike running backs and quarterbacks), we are probably going to have to draft them early.

So there is a premium in the early rounds on running backs and #1 receievers. So, generally speaking, many shrewd fantasy drafters believe the most sensible position to ignore early in the fantasy draft is quarterback. The problem with drafting a quarterback in the first few rounds is that you won’t be able to use that pick on a running back or top-flight receiver, and those players are so hard to get a hold of. But you might be able to hit big on a late-round QB. Last year, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, and Phil Rivers – four of the top five QBs and overall players in the final fantasy numbers – all went late in most drafts. Some high upside QBs you might find available later in this year’s draft: the four Matts – Schaub, Ryan, Hasselbeck, and Cassel; Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards, and whoever emerges as Cleveland’s starter.

Remember that if you take this route, you must quickly back up your late rounder with another high-upside guy, and then you may even want to add a third. In a recent mock draft, I took three consecutive quarterbacks in rounds eight through ten – Edwards, Hasselbeck, and Orton. The thought here is that hopefully one of the three will hit big.

Last year I used this strategy, grabbing RBs and WRs with my first six picks, then selecting Marc Bulger in the seventh round immediately followed by Jon Kitna in the eighth. Did this work? Of course not – both were complete busts. But I added Chad Pennington to the fold, and later Tyler Thigpen (both via waivers). Pennington finished in the top ten while Thigpen put up a series of big games down the stretch. In fact, if I had not sat Thigpen for Matt Schaub (another waiver find, released by an owner frustrated with his injuries) in the championship game, I would have won the league. Why? Because I stocked up on backs and receivers (Tomlinson, Fitzgerald, Turner, Ochocinco, Forte, Coles) with those first six picks – and they came through.

Looking back to last year, Tomlinson and Fitzgerald were obvious choices. Turner and Forte were the key picks. How and why did I wind up with these guys? I chose Turner over Torry Holt, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Jamal Lewis, Laurence Maroney, and Brandon Jacobs, because in fantasy the name of the game is upside. Those other guys are proven performers who would likely give me solid numbers (though Holt and Maroney were total busts), but anything was possible with Turner. He was an unknown starting at running back, as was Forte. Steve Slaton, who I grabbed much later in the draft, was #2 on the depth chart behind the old, broken-down Ahman Green.

There is no glory in a fifth place fantasy finish, so it’s better to go after an unknown quantity with a chance to get some action rather than a proven mediocre player. So who are the Turners and Fortes of 2009?

There is only one player this season who fits the Turner/Forte profile: Arizona’s rookie Beanie Wells. Beanie isn’t even listed as the starter right now – behind Tim Hightower – but anyone who has seen the two run knows Beanie will be the one getting the carries.

While there might not be a Turner or Forte out there (unproven but clear starters on their teams) there are several possible Steve Slatons. While almost every backup running back is an injury away from fantasy stardom, a number of particularly opportunistic situations exist. Here’s a look at the prospects for the league’s backup backs (sleepers in red):

Ahmad Bradshaw playing behind Brandon Jacobs. The Giants love running the ball – last year Jacobs and Derrick Ward both went over 1,000 yards for the G-men. Bradshaw added 355 yards and a TD in limited action. Bradshaw averages 6.1 yards per carry for his career, and the idea of Jacobs playing sixteen games this season is laughable.

Like Bradshaw, Felix Jones of Dallas boasts huge ypc numbers and sits behind a violent runner who probably won’t survive the season unscathed.

The Eagles don’t have much behind Brian Westbrook, so rookie LeSean McCoy becomes eminently draftable.

Ladell Betts has never impressed me, but the chances of Clinton Portis’s body breaking down at some point seem alarmingly high.

Glen Coffee instantly becomes a fantasy beast if Frank Gore goes down.

Edgerrin James, signed this week by the Seahawks, is intriguing simply because we know Julius Jones isn’t that great and Seattle cut TJ “Touchdown Vulture” Duckett. Justin Forsett is in the mix as well.

The Rams backups stink, but since Steven Jackson is likely to go down at some point, you should at least know the name Kenneth Darby.

Matt Forte miraculously made it through 2008 unharmed; if he gets injured, Kevin Jones is a capable player.

Maurice Morris impressed me last year in Seattle and now moves to Detroit to back up Kevin Smith.

If Ryan Grant runs as poorly as he did last year, Brandon Jackson is slated to take over in Green Bay.

The solid Chester Taylor gets the nod in Minnesota if Adrian Peterson, a very violent runner, goes out.

Jerious Norwood, perhaps the most frustrating fantasy running back of the last three years, will get more time if Michael Turner gets hurt. Norwood has averaged 5.8 ypc for his career.

Jonathan Stewart put up 836 rushing yards and ten touchdowns in 2008 while splitting time with fantasy’s #1 RB, DeAngelo Williams.

Pierre Thomas should get the majority of the carries this year in New Orleans, while Reggie Bush will likely catch more passes. #3 Mike Bell probably isn’t draftable but should be snapped up immediately if anything happens to Bush or Thomas.

Tampa Bay’s situation is somewhat murky; Derrick Ward is the man to draft first there, while keeping an eye on his health along with Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams.

Fred Jackson will start the first three games for Buffalo while Marshawn Lynch serves a suspension. Jackson runs hard.

Ricky Williams will probably put up some consistent, if not overwhelming, numbers in Miami.

Differentiating between Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk is impossible.

Leon Washington, who led the NFL in all-purpose yardage last season, is a million times better than Thomas Jones. Shonn Greene was drafted in the third round to eventually replace Jones.

Denver’s situation is almost as murky as New England’s; Knowshon Moreno has the highest upside, Correll Buckhalter is currently the starter, LaMont Jordan has the largest career totals, and Peyton Hillis is a sick beast who is just too good to keep off the field.

Baltimore’s threesome of Ray Rice, Le’Ron McClain, and Willis McGahee is somewhat messy; all can score touchdowns, but none are explosive.

Bernard Scott fits the Steve Slaton profile, though he may not beat out Brian Leonard for the chance to back up crappy Curtis Benson.

James Davis is my favorite deep sleeper. He might be the best back on the Browns. Jerome Harrison is draftable as well.

Rashard Mendenhall is talented, and Willie Parker gets hurt a lot.

Ryan Moats or Chris Brown could be in line for a big season if something happens to second-year back Steve Slaton.

Rookie Donald Brown will get action – a lot of action if oft-injured Joseph Addai gets hurt.

Maurice Jones-Drew is slated to lead the league in touches; if he were to get hurt, Alvin Pearman or rookie Rashad Jennings will take over. Keep a close eye on that situation.

Javon Ringer is an electric rookie who would be one of the hottest sleepers if not for Chris Johnson and Lendale White.

There are a hundred places you can go to find fantasy player rankings for the upcoming season. Checking those out, and preparing your own spreadsheet, is mandatory. Something to think about while sifting through the rankings is potential. Particularly late in the draft, you should be looking for guys with the potential to explode. Finding a halfway decent contributor on the waiver wire for WR #2, backup quarterback, or tight end is usually not too difficult, so you should be greedy with your picks, going for guys with the potential to explode. You want players who can give you a leg up in their matchup with the other team. Conversely, you don’t want to go too high on guys who maxed out last year and can’t possibly duplicate those numbers. Here’s who I feel have significant upside or downside based on where they’re currently being ranked or mock-drafted across the major fantasy sites:

RB

Upside:
Adrian Peterson (potential to break every record)
Kevin Smith (a monster if he can get some TDs)
Ryan Grant (could get a lot of red zone action)
Joseph Addai (still #1 RB on a good offense)
Julius Jones (clear #1)

Downside:
Michael Turner (can’t score as many TDs this season)
Chris Johnson (watch out for Javon Ringer)
DeAngelo Williams (can’t score as many TDs this season)
Brandon Jacobs (likely to get injured)
Clinton Portis (miles adding up on him and his line)
Thomas Jones (bad player on potentially bad offense)
Marshawn Lynch (out first three games and could lose a lot of action to Fred Jackson)
Lendale White (nothing but warning flags)
Reggie Bush (may not see the field much because of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell)
Cedric Benson (sucks)
Tim Hightower (sucks hard)

WR

Upside:
Calvin Johnson (may have a real QB)
Greg Jennings (could finish as #1 WR)
Dwayne Bowe (could be #1 in targets)
Vincent Jackson (perfect situation)
Chad Ochocinco (A monster every year but last – now healthy)
Bernard Berrian (If Favre can still throw a big upgrade at QB)
Lee Evans (one of the most talented WRs in football)
DeSean Jackson (coming off a strong rookie season – most rookie WRs struggle)
Eddie Royal (ditto)
Santana Moss (led all WRs in fantasy production the first quarter of last year)
Anthony Gonzalez (should get a lot of action)
Torry Holt (Jacksonville’s #1)
Lance Moore (coming off a huge season)
Devin Hester (the Cutler factor)
Josh Morgan (San Fran’s #1)
Ted Ginn Jr (getting better)
Domenik Hixon (NY’s #1)
Chris Chambers (a career “upside” guy who has never burst through)
Greg Camarillo (playable last year before hurt)
Mark Clayton (contract year)
Chris Henry (flies)

Downside:
Larry Fitzgerald (Kurt Warner injury)
Andre Johnson (oft-injured as is his QB)
Steve Smith (high-variance)
Chad Ochocinco (yes he's on both lists)
Antonio Bryant (issues galore…one year wonder?)
Muhsin Muhammad (super old)

QB

Upside:
Aaron Rodgers (perfect system, stud WRs)
Matt Ryan (lots of positive buzz in preseason and great weapons)
Matt Cassel (anything could happen)
Carson Palmer (could be a throw-first offense)
Kyle Orton (McDaniels, Marshall, Royal, bad defense)
Matt Hasselbeck (huge ’07 numbers)
Trent Edwards (in same situation as Cutler, Rivers 365 days ago)
Jason Campbell (make or break)

Downside:
Peyton Manning (diminished WRs)

TE

Upside:
Jason Witten (put up monster numbers before injuries last year)
Kellen Winslow (still just 26 years old)
John Carlson (coming off a big rookie season with weak QB play)
Dustin Keller (actually a juicy situation after careful consideration)
Visanthe Shiancoe (could become Favre’s favorite)

Downside:
Tony Gonzalez (lot of mouths to feed)
Tony Scheffler (system doesn’t throw much to TEs, oft-injured)

Defense

Upside:
San Diego (soft schedule, aggressive plan)

Finally, here are some WRs, TEs, and QBs you probably shouldn’t be drafting but should monitor as the season goes along, ready to snap them off the waiver wire:

Mark Bradley
Brandon Pettigrew
Mike Walker
Troy Williamson
Earl Bennett
Daunte Culpepper
Martellus Bennett
Laurent Robinson
Johnnie Lee Higgins
Randy McMichael
Michael Clayton
Dennis Northcutt
Matt Leinart
Dante Rosario
Dwayne Jarrett
Pierre Garcon
Austin Collie
Deon Butler
Chase Coffman
Jeff Garcia
Chris Simms