The Behemoth of American Sports

For a while it was college football, then college basketball, then pro basketball. Somewhere along the line pro football developed into my favorite sport to follow. There are a lot of reasons – a level of strategic complexity not found in the other major sports; speed, power and athleticism lending semi-comedic absurdity and jawdropping watchability to the game; the popularity and consistent competitiveness of the Denver Broncos, unmatched by the other local pro teams; the popularity of pro football amongst other professional poker players; and most importantly, the NFL’s week-to-week schedule that allows me to follow the league closely without putting in diehard hours.

So the NFL is my favorite. I’m fired up for the season. For the first time, I will be the proud owner of my very own fantasy team (more on that after our delayed draft later this week).

This was originally meant to be a season PREview published before the season started, but I wound up going deep in Saturday’s tournament with 75% of it written. You’ll have to trust me that all of these prognostications were formulated before Sunday. On to the rankings and playoff predictions:

PUNCHLINES
32. Jets
Just to prove I really didn’t fabricate these rankings after the first week’s games.
31. Saints
See above. I like Bill Simmons’ comment about how Reggie Bush’s first season has no ceiling and no basement.
30. Texans
30th in the NFL in offense in ’05, 31st in defense, and for some reason I have them behind the
29. Niners
32nd (last) in the league in total offense AND total defense, as well as passing offense and passing defense. Pretty remarkable really.
28. Raiders
It really gives me pleasure to see the Raiders, Al Davis, and Randy Moss struggle. I’ve always been a fan of Aaron Brooks though, believe it or not. I think he could really kick ass on a good team, but sadly this is not it and he will continue to be remembered as a failure.
27. Titans
I still feel like Vince Young is like 90% of Mike Vick, and Vick hasn’t really proven himself as a top QB yet.
26. Vikings
The four quarterbacks on Monday Night Football tonight: Brad Johnson, Mark Brunell, Philip Rivers, Aaron Brooks. The announcers: Mike Tirico, Tony Kornheiser, Joe Theismann. And I assume Mike Patrick is involved in the other game. Needless to say I did not watch the games.

SIGNS OF LIFE
24. Lions
Jon Kitna is my fantasy sleeper. I could see a 4,000 yard season.
23. Packers
I thought they had a chance, due to a weak schedule, but now I don’t. This is just depressing.
22. Cardinals
Amazingly Arizona was the only team in the NFL to finish in the top ten in both offense and defense last year. They also had perhaps the greatest season in field goal kicking history from Neil Rackers (40/42 on FGs, 20/20 PATs) and still found a way to go 5-11. There are lessons to be learned here. First, running the ball is the most important thing in the NFL. The Cards were dead last in rushing last year (and first in passing). Second, red zone efficiency decides seasons. The Cards had the worst red zone O (because they couldn’t run the ball because of their crappy O-line) and the 24th red zone D last year. Finally, turnovers are the single most important statistic in winning and losing football games, and Arizona had a whopping 37 of them last year. Their defense was third in the NFL in takeaways and they still had a -11 turnover differential. Run the ball, stop the run, don’t give the ball away. That’s how you win in the NFL, and the Cardinals haven’t been doing it. And oh yeah, I’ve thought for years Edgerrin James is the most overrated player in the NFL.
21. Browns
Just a really boring team. Who’s their flashiest player, Braylon Edwards? Whatever happened to Dennis Northcutt?
20. Bills
In ’05 they had the 28th ranked offense, 29th ranked defense, and their quarterback is still J.P. Losman.

OVERRATED
20. Bucs
I swear I had this category and these rankings before Sunday. And get it through your heads, people. Chris Simms sucks. He sucks. He has always sucked. He’s never been good. He never will be good. He is not a winner.
19. Chiefs
Dick Vermeil is the most underrated coach in football. Herm Edwards is one of the most overrated.

PLAYOFF HUNTERS
18. Giants
Right as I’m writing this I hear John Madden say: “You look at Peyton and he puts it right on your numbers, you look at Eli and...not so much.” Twenty seconds later he sailed one five feet over Amani Toomer’s head.
17. Cowboys
This team is two players – a better quarterback and one more playmaker on defense – from competing for a Super Bowl. In the NFL two players can make the difference between a champion and an also-ran.
16. Redskins
This team is two players – a better quarterback and one more playmaker on defense…
15. Jaguars
Apparently the Jags went 12-4 last year. It’s amazing how you can forget things like that, just like you can forget that teams without any skill position players better than Matt Jones don’t tend to have too much success.
14. Dolphins
Daunte Culpepper is a fumbler. He fumbles. I don’t mean metaphorically. He gets hit, he drops the ball, the other team gets it. Sometimes they pick it up and run down the field gleefully. Oh, and by the way, the defense was not in the top half of the NFL last year.
13. Falcons
Looking like the NFC’s Super Bowl representative after that Week One crushing of the Panthers.
12. Seahawks
@Detroit, Zona, NY Giants, @Chicago, Bye, @St. Louis, Minnesota, @KC, Oakland, St. Louis, @San Fran, Green Bay, @Denver, @Zona, San Fran, San Diego, @Tampa. Gonna be hard to miss the playoffs. Really not much reason to expect anything more than that.
11. Eagles
“Last year is buried in a casket, and the casket doesn’t need to be opened up for any DNA tets” – Brian Dawkins. Thanks for that, Brian. Some men were put on this earth to play football. This is not a team to wager on or against for at least six weeks.
10. Rams
A real good shot at winning their next four (@San Fran, @Zona, Detroit at home, @Green Bay) to get to 5-0 before a home clash with the Seahawks. And the season ends like this: San Fran, Zona, and Chicago at home in three consecutive weeks, then @Oakland, Washington at home, and @Minnesota to end. This could be an eleven win team even if they’re only okay.

UNSURE
9. Bengals
The NFL’s hardest schedule and a 28th ranked defense that doesn’t appear to have gotten much better. It won’t be easy to improve on last year.
8. Chargers
A possible sleeping giant. This team is absolutely loaded. I’ve always liked Philip Rivers and LT is #1 on my fantasy board.

SOLID
7. Bears
Another team that deserves some more hype. Obviously a bit lacking in the offensive skill positions but the defense could be one of the best in NFL history.
6. Broncos
+ Javon Walker – Trevor Pryce – Mike Anderson + 1yr on Rod Smith’s legs = a negative number.
5. Ravens
Look at this lineup.

CONTENDERS
4. Panthers
As evidenced by week one, never, ever, never, bet on or against Carolina.
3. Steelers
Something just doesn’t feel right.
2. Colts
Amazing that I could have them this high without any semblance of a decent running back. There are college teams that have MULTIPLE running backs better than anyone playing for the Colts.
1. Patriots
Obviously the wide receiver position is questionable at best. But I think they are still the most complete team in the league, and both the running game and the defense should be much better than last year.

Playoff Predictions

Wild-Card Round:
(3)Patriots over (6)Chargers
(5)Ravens over (4)Broncos
(3)Rams over (6)Falcons
(4)Eagles over (5)Seahawks

Divisonal:
(5)Ravens over (1)Steelers
(3)Patriots over (2)Colts
(1)Panthers over (4)Eagles
(2)Bears over (3)Rams

Championship Games:
(3)Patriots over (5)Ravens
(1)Panthers over (2)Bears

Super Bowl XLI:
Patriots 27, Panthers 19