The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada

This is the kind of movie that makes me want to write screenplays. Best movie I've seen in a long time.

___

This weekend (2k NL, small buy-in NLHE and PLO8 tourneys, big buy-in tourneys): +1159
Year to Date: + 25826

ZeeCheat

*Courtesy of The Bag

Bubble Hell

For the Colorado Buffaloes mens basketball team:

Jerry Maguire: How's your head?
Rod Tidwell: Bubblicious.

I am out here for you. You don't know what it's like to be ME out here for YOU. It is an up-at-dawn, pride-swallowing siege that I will never fully tell you about.

Anyone else would have left you by now, but I'm sticking with you. And if I have to ride your ass like Zorro, you're gonna show me the money.

You are hanging on by a very thin thread and I dig that about you.



To head coach Ricardo Patton:

I got a shelf life of ten years, tops. My next contract's gotta bring me the dollars that'll last me and mine a long time. Shit, I'm out of this sport in 5 years. What's my family gonna live on?



To guard Richard Roby:

That's how you become great, man. Hang your balls out there!

How'm I doing? I'm sweating dude! I'm sweatin' my contract! I'm sweating Bob Sugar calling me, telling me I'm missing the big endorsements by being with you! THAT'S how I'm doing - I'm sweating dude!




11/18 NC Wilmington W 73-54 1-0
11/21 at Colorado State L 83-82 1-1
11/26 St. Mary's (CA) W 73-54 2-1
11/29 at Pennsylvania W 78-60 3-1
12/3 Cal Poly W 93-75 4-1
12/7 Utah W 76-52 5-1
12/17 UC Irvine W 96-80 6-1
12/20 at TCU W 77-59 7-1
12/22 Mercer W 117-74 8-1
12/31 Dartmouth W 83-65 9-1
01/3 Savannah State W 116-52 10-1
01/7 at No. 16 Texas L 89-64 10-2 (0-1)
01/11 Kansas L 75-63 10-3 (0-2)
01/14 at Missouri W 74-71 11-3 (1-2)
01/18 Baylor W 81-48 12-3 (2-2)
01/21 at Oklahoma State W 80-78 13-3 (3-2)
01/25 Nebraska W 81-59 14-3 (4-2)
01/28 Kansas State W 79-75 15-3 (5-2)
02/5 at Iowa State L 96-79 15-4 (5-3)
02/8 at Texas A&M L 61-58 15-5 (5-4)
02/11 Texas Tech W 66-64 16-5 (6-4)
02/15 No. 19 Oklahoma W 84-75 17-5 (7-4)
02/18 at Kansas State L 72-60 17-6 (7-5)
02/22 at Nebraska L 93-77 17-7 (7-6)

02/25 Missouri 1:30 PM
03/1 at No. 18 Kansas 9:00 PM
03/4 Iowa State 9:00 PM
___

Tuesday night (tournaments): -325
Thursday: +2084
Friday evening: +1978

Year to date: +24667

The Plot Thickens

San Diego is now a real possibility, and Shooting Stars is not out of the question. The tables were soft as a baby's butt tonight. Let's hope it continues.
___

Last night (one tournament): +141
Tonight: +9352

Year to date: +20930

New Favorite Hand

From the early stages of a smallish $100 tourney on Party Poker:

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ 6s, Td ]
Possum109 calls (60)
illnature1 raises (120) to 120
kmkmed folds.
Dr_Lewiskidd folds.
BlindPuppy calls (120)
INPB21338 folds.
Equusasinus calls (120)
poong_un_ah folds.
EASTLE folds.
APotIsAPot calls (60)
Possum109 calls (60)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Tc, Th, Ts ]
APotIsAPot checks.
Possum109 checks.
illnature1 bets (200)
BlindPuppy folds.
Equusasinus folds.
APotIsAPot calls (200)
Possum109 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
APotIsAPot bets (60)
illnature1 raises (265) to 265
APotIsAPot raises (660) to 720
illnature1 calls (455)
** Dealing River ** : [ 3s ]
APotIsAPot bets (1625)
APotIsAPot is all-In.
illnature1 calls (1625)
Creating Main Pot with $5720 with APotIsAPot
** Summary **
Main Pot: 5720
Board: [ Tc Th Ts 3h 3s ]
illnature1 balance 2350, lost 2665 [ Kc Ah ]

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Tc, 6h ]
Possum109 calls (200)
illnature1 raises (400) to 400
kmkmed folds.
Dr_Lewiskidd folds.
Billy532 folds.
INPB21338 folds.
poong_un_ah folds.
EASTLE folds.
APotIsAPot calls (200)
Possum109 calls (200)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6d, 8s, 6s ]
APotIsAPot checks.
Possum109 checks.
illnature1 bets (400)
APotIsAPot raises (1000) to 1000
Possum109 folds.
illnature1 calls (600)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jd ]
APotIsAPot bets (1333)
illnature1 calls (1333)
** Dealing River ** : [ Jh ]
APotIsAPot bets (2002)
illnature1 calls (2002)
** Summary **
Main Pot: 9970
Board: [ 6d 8s 6s Jd Jh ]
illnature1 balance 929, lost 4735 [ Qc Qs ] [ two pairs, queens and jacks -- Qc,Qs,Jd,Jh,8s ]

Hands By Popular Demand

This is one of the ugliest I've ever seen:

Seat 1: LitleBastrd ( $2723.50 )
Seat 2: gcnmoo ( $2213 )
Seat 3: nubaseball04 ( $7516.75 )
Seat 4: digo32 ( $500 )
Seat 5: hotmark777 ( $2000 )
Seat 6: SHOWDABLUFF ( $2862.50 )
Seat 7: newcastlekb ( $4723.50 )
Seat 8: TF1111 ( $3006.50 )
Seat 9: hsinpei ( $3037 )
Seat 10: bigbetjim ( $1980 )
bigbetjim posts small blind [$10].
LitleBastrd posts big blind [$20].
** Dealing down cards **
gcnmoo folds.
nubaseball04 calls [$20].
digo32 folds.
hotmark777 folds.
SHOWDABLUFF folds.
newcastlekb raises [$75].
TF1111 folds.
hsinpei calls [$75].
bigbetjim folds
.LitleBastrd folds
.nubaseball04 calls [$55].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 2c, 9d ]
nubaseball04 checks.
newcastlekb bets [$150].
hsinpei folds.
nubaseball04 raises [$450]
newcastlekb calls [$300].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
nubaseball04 bets [$1200].
newcastlekb is all-In [$4198.50
nubaseball04 calls [$2998.50].
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
nubaseball04 shows [ 2h, 2d ] three of a kind, twos.
newcastlekb shows [ Qd, Kh ] a straight, nine to king.
newcastlekb wins $9549 from the main pot with a straight, nine to king.

I really liked this one:

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Kh, Ad ]
NMDynasty folds.
hsinpei folds.
GUILDOO calls (20)
morello05 calls (20)
lalo777 folds.
PVanInwagen raises (110) to 110
APotIsAPot raises (300) to 300
slothr0p folds.
Concatenate folds.
GUILDOO folds.
morello05 folds.
PVanInwagen calls (190)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8h, Qh, Ts ]
PVanInwagen bets (275)
APotIsAPot calls (275)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Th ]
PVanInwagen checks.
APotIsAPot bets (454)
PVanInwagen folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $1671

I promised to post this one, which is fairly embarassing:

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Ad, Qs ]
YahtzeeH folds.
will719 folds.
APotIsAPot calls (20)
PiMaster folds.
kerpowski calls (20)
donutboy18 folds.
hsinpei folds.
NMDynasty folds.
PVanInwagen folds.
Concatenate checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qd, 9d, 5c ]
Concatenate checks.
APotIsAPot checks.
kerpowski bets (60)
Concatenate folds.
APotIsAPot raises (145) to 145
kerpowski calls (85)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2c ]
APotIsAPot bets (256)
kerpowski raises (850) to 850
APotIsAPot raises (1574) to 1830
APotIsAPot is all-In.
kerpowski calls (905)
kerpowski is all-In.
** Dealing River ** : [ 3c ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $3867
kerpowski balance $3867, bet $1920, collected $3867, net +$1947 [ 5d 5s ] [ three of a kind, fives -- Qd,9d,5d,5s,5c ]

I had an uneventful, card-dead go of it in the Million Guaranteed this afternoon. I am quite upset at PartyPoker right now. Actually I'm always upset at PartyPoker but my current beef is their "new and improved" tournament structures which resulted in the Million Guaranteed lasting all of six and a half hours! All this commotion over the new structures and they totally blow it, as usual. The antes are a joke (inconsequentially low) and the structures just give the illusion of more play when in fact there is even less than ever. I played the 200k Guaranteed as well tonight and lost all my chips in bizarre fashion with 89 against 33 on a 754 board.

I should have won more tonight than I did. I had fairly cold cards but I was the beneficiary of ComeOnPhish feeding me $2600 with QQ against my KK, as well as this:

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ 6s, 6c ]
DaringDuck folds.
NFLTDWWW folds.
slothr0p raises (40) to 40
J10ofHearts folds.
Concatenate folds.
APotIsAPot calls (40)
lonashkeric calls (40)
AnalAce folds.
Sir_ShipAlot folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, Qc, 6h ]
slothr0p checks.
APotIsAPot checks.
lonashkeric bets (1731.50)
lonashkeric is all-In.
slothr0p folds.
APotIsAPot calls (1731.50)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ah ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 7c ]
Creating Main Pot with $3610 with lonashkeric
** Summary **
Main Pot: $3610
lonashkeric balance $0, lost $1771.50 [ Ad Qs ] [ two pairs, aces and queens -- Ad,Ah,Qs,Qc,7s ]

___

Today (including tournaments) -105
Year to date: +11437

Ups and Downs

It's been a frustrating year. As the year began I wrote

2006 is going to be a monster year for me and my career...In 2006 I expect to break through to the elite ranks of the top tournament professionals. I outlined a goal to make $20k in the first couple weeks of the year, and honestly I thought it would be no problem. A month and a half later "Mission 20k" has yet to be completed.

Before this year I'd gone through a protracted slump just once in my life, last summer at the WSOP. A month and a half ago I was shocked if I ever finished a session with a loss. I paid $15,000 out of my pocket to play in a tournament at the Bellagio. That seems so ridiclous to me now. I fully expected to have the bankroll to play every 10k event of the year, and thought I'd be in California right now. Things haven't worked out and it now looks like the next 10k event I'll play might not be until the WSOP main event at the end of July.

It's been humbling. I put GnightMoon #4 in the infamous list of 2k regulars I made a couple months ago. Now I'd put myself around 40th. I used to think I was the best player I knew. Now I wouldn't put myself in the top 5.

But I'm getting better. I've reevaluated all my play. I've swallowed my pride and adapted my game to certain tables and players. I no longer get into pissing contests with the wrong players. I'm much better now at avoiding ugly spots as well as changing the speed of my game. I think I'm learning how to handle rough periods. I'm better at playing against good players. I think I'm probably not as good a player as I was two months ago - because of lowered confidence - but I have a higher ceiling now. In a month or two I might be better than ever.

Here is a partial list of my year to date results so far in 2006:

+6280
-1993 after a 5k loss
+13783 after a 15k+ win
+14977
+6317 after an 8k loss
+10074
-25 after losing 10k in two days
+7014 after an 8k win
+8880
-3400 after two tournaments in Tunica
-8723 after a 5k loss
+3269 after four straight wins
-7192 after losing 10k in one day
-10764
+6031 after four straight wins, two of 6.5k
-3549 after the unluckiest two hours of my career
+10212 after three straight wins including a 10k win
+12379
+2568 after another 10k loss

A 15k win, a 10k win, an 8k win, and two 6.5k wins, mitigated by two 5k losses, an 8k loss, and FOUR 10k losses (five if you include the WPT event in Tunica). Before 2006 I'd never lost 10k in a session before.

Every time I feel like I am about to turn the corner, I've taken a big loss and fallen back down. Several times this year I've felt I was about to go on a tear and run up a stake to go back on the circuit. Every time the floor has fallen through shortly after and I've gone back to the drawing board.

Well, here I am again.

___

Today: +8974

Year to date: +11542

Another Step Back

Of all the disappointing results from this year, this fact is probably the most depressing:

MATPAT and donutboy18 have won more money playing poker in 2006 than I have.

___

Monday night: +2167
Tuesday: -9811

Year to date: +2568

The Wildest Table I Have Ever Seen

I was watching a $2000 PLHE table tonight that had an average pot size of greater than $1300 for over an hour straight. At one point the avg pot at the table was above $2300 and the waitlist was 21 people long. Almost everyone at the table was consistently betting the pot limit at every opportunity, and every single player (and especially the fish) were making all decisions instantaneously. I'll let the hands do the rest of the talking.

redtommy05 raises (60) to 60
SteelSacs folds.
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk calls (60)
shaban folds.
PRGSR calls (60)
Clayrock folds.
Kvelerslange folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Kh, Td, 6d ]
redtommy05 bets (200)
dOOnk folds.
PRGSR calls (200)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ts ]
redtommy05 bets (400)
PRGSR calls (400)
** Dealing River ** : [ Jd ]
redtommy05 bets (402.50)
redtommy05 is all-In.
PRGSR calls (402.50)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $2212
redtommy05 balance $2212, bet $1062.50, collected $2212, net +$1149.50 [ Kc Ah ]
PRGSR balance $539.50, lost $1062.50 [ 5d 5h ]

Kvelerslange folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel raises (60) to 60
dOOnk folds.
shaban calls (60)
PRGSR folds.
Clayrock calls (40)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5d, 9h, 3c ]
Clayrock checks.
gamblegambel bets (187)
shaban calls (187)
Clayrock calls (187)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jc ]
Clayrock checks.
gamblegambel bets (748)
shaban calls (748)
Clayrock raises (3740) to 3740
gamblegambel calls (2892)
gamblegambel is all-In.
shaban folds.
** Dealing River ** : [ 2d ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $8776
gamblegambel balance $8776, bet $3887, collected $8776, net +$4889 [ 5c 5s ]
Clayrock balance $203, bet $3987, collected $100, lost -$3887 [ 9c 3s ]

gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban folds.
PRGSR calls (20)
Clayrock raises (75) to 75
Kvelerslange calls (75)
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
PRGSR calls (55)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8c, Ts, 2h ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock bets (200)
Kvelerslange calls (200)
PRGSR calls (200)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Td ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock checks.
Kvelerslange bets (852)
PRGSR calls (852)
Clayrock folds.
** Dealing River ** : [ Js ]
PRGSR checks.
Kvelerslange checks.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $2556
PRGSR balance $4542, bet $1127, collected $2556, net +$1429 [ Jc 9c ]
Kvelerslange balance $8116, lost $1127 [ As 4s ]

shaban calls (20)
PRGSR calls (20)
Clayrock calls (20)
Kvelerslange raises (130) to 130
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs raises (350) to 350
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban folds.
PRGSR calls (330)
Clayrock calls (330)
Kvelerslange calls (220)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, 6d, 9c ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock checks.
Kvelerslange checks.
SteelSacs bets (1447)
PRGSR folds.
Clayrock folds.
Kvelerslange folds.

redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude calls (20)
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban raises (90) to 90
Clayrock folds.
Kvelerslange folds.
SexyMoFoDude calls (70)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8s, 5d, Js ]
SexyMoFoDude bets (85)
shaban raises (325) to 325
SexyMoFoDude calls (240)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 7s ]
SexyMoFoDude bets (857)
shaban calls (857)
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
SexyMoFoDude bets (728)
SexyMoFoDude is all-In.
shaban calls (728)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $4027
SexyMoFoDude balance $0, lost $2000 [ 8d 9d ]
shaban balance $4106, bet $2000, collected $4027, net +$2027 [ Ts Jd ]

SteelSacs raises (70) to 70
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude calls (70)
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk raises (235) to 235
shaban calls (235)
PRGSR folds.
Clayrock calls (235)
Kvelerslange calls (225)
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs raises (1030) to 1100
SexyMoFoDude folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban folds.
Clayrock folds.
Kvelerslange calls (865)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7c, 7h, Jd ]
Kvelerslange checks.
SteelSacs bets (2015)
SteelSacs is all-In.
Kvelerslange folds.

gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban raises (70) to 70
PRGSR folds.
Clayrock folds.
Kvelerslange folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs calls (70)
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4c, Tc, 6c ]
shaban bets (167)
SteelSacs raises (668) to 668
shaban raises (2004) to 2171
SteelSacs raises (4239) to 4907
SteelSacs is all-In.
shaban calls (2116)
shaban is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Js ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Qd ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $8741
SteelSacs balance $9361, bet $4977, collected $9361, net +$4384 [ Qc Jc ]
shaban balance $0, lost $4357 [ Ac Kh ]

PRGSR raises (40) to 40
Clayrock calls (40)
Kvelerslange folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid calls (40)
SexyMoFoDude calls (40)
gamblegambel calls (40)
dOOnk calls (30)
shaban raises (300) to 320
PRGSR calls (280)
Clayrock calls (280)
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8d, Qc, 5d ]
shaban bets (1117)
PRGSR calls (1117)
Clayrock folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3d ]
shaban bets (563)
shaban is all-In.
PRGSR calls (563)
** Dealing River ** : [ Ad ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $4477
shaban balance $4477, bet $2000, collected $4477, net +$2477 [ As Qh ]
PRGSR balance $1807, lost $2000 [ Ks 8c ]

theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds
.gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban raises (70) to 70
PRGSR folds.
Clayrock folds.
Kvelerslange calls (70)
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7c, Ts, 2s ]
shaban bets (167)
Kvelerslange calls (167)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
shaban bets (501)
Kvelerslange calls (501)
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
shaban bets (1503)
Kvelerslange calls (1503)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $4509
shaban balance $3979.50, lost $2241 [ Qc Ks ]
Kvelerslange balance $9687, bet $2241, collected $4509, net +$2268 [ 7s As ]

gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban raises (70) to 70
PRGSR calls (70)
Clayrock calls (70)
Kvelerslange folds.
redtommy05 raises (300) to 300
SteelSacs calls (300)
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
shaban calls (230)
PRGSR calls (230)
Clayrock calls (230)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ah, 7s, Qh ]
shaban checks.
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock checks.
redtommy05 checks.
SteelSacs checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Tc ]
shaban checks.
PRGSR bets (1527)
Clayrock folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs calls (1527)
shaban folds.
** Dealing River ** : [ 2h ]
PRGSR bets (173)
PRGSR is all-In.
SteelSacs calls (173)
** Summary **Main Pot: $4927
SteelSacs balance $7078, lost $2000 [ Ad 6d ]
PRGSR balance $4927, bet $2000, collected $4927, net +$2927 [ 7c Ac ]

shaban folds.
PRGSR raises (70) to 70
Clayrock calls (70)
Kvelerslange calls (70)
SteelSacs calls (70)
theMTLkid raises (370) to 370
theMTLkid is all-In.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
PRGSR calls (300)
Clayrock calls (300)
Kvelerslange calls (300)
SteelSacs calls (300)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, 2h, 6d ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock bets (600)
Kvelerslange folds.
SteelSacs folds.
PRGSR folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 7c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Tc ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $1877
theMTLkid balance $0, lost $370 [ Qc Js ]
Clayrock balance $3177, bet $970, collected $2477, net +$1507 [ 9h 8h ]

Kvelerslange raises (40) to 40
redtommy05 folds.S
teelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude calls (40)
gamblegambel calls (40)
dOOnk folds.
shaban calls (40)
PRGSR folds.
Clayrock calls (20)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6c, 9h, 3h ]
Clayrock bets (207)
Kvelerslange folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel folds.
shaban raises (828) to 828
Clayrock raises (2484) to 2691
shaban calls (1814.50)
shaban is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 7s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 8d ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $5492
shaban balance $0, lost $2682.50 [ Qh 7h ]
Clayrock balance $6977.50, bet $2731, collected $5540.50, net +$2809.50 [ 9s Kc ]

shaban raises (40) to 40
PRGSR calls (40)
Clayrock folds.
Kvelerslange folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid calls (20)
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel calls (30)
dOOnk calls (20)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5c, Kd, 7h ]
gamblegambel checks.
dOOnk checks.
shaban bets (207)
PRGSR calls (207)
theMTLkid folds.
gamblegambel calls (207)
dOOnk calls (207)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
gamblegambel checks.
dOOnk checks.
shaban checks.
PRGSR bets (1035)
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban raises (2554) to 2554
shaban is all-In.
PRGSR calls (1519)
** Dealing River ** : [ 9d ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $6143
shaban balance $6143, bet $2801, collected $6143, net +$3342 [ 6d 8h ]
PRGSR balance $2264, lost $2801 [ Ah As ]

Kvelerslange folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude raises (60) to 60
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban calls (60)
PRGSR calls (50)
Clayrock calls (40)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3s, 3c, 6c ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock checks.
SexyMoFoDude checks.
shaban bets (237)
PRGSR folds.
Clayrock folds.
SexyMoFoDude calls (237)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kc ]
SexyMoFoDude checks.
shaban checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ Ac ]
SexyMoFoDude checks.
shaban bets (200)
SexyMoFoDude raises (900) to 900
shaban calls (700)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $2511
SexyMoFoDude balance $3314, bet $1197, collected $2511, net +$1314 [ Qc Ad ]
shaban balance $4856, lost $1197 [ 7d 5c ]

SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban raises (70) to 70
PRGSR calls (70)
Clayrock calls (60)
redtommy05 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7c, 8d, 9h ]
Clayrock checks.
shaban bets (227)
PRGSR calls (227)
Clayrock folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
shaban bets (681)
PRGSR calls (681)
** Dealing River ** : [ Jc ]
shaban checks.
PRGSR bets (1076)
PRGSR is all-In.
shaban calls (1076)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $4195
shaban balance $6997, bet $2054, collected $4195, net +$2141 [ 9c Kd ]
PRGSR balance $0, lost $2054 [ 6h Ac ]

SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude calls (20)
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban calls (20)
PRGSR calls (20)
Clayrock raises (80) to 80
CarlyBear folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SexyMoFoDude calls (60)
shaban calls (60)
PRGSR calls (60)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4d, Th, 7h ]
SexyMoFoDude checks.
shaban checks.
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock bets (250)
SexyMoFoDude folds.
shaban folds.
PRGSR calls (250)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 6s ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock bets (525)
PRGSR calls (525)
** Dealing River ** : [ Jc ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock bets (700)
PRGSR calls (700)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $3297
PRGSR balance $1144.50, lost $1555 [ 5s Ts ]
Clayrock balance $11794.50, bet $1555, collected $3297, net +$1742 [ Js Ks ]

theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel calls (20)
dOOnk folds.
shaban raises (90) to 90
Clayrock folds.
CarlyBear raises (175) to 175
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
gamblegambel calls (155)
shaban calls (85)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9h, 5c, 7h ]
gamblegambel checks.
shaban bets (552)
CarlyBear raises (2208) to 2208
gamblegambel folds.
shaban calls (1522.65)
shaban is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Kd ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $4701.30
shaban balance $4701.30, bet $2249.65, collected $4701.30, net +$2451.65 [ 7c 9d ]
CarlyBear balance $524.35, bet $2383, collected $133.35, lost -$2249.65 [ Ad Ac ]

The second worst:

CarlyBear calls (20)
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs calls (20)
theMTLkid calls (20)
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel folds.
dOOnk calls (20)
shaban calls (20)
PRGSR calls (10)
Clayrock raises (140) to 160
SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
dOOnk folds.
shaban calls (140)
PRGSR calls (140)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4d, 6c, 5d ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock bets (500)
shaban calls (500)
PRGSR calls (500)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 6d ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock checks.
shaban checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ Qh ]
PRGSR checks.
Clayrock checks.
shaban bets (1600)
PRGSR calls (1600)
Clayrock calls (1600)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $6857
shaban balance $2478.30, lost $2260 [ Tc 2d ]
PRGSRbalance $1435.70, lost $2260 [ 2s 2c ]
Clayrock balance $15693.50, bet $2260, collected $6857, net +$4597 [ Qc Ah ]

WHOTW

shaban raises (70) to 70
PRGSR calls (70)
Clayrock folds.
CarlyBear folds.
redtommy05 folds.
SteelSacs folds.
theMTLkid folds.
SexyMoFoDude folds.
gamblegambel raises (290) to 300
dOOnk folds.
shaban calls (230)
PRGSR calls (230)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ah, 2h, Tc ]
gamblegambel bets (555)
shaban calls (555)
PRGSR calls (555)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qc ]
gamblegambel checks.
shaban bets (900)
PRGSR calls (710.35)
PRGSR is all-In.
gamblegambel folds.
** Dealing River ** : [ Td ]
** Summary **Main Pot: $4002.70
gamblegambel balance $6994, lost $855 (folded) needless to say the best hand
shaban balance $2319.65, bet $1755, collected $189.65, lost -$1565.35 [ 7h 6h ]
PRGSR balance $4002.70, bet $1565.35, collected $4002.70, net +$2437.35 [ 9h Jc ]

An Encouraging Day

I didn't take a single bad beat yesterday. It was a day in which everything that could go right did go right. When I had kings, they had queens. When I flopped a set and some dumbass felt like paying me off with an overpair (or gutshot) it held up. I'm pleased to say the memo from a couple days ago was received by the appropriate parties and yesterday they began responding:

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Jh, Qd ]
MASTER8857 folds.
JB845 raises (65) to 65
snuffy7 folds.
ladgez folds.
curlysam calls (65)
radicaldude2 calls (55)
APotIsAPot calls (45)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jc, 5s, Th ]
radicaldude2 checks.
APotIsAPot bets (144)
JB845 calls (144) (instantaneously)
curlysam folds.
radicaldude2 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9h ]
APotIsAPot bets (4993.50)
APotIsAPot is all-In.
JB845 calls (731.50) (instantaneously)
JB845 is all-In.
** Dealing River ** : [ 8s ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $2008
Board: [ Jc 5s Th 9h 8s ]
JB845 balance $0, lost $940.50 [ Kh Ts ] [ a pair of tens -- Kh,Jc,Ts,Th,9h ]

I folded pocket kings before the flop yesterday. This was about the third or fourth time I've made this laydown, and I think this was the first time I've done it with nothing invested. This spot was less about knowing someone had aces, and more about avoiding an ugly situation out of position.

Seat 1: nestegg1 ( $1950)
Seat 2: adadfasdfdsa ( $2000)
Seat 3: AssaniFisher ( $1822)
Seat 4: l_D1d_Th1S ( $1960)
Seat 5: greengreedo ( $1717)
Seat 6: Mammon666 ( $1950)
Seat 7: KohSamet ( $875)
Seat 8: dfram ( $7833.83)
Seat 9: APotIsAPot ( $5279.06)
Seat 10: MATPAT ( $2990.50)
APotIsAPot posts small blind (10)
MATPAT posts big blind (20)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Kh, Ks ]
nestegg1 folds.
AssaniFisher folds.
l_D1d_Th1S folds.
greengreedo folds.
Mammon666 raises (80) to 80
KohSamet folds.
dfram raises (250) to 250
APotIsAPot folds.
MATPAT folds.
Mammon666 calls (170)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3c, 7d, 5s ]
Mammon666 checks.
dfram bets (400)
Mammon666 raises (1400) to 1400
dfram folds.

At night I played a few tournaments including the 200k Guaranteed. I hung around with a below-average stack, scrapping and clawing for hours until I hit a rush with about 80 people left and surged into a contending position. I got most of my chips in typical fashion - winning a coinflip with AK, fending off a button steal with a medium ace, waking up with aces after someone had moved in, etc. But there was a hand where I made one of those "stand up and take a bow while the rest of the table applauds", ballsy, do-or die calls:

Seat 1: IShowMyNuts (37987)
Seat 2: Tipyourduke (43156)
Seat 3: joeygoo56 (14712)
Seat 5: soeunman (42993)
Seat 6: NY_Rooster (30198)
Seat 7: beauty2 (38662)
Seat 8: Katod (43680)
Seat 9: APotIsAPot (42541)
Seat 10: Ditka89 (31139)
APotIsAPot posts small blind (1000)
Ditka89 posts big blind (2000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Qd, Jh ]
IShowMyNuts folds.
Tipyourduke folds.
joeygoo56 folds.
soeunman folds.
NY_Rooster folds.
beauty2 calls (2000)
Katod folds.
APotIsAPot calls (1000)
Ditka89 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ac, Qh, 9h ]
APotIsAPot checks.
Ditka89 checks.
beauty2 bets (6000)
APotIsAPot calls (6000)
Ditka89 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4c ]
APotIsAPot checks.
beauty2 bets (30662)
beauty2 is all-In.
APotIsAPot calls (30662)
** Dealing River ** : [ 7h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 79324
Board: [ Ac Qh 9h 4c 7h ]
beauty2 balance 0, lost 38662 [ Kc Jd ] [ high card ace -- Ac,Kc,Qh,Jd,9h ]
APotIsAPot balance 83203, bet 38662, collected 79324, net +40662 [ Qd Jh ] [ a pair of queens -- Ac,Qd,Qh,Jh,9h ]

Shortly after this I lost a heartbreaker when I raised with AQ, a short stack moved in, the big stack in the SB flatcalled, and I called getting huge pot odds. The flop came rags and the SB bet out small. I folded, the SB had AK, the short stack had jacks, and a queen hit the river. If the SB had played his hand differently I would have been chip leader after this. I think his play is actually quite good.

Unfortunately I then went a bit card dead after this and got down to average chips. My last hand was a bit unlucky and a bit marginal, but I think I did everything right:

Seat 1: donflun (233126)
Seat 2: Ivvan (74744)
Seat 4: APotIsAPot (64660)
Seat 5: jdl441 (46853)
Seat 6: pushing247 (74173)
Seat 7: FRANK24_7 (19902)
Seat 8: Tarjei82 (101604)
Seat 9: spacekadet (170528)
Seat 10: maggan2222 (99596)
Tarjei82 posts small blind (3000)
spacekadet posts big blind (6000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Qh, Th ]
maggan2222 folds.
donflun folds.
Ivvan folds.
APotIsAPot raises (13468) to 13468
jdl441 folds.
pushing247 calls (13468)
FRANK24_7 did not respond in time.
FRANK24_7 folds.
Tarjei82 folds.
spacekadet folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9h, Jc, 2s ]
APotIsAPot bets (45500)
pushing247 raises (60705) to 60705
pushing247 is all-In.
APotIsAPot calls (5692)
APotIsAPot is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Jd ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 138320
Board: [ 9h Jc 2s 2d Jd ]
APotIsAPot balance 0, lost 64660 [ Qh Th ] [ two pairs, jacks and twos -- Qh,Jc,Jd,2s,2d ]pushing247 balance 147833, bet 74173, collected 147833, net +73660 [ 9d 9c ] [ a full house, Nines full of jacks -- Jc,Jd,9d,9c,9h ]

27th out of 1550 - just close enough to get excited about the big money. Soon I will get PokerStars going, and maybe FullTilt and UB as well. I may be playing more tournaments than cash games by the summer.

___

Yesterday afternoon: +10078

200k Guaranteed: +1552

Year to date: +10212

Calling All Idiots

ATTENTION MORONS.

If you have a lot of money to give away on Party Poker, this message is for you. This is a reminder that APotIsAPot is a viable candidate to give your money to. It is acceptable to give him a chunk of your stack, half of your stack, or even your entire stack while drawing dead. In fact, you are permitted to rebuy, and give him even more of your money. While it is preferable that you do this with a zero percent chance of winning, any chance less than forty percent is acceptable.

Repeat: APotIsAPot does qualify as an acceptable target for your horrendous plays. Concatenate, Kwickfish, gamblegambel, slothr0p, and KriyaYoga are not your only choices for charity. APotIsAPot is both willing and excited at the chance to destroy your bankroll. Please give him that opportunity.

Thank you.

___

Tonight: +236

Year to date: -3587

Laughably Bad Hands

From tournaments I played this evening.

From the Cabin Fever Freeroll:

Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: LlamaOnFire (715)
Seat 2: saintidaho (1275)
Seat 3: stiesn (2315)
Seat 4: I_EAT_ANTS (455)
Seat 5: F12JK9M (2005)
Seat 6: radiohead999 (1340)
Seat 7: PunkyPickett (4025)
Seat 8: neville226 (1125)
Seat 9: F_Mayweather (1715)
Seat 10: X8X8X (2480)
LlamaOnFire posts small blind (15)
saintidaho posts big blind (30)
** Dealing down cards **
stiesn folds.
I_EAT_ANTS folds.
F12JK9M folds.
radiohead999 folds.
PunkyPickett folds.
neville226 calls (30)
F_Mayweather folds.
X8X8X raises (275) to 275
LlamaOnFire folds.
saintidaho folds.
neville226 calls (245)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4d, 9h, 6s ]
neville226 checks.
X8X8X bets (600)
neville226 raises (850) to 850
neville226 is all-In.
X8X8X calls (250)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 3c ]
Creating Main Pot with $2295 with neville226
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2295
Board: [ 4d 9h 6s 5s 3c ]
neville226 balance 2295, bet 1125, collected 2295, net +1170 [ Ad 5c ] [ a pair of fives -- ]
X8X8X balance 1355, lost 1125 [ As Kc ] [ high card ace --]

From the Super Wednesday $150 limit:
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Td, Kh ]
Tuna28 folds.
Spiddler folds.
basradio folds.
bitch_in0_60 folds.
Valyash raises (40) to 40
hukitor folds.
APotIsAPot folds.
Informat calls (40)
BauerPower54 folds.
merzavets raises (40) to 60
Valyash raises (40) to 80
Informat calls (40)
merzavets calls (20)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8c, 6h, Jd ]
merzavets bets (20)
Valyash calls (20)
Informat calls (20)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
merzavets bets (40)
Valyash raises (80) to 80
Informat calls (80)
merzavets raises (80) to 120
Valyash raises (80) to 160
Informat calls (80)
merzavets calls (40)
** Dealing River ** : [ 4s ]
merzavets bets (40)
Valyash raises (80) to 80
Informat folds.
merzavets raises (80) to 120
Valyash folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 990
Board: [ 8c 6h Jd 2d 4s ]
Valyash balance 355, lost 340 (folded)
Informat balance 1225, lost 260 (folded)
merzavets balance 1000, bet 380, collected 990, net +610

From the Super Wednesday $150 limit:

merzavets posts small blind (50)
Tuna28 posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to APotIsAPot [ 7c, 3h ]
Spiddler raises (200) to 200
bitch_in0_60 folds.
Iliketodream folds.
theboz19 folds.
APotIsAPot folds.
witten folds.
THEMADLION folds.
merzavets folds.
Tuna28 calls (100)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, 6d, 4h ]
Tuna28 checks.
Spiddler bets (100)
Tuna28 calls (100)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ts ]
Tuna28 checks.
Spiddler bets (200)
Tuna28 calls (200)
** Dealing River ** : [ 2s ]
Tuna28 checks.
Spiddler bets (93)
Spiddler is all-In.
Tuna28 calls (93)
Creating Main Pot with $1236 with Spiddler
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1236 Board: [ 9d 6d 4h Ts 2s ]
Spiddler balance 1236, bet 593, collected 1236, net +643 [ 5d 5h ] [ a pair of fives -- Ts,9d,6d,5d,5h ]
Tuna28 balance 1760, lost 593 [ 3c Jh ] [ high card jack -- Jh,Ts,9d,6d,4h ]

Poker is so sickening. I see such awful play every time I sit down, and I can't beat the game.

Tonight: -274 (tournaments)

WHOTW

Just saw a truly putrid piece of garbage while watching CRUSSH and his 18k stack on the 2k NL and had to get it off my chest:

Traelen folds.
glberger folds.
Denes11 calls (20)
remmus33 folds.
richalsupav folds.
biggny calls (20)
HardCory raises (100) to 100
CRUSSH folds.
youngkeeper folds.
Denes11 calls (80)
biggny folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, Qc, 6c ]
Denes11 bets (90)
HardCory calls (90)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9h ]
Denes11 bets (125)
HardCory raises (250) to 250
Denes11 calls (125)
** Dealing River ** : [ 5d ]
Denes11 bets (1000)
HardCory raises (1530) to 1530
HardCory is all-In.
Denes11 calls (530)
Creating Main Pot with $3987 with HardCory
** Summary **Main Pot: $3987
Board: [ 7s Qc 6c 9h 5d ]
Denes11 balance $4238.50, bet $1970, collected $3987, net +$2017 [ 8c Jh ] [ a straight, five to nine -- 9h,8c,7s,6c,5d ]
HardCory balance $0, lost $1970 [ Ad Qs ] [ a pair of queens -- Ad,Qs,Qc,9h,7s ]

The Unluckiest Two Hours of My Career

After watching the Duke/Carolina game tonight I fired up a session. I got off to a great start, beating KK with T9 on a QJ9 flop, and won some other decent pots. I then lost 2k with KK against AA in an unfoldable situation, but got it back when I busted pit540 with AT against his A8 on a AT8A board. Eventually I was up about 5k.

The next two hours were without question the unluckiest of my career. This started it:

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ 7h, 7c ]
DawggMann folds.
donutboy18 calls (20)
APotIsAPot calls (20)
dreamerts folds.
JRD312 folds.
tommy88888 calls (20)
LitleBastrd folds.
CRUSSH folds.
chip_chip_ calls (10)
AssaniFisher checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8c, 7s, 8h ]
chip_chip_ checks.
AssaniFisher bets (50)
donutboy18 folds.
APotIsAPot raises (150) to 150
tommy88888 folds.
chip_chip_ folds.
AssaniFisher calls (100)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
AssaniFisher checks.
APotIsAPot bets (302)
AssaniFisher raises (700) to 700
APotIsAPot raises (1198) to 1500
AssaniFisher raises (1362) to 2062
AssaniFisher is all-In.
APotIsAPot calls (562)
** Dealing River ** : [ 3d ]
Creating Main Pot with $4521 with AssaniFisher
** Summary **
Main Pot: $4521 [ 8c 7s 8h 3h 3d ]
AssaniFisher balance $4521, bet $2232, collected $4521, net +$2289 [ 8s Jc ] [ a full house, Eights full of threes -- 8s,8c,8h,3h,3d ]



During the next two hours I also lost the following pots:

• KK vs AA against an unknown player for $1.3k apiece
• Flush under flush twice for ~$800 pots
• A8o called $215 with $40 invested against my JJ, then won $100 more after hitting his hand

Then this:

Dealt to APotIsAPot [ Qd, Qs ]
APotIsAPot calls (20)
seeker2007 folds.
trublupkr raises (80) to 80
dscherer folds.
pit540540 folds.
kerpowski calls (70)
w00t4d0nks folds.
APotIsAPot calls (60)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ As, Qc, 7h ]
kerpowski checks.
APotIsAPot checks.
trublupkr bets (175)
kerpowski folds.
APotIsAPot raises (350) to 350
trublupkr calls (175)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ah ]
APotIsAPot bets (711)
trublupkr raises (1563) to 1563
trublupkr is all-In.
APotIsAPot calls (852)
** Dealing River ** : [ 2d ]
Creating Main Pot with $4083 with trublupkr
** Summary **
trublupkr balance $4083, bet $1993, collected $4083, net +$2090 [ Qh Ac ] [ a full house, Aces full of queens -- Ac,As,Ah,Qh,Qc ]

Guaranteed 2k win there if not for a 2 outer.

• Playing 3 handed I had 9T against KQ and 97 on a Q99 flop in a raised pot, but it came A-A for a split pot.
• Now head up against a bad player I raised with AA and he called. The flop came A24, I checked, he bet, I raised, he reraised, and I called. The turn was a 7, I checked, he bet, I raised, and he moved in for a bit more. I called and he had 53.

A week ago I was depressed because I was worried the games had gotten too difficult and the players had figured me out. Tonight was just plain frustrating because the tables were as soft as I've seen them in a month, and I took a huge loss. The best player in the world would have gotten crushed though if he sat at my computer on this night.

___

Monday evening: +1141

Monday night: +1638

Tuesday afternoon: +211

Tuesday night: -9511

Year to date: -3549

NCAA Futures Bets

It is now officially college basketball season.

This year features the most putrid, untalented, pathetic collection of college basketball teams to ever compete for a title. Everyone sucks. Duke and UConn are the only teams I would even call decent, and I don't think either could give last year's Final Four teams a game. Teams like Villanova and Gonzaga are roughly equal to where they were last year, but will be seeded a few lines higher this year. 2-5 seed terrors from last year like Oklahoma State, Arizona, Michigan State, and Louisville will be nonexistent this March. The fact that the Colorado Buffaloes were able to crack the national rankings says it all.

I believe this repugnance is going to lead to a wild NCAA tournament. 10 seeds are going to be closer to 2 seeds in talent than ever before. 3 seeds will be so weak that 14 seeds will give them games. There will be little difference between 5 seeds and 12 seeds. The winners of the 8/9 games will have a legitimate shot at beating the 1 seed in their next game. Double-digit seeds could make the Final Four. It's going to be a crapshoot, and the teams that go far are going to be the teams that get hot at the right time.

With this hypothesis in mind, I made sixteen long-odds futures bets on teams to win the NCAA championship. I wouldn't call these teams "dangerous" or "underrated"; rather, they are the few teams out there I believe are not overrated.

Texas (7-1)
I've watched and followed them all season, and feel like I've got a pretty good handle on where they're at. I think winning six games in the NCAAs is very plausible. 1 seed in Bracketology right now.

Florida (18-1)
Just so the decade-long March gambling tradition of the Gators biting my head off can continue. 3 seed right now.



Ohio State (30-1)
Perhaps the most underrated team out there, at least by the pollsters. 6 seed right now.



UCLA (40-1)
They seem to be coming on strong right now, have loads of talent, and might be able to sneak up to around a 3 seed if they can keep running over a weak Pac-10. 4 seed right now.


LSU (50-1)
A 3 seed right now. Enough said.



Kansas (50-1)
Among the five most talented teams in college. Young, NBA-loaded teams have a history of winning the tourney. They may have more future pros than any other team, and are finally gelling. 6 seed right now.


Tennessee (50-1)
Everything about them seems dangerous, and top 5 seed seems likely. #3 RPI right now. 3 seed right now.



Iowa (70-1)
A #4 seed right now at 70-1, plus a history of March runs, plus a lot of tough players. My second favorite pick. #6 RPI right now. Big Ten leaders. 4 seed right now.



George Washington (70-1)
A top ten team getting 70-1 to win it all. My #1 pick. 4 seed right now.



Michigan (75-1)
Another team that seems to be coming together just in time to win me a WSOP buy-in. Good combination of guards and big men. 7 seed right now.


North Carolina (75-1)
Way too much talent for those odds. Had to snap them up before they shock Duke on Wednesday. 5 seed right now.


Miami FL (200-1)
They have the guards to beat anyone in March. 10 seed right now.


Alabama (300-1)
Always streaky and unpredictable in March. Lost their best player but just beat LSU. Great price. 8 seed right now.



Temple (300-1)
Always peaks at the end of the season, always gives good teams trouble, and always capable of clocking teams in the tourney. "Next Four Out" right now.



Wichita St (500-1)
Consistent all season long and a good bet to make the tournament. Anything's possible from there this year. 9 seed right now.


Southern Illinois (500-1)
A history of toughness and tourney upsets. Always dangerous. 12 seed right now.

The Super Bowl

It wasn't the most enjoyable viewing experience for me. The game was crappy, as Super Bowls usually are. I think the two week break just kills the game. The long halftime also destroys any momentum and makes the game feel like two. That will likely never change. The crowd was actually more into the game than any Super Bowl I can remember, but the sterility of the fans is usually a problem as well. The commercials seemed particularly unfunny this year. Bottom line - the Super Bowl is a vastly overrated viewing experience. If I had to rank the best sports viewing events, or even if I didn't have to, it would look something like this:


1. The first four days of the NCAA tournament
2. The second four days of the NCAA tournament
3. Championship Weekend/Selection Sunday
4. The World Cup
5. The World Series
6. The Western and Eastern Conference Finals (NBA)
7. The NBA Finals
8. Championship Sunday (NFL)
9. The Winter Olympics
10. The divisional round of the NFL playoffs
11. The second round of the NBA playoffs
12. The ALCS and NLCS
13. The national championship of college football
14. The Final Four and the NCAA championship
15. The Super Bowl
897. The Daytona 500
5689. The Women's NCAA Championship

Anyways, this Super Bowl was particularly difficult because of the money I had riding on the game. If I had 10k on there, it may have been too hard to watch. If I had made the insane "bet-the-farm" wager as I had considered, it would have been the worst three and a half hours of my life. I was unable to enjoy the end, the Steelers coasting to victory, because of the spread threat. This was unfortunate, especially considering I've been driving the Colorado contingent of the Steel Bandwagon all season long. I don't think I'm going to make any crazy wagers on sports in the future, mainly because I think it would lower my enjoyment of the games.

The good news is I now have another $1050 to bet sports with, and I've already started "investing" it. I'll soon explain how, probably tomorrow.

___

Thursday: -401
Tonight: +6686

Year to date: +2972

The Wager

Vegas doesn't allow you to make sports bets over the phone, and I didn't have an account with an online sportsbook until today, so I was able to bet "only" $1100 on my very first official sports bet.

Steelers - 4.5 over Seahawks

Prediction: Pittsburgh 34, Seattle 10

Interesting Tunica Hands

I was so disgusted down in Tunica that I didn't really feel like discussing poker at the time. Last night while trying to sleep I kept thinking about all the hands I played down there and realized I encountered several interesting decisions despite my lack of time at the tables. Here are some of the hands and as always, feedback would be greatly appreciated. Hopefully you can read up until the point in the hand where I have to make a difficult decision, and think about what you would do.

1) 100-200 blinds. Hasan Habib raises in early position to 650 and I call on the button with pocket fours. Some might say, against a good player, I should just fold before the flop. We both have over 20k. The flop comes 765 rainbow and he quickly makes a potsize bet. What's my play?

I thought for over a minute and then decided that folding was probably my best option. Here's why:

My read was that he had a hand that wanted to take it down immediately. I've played with Hasan a fair amount now and I feel like I usually know what he's thinking. I also think he has a pretty good read on me. If he has, say TT, then I have ten outs, which is a decent but not great number. But if one of my outs hits, he may not put another chip in the pot. The implied odds on a 765 board against an overpair/good player are just not there. If he has 88, 99, or 87, I have even fewer outs and could actually get into trouble myself if certain cards hit.

I also felt like there was almost no chance I had the best hand. It just didn't feel like a continuation bet bluff/semibluff at all.

I folded and he showed pocket nines.

2) 100-200 blinds. I limp under the gun with pocket kings. This was probably a poor decision because I was playing very tight. It was unlikely someone would raise my UTG limp. Hasan calls, the small blind maniac Dale Morrow calls, and the big blind Johnny K, who appeared to be a very good player, checked. The flop came T92 rainbow and the blinds checked to me. I bet 600, Hasan folded, Morrow instantly made it 2500, and Johnny K called. What's my play?

I actually thought this was a pretty easy laydown. I was pretty damn concerned Morrow had me beat, and when Johnny K called, I was almost certain I was beat. QJ would make sense but it did not feel like either had QJ. I thought these guys might be wise enough to put me on a big pair here and didn't seem to care. If it was just Morrow I don't think I would lay it down.

I folded quickly. The turn was a queen and Morrow checked. Johnny K bet medium and Morrow quickly folded. Johnny K showed T-2.

3) 200-400 blinds. Tex Barch raises in early position to 1400, Morrow calls, and I call with AsJs in the cutoff. The flop comes 742 with two spades. Barch checks and Morrow immediately bets 5000. I have about 28000 behind. What's my play?

I made it 17000 and they both quickly folded. Morrow showed me 55 and acted like it was a big laydown.

4) $2k shorthanded NLHE at the Grand. I'm off to a fast start and have the most chips at the table. After rocking it up for about twenty minutes I've caught a few hands and it appears like I am trying to run over the table. 25-25 blinds, first level still. We started with 2000 chips and I have about 2700 now. We are playing 5-handed. Melissa Hayden limps UTG and second pos limps. I make it 125 with TT, the blinds fold, and both limpers call. The flop comes QsTh8h with two hearts. They both check to me and I bet 300. Melissa calls quickly. Turn is an offsuit 6. Melissa checks and I bet 750. Melissa again calls quickly. The river is a low heart and Melissa immediately moves in for 1300. What's my play?

This was one of the hardest decisions I've ever had playing poker. I thought for a very long time. While there are a few other possibilities, there are three hands here that Melissa is likely to have.

a) a flush
b) a straight
c) a pair and a straight draw that missed (merely a pair on the river)

a) is certainly a possibility and it would make a lot of sense for her to have this. However it would almost certainly have to be a low flush. She was consistently raising before the flop with any ace, so an ace high flush was unlikely. A king high flush is also unlikely because of the board texture. In fact, if you really think about it, the flush would probably have to be 7 high or lower. Now she would have to have specifically 76s, 65s, 54s. I'm not sure she would play suited one gappers like this, and don't know that she would play them under the gun. 75s, 64s, seem pretty unlikely. So most likely we are talking about 3 different hands, all of which she would have to play specifically like this. It seems kind of unlikely. 7-6 of hearts makes by far the most sense here, and in fact, it might be her single most likely hand.

b) is possible but unlikely. She would have to have J9 or 97, and I don't think she just calls out of position on the turn with a straight. She checkraises all-in I think. It does make sense that she would push on the river, knowing I'm not going to bet since the flush has hit.

c) would make a lot of sense. I basically assumed that is what she had the entire hand. QJ, JT, T9, 98 all fit the profile perfectly: limping under the gun, calling a raise, and then calling large bets on the flop and turn. My physical read of the situation was that she was calling "stubbornly" the entire time, which fits with these hands. However she is a veteran and could have been faking the stubbornness. I also got a physical read she was bluffing the river, but was even more concerned that was a faked tell.

If i called and lost, I would be crippled down to about 400 chips. If I folded I would be in fine shape with around 1700. In the end this made my decision, and I folded. The tournament strategy aspect of the hand is crucial. Having 400 chips would be a disaster. Having 1700 would be okay, and having 3900 would be good. I think having 400 compared to 1700 would be "worse" than having 3900 compared to 1700 would be "better."

The more I think about it though, I think it was a bad fold. There are just two few flushmaking hands she could have, and too many pair + gutshot hands.

5) 25-50 blinds now. I make it 150 on the button with TT and Alex Prendes makes it 525 in the BB. We both have about 1900. What's my play?

This was another brutal decision, and I thought for over two minutes. Folding, calling, and raising all-in are all viable options. This is only the second time he has reraised before the flop, and in fact it's only the third time anyone at the table has reraised preflop. I also had visions of this hand I saw him play on tv where he reraised a guy who stupidly put it in with AQ and Prendes had AA. I didn't have much of a physical read.

I made a big mistake on this hand. I did a poor job of masking my emotions. I was anguished, and I didn't do a very good job of hiding it I don't think. I think it was clear I had a good but not great hand, unless I was acting.

I finally said "I'm all in." He thought for about 20 seconds and called with AQ. I won the race and our table broke about two minutes later.

6) The very first hand at my new table I made it 150 in the cutoff with JhTh and Mark Seif immediately made it 400 on the button. He plays very fast, literally and in the poker gambling-maniac sense. I didn't see how I could fold for just 250 more and called. His raise, combined with his position, made me think he either had a monster or something like 77 or AJ and just wanted to take control. I felt like a hand like JJ or AK would raise bigger.

The flop came T86 rainbow and I checked. He quickly checked behind me and I was almost certain he had no piece of this flop. Mark Seif is a maniac and maniacs do not slowplay overpairs. The turn was a jack and I made a 2/3 pot bet. Seif beat me into the pot. At this point I was pretty sure he had AK, AQ, AJ, or KQ. The river was an ace. What's my play?

There is some merit to betting. A bet is good if Seif will check the river with AK or AQ, because he will likely call a bet with either of these hands. A bet is also good if I am willing to fold if he raises. That way I can decide how much I want to lose on the hand. I feel committed to calling any bet on the river, so why not just make a bet? He probably can't raise me unless he has KQ. It would take quite a sicko to make a value reraise with AJ or even TT on this board.

However, Mark Seif is a sicko. He may also be capable of having stone cold nothing on this board, and may want to bluff if I check. So there is a lot of merit to checking. I did, he bet huge, I immediately called, and he had AJ.

7) Jean-Robert Bellande raises the minimum in second position. The small blind calls and I call in the BB with 86o. The flop comes 844. The SB checks, I check, Bellande makes a potsize bet, the SB folds, and I call. This was a pretty scary situation but I was pretty sure he would not bet an overpair on the turn because of the fours. I was definitely playing it as if I might have a four, and he has never played with me before. However I really didn't think he had an overpair, because of the min raise preflop. That move really made me feel his hand was weakish, and most likely a small pair.

The turn was a K and we both checked quickly. The river was an ace. I checked and Bellande quickly made a large bet. What's my play?

I actually called pretty quickly. The small raise preflop combined with the large bet really made me feel like he had a small pair. I knew at this point he had to be pretty sure I had an eight. And how could I call with just an eight with an ace and a king out there? It seemed unlikely to me that he would make a potsize bet with just an ace against two blinds on that flop, so the ace probably didn't help him I thought.

He had A8o and I lost most of my chips.

___

Yesterday: 0

Year to date: -10674