The NBA Finals

Note - almost all of the NBA portion of this was written on Thursday afternoon, before Game 1 of the series, and before reading the Bill Simmons column on the series. The rest was written on Friday afternoon, a day after Game 1 and a reading of the Simmons column. I promise any thoughts were my own and not plagiarized.

It's been a satisfying NBA Playoffs, though my favorite teams (Denver, Detroit, and Phoenix) fell a bit short. There have been many exciting games, and the quality of play has been pretty high (at least in the West). What I like best about the NBA Playoffs is that the best team almost always wins. I think it's pretty clear that at this point, Dallas is the best team in the West and Miami is the best team from the East. The winner of this series can confidently be called the best team in the NBA. The same cannot be said of the champions of the NHL, NCAA basketball, or the upcoming World Cup.

I think Dallas is going to win this series. I think Miami's run through the Eastern Conference may have been less impressive than it appears. Miami needed 6 games to beat the Bulls, a team that went exactly .500 during the regular season. The Heat then dispatched New Jersey in 5 after getting blown out at home in game 1. New Jersey was certainly one of the best teams in the East this year, but had a scoring differential of only 1.4 pts a game during the season. New Jersey is a solid team, but was never considered to be a real contender for a championship. Finally, the Heat rolled over the Pistons in 6 games. The Pistons went 64-18 during the regular season, the best record in the NBA. They had also won the Eastern Conference each of the past two seasons (and the Finals in 2004) with the same Big Five nucleus.

None of this is news to anyone, and it is impossible for me to give statistical evidence as to why the Heat are overrated. But I watched the games, and this is why I think Dallas will win the Finals:

• Dwyane Wade played so ridiculously well in the Detroit series, it is impossible to expect him to play that well against Dallas. Guards are not capable of consistently shooting above 60%. It's a fact. No one has ever done it for a reasonable period of time and no one ever will. It's just impossible to shoot that well. Wade got hot against Detroit, but generally he's not the world's greatest shooter. Even if he's the best player in the world right now (not an unreasonable thought), he shouldn't be expected to shoot 60%, ever.
  
• Contrary to popular opinion, Shaq is not a dominant center. His overall numbers since jetting to Miami are really pretty unspectacular. While he is still capable of carrying his team at times, such as Game 6 against Detroit or the 30/20 he threw up against the Bulls, these games come along far less often than his usual workmanlike performances.
  
• There is no way to prove this, but I think Detroit was playing pretty mediocre basketball by the time they staggered into the Eastern Finals. Most of their top guys were not shooting very well and they didn't look as hungry as the Cavs or Heat. I don't think this was the same team that went 64-18 during the regular season.
  
• Dallas just beat two of the NBA's five best teams. Duncan was playing his A-game in that series, which many people may not realize. Finley was also playing well. I think San Antonio was playing at a higher level this year than last, when they beat the Pistons (who beat the Heat) in the Finals. Basically I have a hunch that the Heat snuck into the Finals by beating an average Pistons team masquerading as a great team. The Mavs, on the other hand, beat two excellent teams that may have been underrated. Again, this is just from watching games, and there is not much empirical evidence for any of this.
  
• Dirk is unstoppable.
  
• The Mavs role players are so much better than the Heat role players. This was extremely obvious in Game 1, even with Josh Howard having a below-average game. Antoine Walker was abysmal in Game 1 and routinely submarines the team with bad plays. He has many games where the team would have been better off if he had not been available to play. Jason Williams cannot be relied upon as a point guard, Udonis Haslem disappears at times, and James Posey possesses little offensive skill. They are all more flawed than Mavs like Terry, Stackhouse, and Harris. Also, Howard is significantly better than any Heat role player. And Gary Payton is arguably the worst player to log significant minutes in the 2006 playoffs, for any team. He is shooting 29.6% on his three-pointers in the playoffs, despite nearly all of them wide open. That's about the same percentage as I shoot them at the rec center.
  
• In good and evil battles, good usually wins. When my roommate first saw Pat Riley on tv, he said that he looked like a villain from Sin City. This is without knowing how shady Riley's actions have been throughout his career. By contrast, Avery Johnson represents all that is good about sports.
  

The Prediction: Dallas in 6.

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I'm certainly not qualified to write any sort of World Cup preview, but I will be watching a lot of games and every second of U.S. action. Even for a casual soccer fan like me, the World Cup is one of the most exciting events in sports.
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I am probably going to stake the Wolf at the Party 2k NL. Preparations have already begun. He will likely be playing on APotIsAPot, just like Paul used to play as GnightMoon.
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My poker aggression is at an all-time high. The goals outlined in the "Maniacism" post have basically been reached, and now I am trying to fine-tune things. I still have a long way to go before reaching Remmy/Patrik Antonius levels of dominance, but the days of nutpeddling are long gone.

Gamblegambel and I wagered a steak dinner on our June hourly rates. I got off to an incredible start but hit a rough patch a couple days ago. It will be an interesting battle, but only if I get to the minimum of 40 hours for the month that we set. It's stressful to play long sessions when you are playing wild at 5 tables, and I usually can't get through more than a couple hours. With the sports distractions and WSOP preparations this month, it figures to be a quiet one on Party Poker.

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Mandalay Bay WPT: -10,200
Gold Coast 4-8 limit Sunday evening: +350
Monday afternoon: 2 hrs, +11,593
Monday night: 3 hrs, +2353
Tuesday night: 2 hrs, +5058
Wednesday afternoon: 1.5 hrs, -2039
Wednesday night: 2 hrs, -5285

Year to date: 118,897