Handicapping the Remaining Survivors
As usual, I'm fired up for Survivor. Last night's episode featured one of the all-time great "semi-intentional" comedy moments that make the show so watchable (the Rocky allusion), one truly hysterical clueless moment (Lisi bragging about her perceptiveness moments after the immunity idol was discovered a few feet away from her sleeping body), and a vintage mental meltdown (Li
si, one week after Rocky did the same). Now that those two idiots have been removed, the tribes are ready to merge, and as Chau Giang would say, "The game is on." Here is my rundown of the odds each remaining castaway has at winning the first prize, along with Bodog's odds:
Earl - 2.5:1 (Bodog odds - 1:1)
Although Earl is one of the strongest Survivors in recent memory, has complete control of his tribe, will be a tough out in the individual challenges down the stretch, and has a 50% share of an immunity idol, 1:1 is going overboard. With so many tough competitors remaining there is no way Earl is even money to take this thing down.
Alex - 3:1 (Bodog - 7:1) 
This Ethan clone and Sole Survivor prototype has everything necessary to win the million. The only problem is he is on a disintegrating tribe heading into the merge with a numbers disadvantage. It will be interesting to see if Alex can make a move to seduce a couple players, perhaps Stacy and Cassandra.
This Ethan clone and Sole Survivor prototype has everything necessary to win the million. The only problem is he is on a disintegrating tribe heading into the merge with a numbers disadvantage. It will be interesting to see if Alex can make a move to seduce a couple players, perhaps Stacy and Cassandra.
Yau-Man - 4:1 (Bodog - 3:1)
The Yau has already proven to be one of the most resourceful players in the game's history. He may already have this thing by the balls only we don't know it yet. DNFWYAU.
Michelle - 5:1 (Bodog - 13:1)
I like Michelle's game a lot. The unabrasive, attractive, good-naturedly-scheming girl has a long history of success in Survivor, and Michelle plays the part to perfection. She has never been mentioned as a
possible victim, and likely won't for at least a few more weeks. I think she's almost a lock for the final five. Then life becomes more difficult as she has to dig in to get to the vote and then convince a jury she is worthy of the mil. Michelle will have to prove she is deserving, where Becky failed so miserably last season.
Michelle - 5:1 (Bodog - 13:1)
I like Michelle's game a lot. The unabrasive, attractive, good-naturedly-scheming girl has a long history of success in Survivor, and Michelle plays the part to perfection. She has never been mentioned as a
possible victim, and likely won't for at least a few more weeks. I think she's almost a lock for the final five. Then life becomes more difficult as she has to dig in to get to the vote and then convince a jury she is worthy of the mil. Michelle will have to prove she is deserving, where Becky failed so miserably last season.Edgardo - 7:1 (Bodog - 7:1)
Strong, confident, and rational, but not as articulate as Alex or Earl.
Boo - 10:1 (Bodog - 10:1)
Boo appears to have a little bit of game, a little bit of athleticism, and a decent support network. The problem is, there are players in the game with a LOT of these qualities, and he will probably eventually get offed by either t
he Michelle/Earl braintrust or the Alex/Edgardo alliance.
Boo appears to have a little bit of game, a little bit of athleticism, and a decent support network. The problem is, there are players in the game with a LOT of these qualities, and he will probably eventually get offed by either t
he Michelle/Earl braintrust or the Alex/Edgardo alliance.Stacy - 15:1 (Bodog - 11:1)
I question Stacy's ability to win a jury vote. She might (too early to tell, really) have the game needed to make some big moves and could potentially slip into the final four, but no one really seems to like or respect her.
I question Stacy's ability to win a jury vote. She might (too early to tell, really) have the game needed to make some big moves and could potentially slip into the final four, but no one really seems to like or respect her.
Mookie - 18:1 (Bodog - 8:1)
Mookie may already be drawing dead, as his charmless personality might give him no chance at beating anyone in a final vote.
Mookie may already be drawing dead, as his charmless personality might give him no chance at beating anyone in a final vote.
Dreamz - 20:1 (Bodog - 7:1)
Anyone who is betting Dreamz at 7:1 at this point should have their head examined. One of the least cerebral players in Survivor history, Dreamz has no alliance possibilities down the line, no immunity idol, no sign of craftiness, no eloquence for the jury, and no shot.
Cassandra - 25:1 (Bodog - 3:1)
I can only assume these Bodog odds are a misprint. Cassandra fits the profile of the typical useless unobjectionable coattail-rider who has no shot at first place.
I can only assume these Bodog odds are a misprint. Cassandra fits the profile of the typical useless unobjectionable coattail-rider who has no shot at first place.
posted by GnightMoon @ 12:38 AM
8 Comments:
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I think Cassandra has better odds than you're giving her... though not by much. Remember Cirie from 2 seasons ago? Same uselessness in the wilderness and not too good in challenges, but she was in a good alliance and knew how to work people. If she only could've built a fire she would have made it to the finals!
Yes she would have made it to the finals...and lost.
I might've been even harder still on Stacey. Unlike Cassandra, she doesn't even seem to think strategically. Remember that Dreamz and Cassandra (perhaps along with Boo) are looking like swing voters after the merge.
edgardo made this huge deal about being great at archery and how he wouldn't say that if it weren't true, and then he put up this completely weak effort anchoring his team.
7-1 seems generous.
-alex
p.s. obv his archery skills don't matter, just have him pegged as a choker/weak competitor at this point.
Yau put his tribe on his straight as an arrow back and carried them to immunity in what was obviously supposed to be a stacked challenge because of Edgardo's supposed archery skills. I gotta love him after burying a fake immunity idol. I really want to see somenone find that after the merger (probably Dreamz) and try and use it.
Agreed 100% with Spence.
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